Inside Africa: The Nile As A Pathway to Prosperity

Laura Boushnak

In the heart of Africa lies a source of promise and contention—the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The construction of Africa’s largest hydroelectric project along the Blue Nile River sparked tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. One of the primary reasons for these tensions was Ethiopia's unilateral decision to build the dam in April 2011 without consulting Egypt and Sudan, downstream countries that heavily rely on the Nile for water resources.

Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 90 percent of its water needs, expressed concerns over the dam’s potential impact on its share of Nile water, which is crucial for its agricultural sector and overall water security. Egypt’s irrigation ministry called Ethiopia's actions “a violation of international laws and norms that regulate projects built on the shared basins of international rivers.” Sudanese leaders followed a similar tone and expressed that the dam project poses a risk to their water flow and agricultural activities. Sudanese Irrigation and Water Resources Minister Yasser Abbas said, “The filling of the Renaissance Dam by one side next July represents a direct threat to Sudan’s national security.”

The $4 billion project is owned by Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO), stands at 145 meters tall, and generates a whopping 6,450 MW of hydropower. Seleshi Bekele, Minister of Water, Irrigation, and Energy of Ethiopia, called the dam “the people’s project.” Ethiopia, which currently lacks mass electric access nationwide, hopes the GERD will help the country reach 100 percent electrification by 2025. However, without a comprehensive agreement around the GERD water resource management and cooperation, prospects of energy independence and economic growth through the Nile’s renewable energy may have to wait. 

The Nile is 4,100 miles long and runs through 11 northeast African countries. The Nile originates from two main tributaries: the White Nile and the Blue Nile. The White Nile begins at Lake Victoria in Uganda, while the Blue Nile originates from Lake Tana in Ethiopia. These two tributaries converge in Sudan's capital city, Khartoum, forming the Nile River, which flows northward through Egypt and into the Mediterranean Sea. The Nile has long been a river that many countries in East Africa have depended on for agriculture, industry, and sustenance needs.

Egypt, often referred to as the gift of the Nile, has heavily relied on the Nile for centuries. An estimated 95 percent of Egyptians live within a few kilometers of the Nile. The Nile has often been the lifeline of Egyptian civilization, serving beyond its commercial use as a transportation route and a source of spiritual significance. For Egyptians, the Nile is intricately tied to the nation's identity, and any challenge to their Nile access directly threatens their very way of life. 

Sudan also shares a similar symbiotic relationship with the Nile River. As the place where the Nile’s two tributaries meet, Sudan holds a pivotal position in the Nile Basin. The river is integral to Sudanese agriculture, providing essential irrigation for crops and sustaining communities along its banks. Moreover, the Nile is a vital transportation route for trade, connectivity,  and commercial activity across the country. 

When Ethiopia decided to start construction on the GERD, Egypt, and Sudan were concerned about restrictions to their water access downstream, as 85 percent of the Nile’s source water comes from the Ethiopian highlands. Egypt and Sudan asked Ethiopia to halt construction on the GERD until an agreement was reached. However, Ethiopia, concerned with its electrical goals, forged forward. Since 2011, negotiations between the three countries, mediated through the African Union, have been off and on and unproductive.  

Yet, the GERD’s concerns have geopolitical implications for the Horn of Africa region and broader impacts on water resource management and international relations. The dam's construction and operation raise critical questions about water resource management, as it will significantly alter the overall flow of the Nile River. Moreover, issues of transboundary water management, sovereignty, and regional stability are at play as tensions rise. 

Nevertheless, many experts are excited about the GERD’s power and possibilities. The large hydroelectric project offers Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia an opportunity for regional integration, sustainability, and prosperity.

Through the development of complementary infrastructure projects such as irrigation schemes, water treatment facilities, and renewable energy initiatives, the three nations can harness the potential of the Nile’s waters to uplift their country’s economies and livelihoods. Sudan, which regularly suffers from massive flooding during the rainy season, could use the dam to help regulate annual Nile floods that have become detrimental to its agriculture and food security. Additionally, as the consequences of climate change become more evident, water management and transparency are increasingly important for all three countries. 

Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have made statements saying they are committed to negotiations, yet it is clear there may soon be a breaking point. In a statement to the press following a GERD UN Security Council meeting in July 2021, Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Arab Republic of Egypt, reiterated Egypt’s commitment to discussions despite Ethiopia's “ twice unilateral actions, which harms the negotiation cycle.”

The African Union and international organizations have made efforts to facilitate dialogue and reach a comprehensive agreement. However, a final resolution to the GERD dispute remains elusive. Organizations like the United Nations, World Bank, and African Development Bank still need to offer technical expertise, financial assistance, and diplomatic guidance to facilitate a successful resolution. 

Ultimately, the GERD dispute is not merely a question of water allocation but a test of political will, diplomatic foresight, and regional solidarity. The Nile is a shared resource with significant value to all its members. Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan and all its supportive figures must approach negotiations cooperatively, which will allow them to harness the Nile’s power for regional economic and human development.