India Insights: The Impact of the Israeli-Iranian Tensions on India
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In the past few weeks, the Middle East (or “West Asia” as India calls it) was almost on the brink of a regional war as the Iranians and Israelis exchanged missile attacks on each other. While tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv date back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the recent escalations of tensions were the first time the “shadow war” became a “public war.”
Timeline of the Iranian-Israeli Escalation
The immediate cause of the recent escalation was after the Israelis attacked Iran’s embassy in Damascus, the capital of Syria. However, when speaking to CNN, the spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Daniel Hagari, insisted that it wasn’t a diplomatic mission but a building for the IRGC’s Quds Force disguised as a civilian facility. This attack killed about seven Iranian officials, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a senior commander for the IRGC. Additionally, according to Iranian state media, at least 7 Syrian civilians were killed. In response to this attack, the Iranian government “vowed revenge” and accused the US of being involved as well. However, on numerous occasions, Washington has emphasized that it wasn’t involved in the attack nor did it have prior knowledge of it.
Israeli attacks against IRGC personnel in Syria or Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah are nothing new. However, what made this attack different was that it was technically on Iranian soil, and for Tehran, their redline to any Israeli attack was attacking Iranian soil. According to Article 22 of the Vienna Conventions,
“Diplomatic premises are inviolable. Local police or security forces must not enter an embassy without the consent of the ambassador or mission chief. The host country is obliged to protect the premises.”
This law was violated in 1979 when Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and took more than 50 American diplomats hostage for 444 days. Additionally, this law was violated when the Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican Embassy to arrest the former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who sought asylum in Mexico. In response, the Mexican government broke diplomatic relations, accusing Ecuador of violating international law since the embassy is technically Mexican territory.
In response to this attack, the Iranians launched about 170 drones and more than 120 ballistic missiles at Israel on April 13, 2024, of which about 99% of them were shot down. The Iranians justified this response based on Article 5 of the UN Charter (self-defense).
Additionally, it has been widely reported that the Iranians informed the Turks of the attack, who then conveyed it to Washington, as an attempt to provide an offramp to de-escalate the situation. Furthermore, even though the UAE and Saudi Arabia provided intelligence about the attack to the Americans, they emphasized that their countries could not be used by the US to attack Iran. In response to this attack, the Israelis attacked Iran last week. However, the Iranian government has downplayed this incident, signaling a desire to de-escalate. Thus, for now, the Middle East has avoided a regional war, yet tensions between Iran and Israel remain.
India’s Neutral Response
Throughout the crisis, the Indian government’s reaction has been fairly neutral. The official Indian reaction to the Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission was, “We have noted with concern the attack on Iranian diplomatic premises in Syria on April,” and India is “distressed” about rising tensions. On April 12, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs issued a travel warning by saying:
These travel warnings came amid as other countries, such as France and Russia, issued warnings advising their citizens against traveling to Israel, Palestine, and Iran. Later, after Tehran launched its retaliatory attack on Tel Aviv, the official response from the Indian government was:
For the most part, India has had good relations with the Iranians and Israelis. From New Delhi’s perspective, having cordial relations with both countries is in the national interest. The relations with Iran are historical and Iran is an important supplier of energy to India, which has often caused tensions with the US due to American sanctions policies. Recently, the U.S. government sanctioned the three Indian companies Port India Private Limited, Zen Shipping, and Sea Art Ship Management (OPC) Private LTD, for “facilitating” covert sales of Iranian UAVs to Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, from India’s perspective, cutting economic relations with Tehran will only make Iran more dependent on China, India’s primary geopolitical competitor.
At the same time, India buys arms from Israel, and the two have cooperated in economic and technological sectors. The only known instance of the Iranian and Israeli rivalry spilling over to India was in 2012 after an attack near the Israeli embassy in New Delhi, which the Israeli government at the time accused the Iranian government of orchestrating. Additionally, there was a blast near the Israeli Embassy in 2021 and 2023 (which didn’t injure or kill anyone); however, it remains unclear as to who was behind it.
Economic Impact of Middle Eastern Conflict on India
Any escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel and the possibility of a broader conflict in the Middle East will have immense economic implications for India. India is highly dependent on energy supplies from the Middle East, and as the External Affairs Minister Jaishankar noted, a conflict in that region could increase the price of oil. India is already experiencing economic challenges due to the Russo-Ukrainian War. For example, the war disrupted supply and raised the price of key commodities such as cereal, and India’s retail inflation was at an all-time high of around 7.79%.
Hence, any conflict in the Middle East can cause immense economic problems for India as most of the oil supplies from the Middle East pass via the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has repeatedly threatened to block it as a way to impose an economic cost on the West for backing the Israelis (and the Arab Gulf States). As recently as April 14, 2024, the commander of the IRGC’s navy threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz due to its opposition to Israeli presence in the UAE. If this were to occur, it could increase inflation in India and force the Reserve Bank of India (India’s central bank) to keep interest rates high.
Nevertheless, outside of rhetoric, it is highly unlikely that the Iranians would do this, considering that about 80% of Middle Eastern oil goes to Asian countries and Iran’s biggest buyer of its oil is China. Thus, closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause more damage to Beijing and New Delhi than London or Washington, which is against Iranian interests since these Asian countries help Iran mitigate the impact of sanctions.
Additionally, ever since the war between Israel and Hamas started, the Houthis, who are widely alleged to receive Iranian financial and military backing, have attacked ships accused of supporting Israel. When visiting Iran in January, External Affairs Minister Jaishanker emphasized how the attacks on shipping are of “grave concern” and do not benefit anyone. Additionally, on April 13, the Iranian government seized MSC Aries, a ship that is registered in Portugal but, according to Tehran, had ties to Israel. This ship had 17 Indian citizens onboard. After discussing this issue with Iran, the Iranian government has allowed the Indian government to provide consular access to these citizens. Recently, the spokesperson for the MEA, Randhir Jaiswal said,
“These 16 people, we had asked consular access for, which we got. Our officers went there and met. They are in constant touch with their families. Their health is good and they have no problems of any kind onboard the ship. As far as their return is concerned, there are certain technicalities involved, there are some contractual obligations, once that is done, it will depend on that when will they return.”
Additionally, around 7 million Indians work in the Arab Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These workers are a crucial source of remittance money, and according to a report by the World Bank in 2023, the UAE alone contributes about 18% of India’s remittance money. Additionally, around 4,000 Indians live in Iran and around 18,000 in Israel.
Hence, considering these factors, Kallol Bhattacherjee, a senior foreign affairs analyst, may have put it at best by insisting that “in the event of an Iran-Israel war, New Delhi cannot afford to support or oppose either of them.”
