Inside Africa: Future Of Equatorial Guinea As Obiang Reign Ends, The Nation Teeters On The Edge
LUDOVIC MARIN
The stakes are high as Equatorial Guinea nears its most critical moment since Obiang's 1979 coup, and the world is watching closely. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the world’s longest-serving president, is nearing the end of his time in office, and Equatorial Guinea is standing at a crossroads. At 82, Obiang’s age and visibly declining health are pushing the nation toward a potential political shakeup unlike anything it has faced in decades. The question is no longer if the country’s first leadership transition in 45 years will happen—but when—and what that will mean for one of Africa’s most closed and tightly controlled regimes.
Officially, Obiang won his most recent term in 2022, securing over 95% of the vote in an election widely criticized by international observers for its lack of transparency of a free and fair election process. However, with his advancing age and apparent decline, doubts arise about whether he will complete the term, making the next few years crucial.
As the country braces for a new chapter, Obiang's eldest son and current vice-president, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, also known as Teodorín, is the likely successor. Still, his controversial history and lavish lifestyle have cast a shadow over his claim. His run-ins with the law, particularly in France, where he was convicted of embezzling state funds to fuel a life of luxury, have damaged his standing on the world stage. His wealth, including multimillion-dollar estates, sports cars, and private jets, has become a symbol of the country’s broader problem with corruption—where oil revenues enrich a small elite. At the same time, much of the population remains impoverished.
Despite this, Teodorín has steadily consolidated control over key levers of power within the country. His position as vice president gives him authority over the security forces and military, and the military’s role in Equatorial Guinea’s future cannot be overstated. For decades, the armed forces have been the bedrock of Obiang’s regime, ensuring his survival through repression and loyalty. However, in the post-Obiang era, the military could become decisive in determining the country’s next leader. Given his controversial reputation, some military factions may be reluctant to back Teodorín, while others could view him as the only viable option to maintain stability and privilege.
Foreign military influence further complicates the picture. Due to its location and oil wealth, the country's strategic importance has attracted interest from major powers, including the United States and China. Both nations have vested interests in ensuring a stable transition, particularly as political instability could disrupt the global oil market. Concerns are that foreign actors could influence military leaders to ensure the outcome aligns with their economic and security interests.
Equatorial Guinea has long been one of Africa’s most tightly controlled dictoral states, with little space for political opposition or civil society. Under Obiang’s rule, civil liberties have been systematically crushed, and the ruling party, the Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea (PDGE), has maintained an iron grip on power. Yet, with Obiang’s era drawing to a close, the prospect of political instability is growing.
Equatorial Guinea’s path to dictatorship began shortly after gaining independence from Spain in 1968. The newly formed nation initially embraced democratic ideals, electing Francisco Macías Nguema as its first president. However, Macías quickly turned the government into a brutal dictatorship. By 1971, he had consolidated power, declaring himself president for life and eliminating political opposition. His regime, marked by paranoia and widespread human rights abuses, became one of the most repressive in Africa. Tens of thousands of Equatoguineans were either killed, tortured, or forced into exile during his reign, and the economy plummeted as corruption and mismanagement took hold.
In 1979, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, Macías’ nephew and a military officer, led a coup d’état that ousted and executed Macías. Initially presenting himself as a reformer, Obiang promised to restore stability and human rights. However, like his predecessor, Obiang consolidated power and transformed Equatorial Guinea into a one-party state with himself at the center. He maintained control through repression, fear, and control of the nation’s oil wealth, which was discovered in the 1990s. The regime used the country’s immense oil revenues to enrich the ruling elite while the majority of citizens remained impoverished. Obiang's rule became one of the world's longest and most enduring dictatorships.
In the worst-case scenario, a contested power transition could lead to violence, particularly if military factions break ranks or rival claimants emerge. The country has little experience with political pluralism or peaceful transfers of power, making the risk of conflict high if the process is not carefully managed.
Equatorial Guinea’s human rights record has been among the worst in the world under Obiang, and there is little indication that a change in leadership would bring significant improvements. Political opponents are routinely jailed, free speech is heavily curtailed, and the judiciary is firmly under the executive's control. International organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have long called for reforms, but these appeals have been brushed aside.
For the international community, Equatorial Guinea’s leadership transition represents both a geopolitical risk and an economic opportunity. The country’s vast oil reserves make it a key player in the energy markets, and any disruption in production could have far-reaching consequences.
As Teodoro Obiang, now 82, approaches the twilight of his political career, Equatorial Guinea stands on the edge of a new chapter. Whether the leadership transition occurs peacefully or devolves into a power struggle, the coming months will be critical in determining the country’s future. How Equatorial Guinea navigates this delicate moment will have profound implications for its people and place in the global political and economic order.
