Inside Africa: Foiled Military Coup In Niger Displays Threat Of Insurgency

SOULEYMANE AG ANARA

The West African state was about to make history by conducting the first transfer of power from one democratically elected government to another since its independence from France in 1960. Yet in the early hours of the morning on March 31, a military unit, reportedly from a nearby airbase in the capital city of Niamey, launched an attempted coup. Armed attackers attempted to seize the presidential palace, with the attack being quickly repelled by presidential guards. President-elect Mohamed Bazoum was due to be sworn in just days before the event. 

“The government condemns this cowardly and backward act that had the intention to attack the democracy and the rule of law that our state has embarked upon as we have seen during these elections, which were democratic, free and fair and lauded as such by the international community.” noted a Nigerien diplomatic source to CNN. 

The state has been no stranger to domestic unrest. Niger is known as the world’s poorest country, according to the UN’s development rankings. Since gaining its independence from France in 1960, the state has experienced four coup d’états — in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010. The state was under military rule for a combined 23 years before returning to democracy in 2011. Since then, the Nigerien government has prioritized fighting corruption, increasing transparency and ensuring proper management of the country’s natural resources to foster some level of domestic stability.

In December 2020, the country held the first election to transfer power from one civilian regime to another as former President Mahamadou Issoufou successfully completed his two-term tenure. When election season rolled around on December 27, the results were inconclusive, as no candidate received the constitutionally mandated 50% of the vote to emerge as president-elect. Following a run-off election this past February, Mohamed Bazoum was declared the winner; the opposition candidate Mahamane Ousmane immediately claimed the election was fraudulent, claiming that the entirety of the election was rigged in favor of Bazoum. This in turn has created a deep rift in Niger’s political sector, allowing for opportunists to step in to take advantage of the disarray. 

While there has been an increase in violence within the state since the election results were announced, the attempted coup on March 31 raised concerns to new levels in the volatile country. The event signified the lingering desire to truncate democracy in some sections of the military, posing a significant threat to the democratic process. 

The issue appears to be two-fold: the state faces immense poverty and insecurity. Various key factors appear to be barring Niger from achieving the “dream of democracy.” The first of which is that the state is in the midst of a security crisis. Terrorist organizations tend to capitalize on destabilized state conditions as a means of opportunity. Waves of deadly attacks by militants linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State have continued to occur near the state’s borders with Mali and Burkina Faso in recent months. Jihadists have continued to escalate attacks in northern Tillabéri, resulting in the deaths of dozens of soldiers. Violent criminal groups continue to commit similar attacks, many of which spillover from the Nigerian border. 

Secondly, the state economy is notably one of the worst in the international community. In 2019, the World Bank reported that over 40% of people in the state were living in extreme poverty, a level considered extremely high by the institution. Security analysts argue that poverty often acts as a catalyst for instability, creating the perfect conditions for a coup.

That state has faced its fair share of successive military governments in its history. Though political leaders have taken various steps to stifle discussion about ethnicity in a bid to prevent these issues from dominating the polity in recent years, it hasn’t stopped tensions — ethnic groups, such as the Tuareg, have gone as far as threatening to secede from the state. Prior to Issoufou’s election as president in 2011, the Tuareg ethnic group engaged in constant agitation against previous regimes. Luckily, Issoufou was able to placate members of the ethnic group with political positions. Though Tuaregs have reduced their activities in recent years, ethnicity nevertheless remains a polarizing issue in Niger. 

The democratic transfer of power in a country prone to coups has earned a great deal of praise from the international community, yet there is still a great deal of progress to be made in terms of achieving pure democracy in Niger. Bazoum’s rival Mahamane Ousmane continues to outwardly object to the results of the election, political tensions are still heightened, and attacks by jihadist groups are on the rise. An attempted coup merely signals another indication that division still exists in Niger’s political sector — this being especially true within the security infrastructure and the army. 

It will come down to the state’s new presidential administration to maintain law and order, uniting clashing groups rather than mobilizing them. The role of a leader is a powerful one in the duel for democracy; the new president must learn to build upon past state achievements to foster a more unified Nigerien identity. The transition to democracy is a slippery slope, and though we are witnessing some level of success in Niger, there is still a great deal of work to be done to further stabilize conditions and repair economic problems. Though Niger’s democratic transition is good news, the threat of insurgency remains high.