Mideast: The Potential of Increased Iranian Influence in Afghanistan
AFP Contributor
As with most other relationships Iran has with its neighbors, its relationship with Afghanistan is complicated. However, the potential for increased Iranian influence may be on the rise as the American presence in the country ramps down—perhaps to the detriment of Afghanistan’s citizenry.
Iran’s relationship with its neighbor Afghanistan has been a tumultuous one, to say the least. In recent history, Iran has provided Afghanistan with substantial economic support, including utilizing foreign direct investments and assisting post-Taliban infrastructure development in the country. Iran stands to gain a formidable and acquiescent partner in the region should a few developments take place.
Afghanistan, an important neighbor and potential ally owing to a sizeable Shi’i minority in the country, maybe more accessible to Iran if the possible withdrawal of a massive number of US forces from the country takes place. This coupled with the ramifications of the recent US-Taliban peace deal, may provide for the emergence of a new sort of relationship between the two countries that although has been complex owing to a tense-then-positive relationship with the Taliban, may mirror the success of the emergence of other pro-Iranian factions within the Middle East and periphery regions.
Iran and the Taliban
When the Taliban emerged in Afghanistan’s political and military arena, it was considered a security threat to Iran. In August 1998, the group, after capturing a northwest Afghani city, massacred numerous civilians and in the days after targeted specific ethnic groups living within Afghanistan, including deliberately those whose background was Shi’i. During the massacre, several Iranian officials were killed and Iran retaliated by dispatching 200,000 troops to their borders; although no full-fledged conflict erupted between Iran and the Taliban.
As years passed and as the Taliban lost their institutional power, Iran began to support the group incrementally through material resources, namely for military purposes. Moreover, the Taliban’s diplomatic behavior has seemingly begun evolving, going so far as appearing to affirm Iran as demonstrated by its condemnation of the targeted killing of Qassim Soleimani in early 2019. This however may have less to do with Iran than it does to have with the United States. Indeed, Iran and the Taliban remain in agreement on one matter— suspicion and denunciation of US interference in the region.
Nevertheless, as a consequence of Iran partially pivoting towards supporting the Taliban its relationship with the official government has suffered. One incident involving the Taliban’s successful and aggressive encroachment into a Southwestern Afghani city, close to the border of Iran, was attributed to the support of Iran and helped confirm suspicions that Iran was supporting the Taliban’s ongoing insurgency campaigns to undermine Afghanistan’s central government.
Iran may follow a pattern of garnering influence that it has used in most other countries in which it has a foothold in —arming an insurgency or militia organization to destabilize the central government and garner popular support from the group as well as the larger Shi’i population of the country who are impelled to support Iran due to historical Shiite disenfranchisement. Considering this pattern has worked in Lebanon, Iraq, and other countries, there is no reason to exclude the possibility that Iran may be attempting to do the same in Afghanistan.
The Future of Afghan-Iranian Relations After Potential US Withdrawal
The potential large-scale withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan may be seen as a positive development from an Iranian perspective. The current Iranian regime, weary of US and other Western presence in neighboring states, can benefit greatly from the elimination of a potential blockade to influence in Afghanistan. This is coupled with the recent US-Taliban peace deal, which has not produced any tangible positive developments as it relates to the current security situation in Afghanistan, but has instead effectively re-legitimized the Taliban and has unwittingly brought the group back into the fold of potential political futures in Afghanistan. More recently, as Biden has become the president-elect of the US, the Taliban has urged the incoming president to stick to the peace deal; this to the chagrin of Afghanistan’s central government which continues to criticize the deal as well as condemn the Taliban and their ongoing violent insurgency operations in the country.
What does this mean for Iran? If the current US administration goes through with its withdrawal announcement and if Biden continues to abide but the Taliban-favoring ‘peace deal’, a political opportunity structure for Iran readily emerges. This is not to say that Iran will definitely pursue a larger role in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, but it cannot be overlooked that recent developments do indeed favor the Iranian state. Looking forward, it seems possible that as long as the Taliban do not target Shi’i populations as they have done in the past and continue to speak in positive terms about Iran, they can be sure of a continuous stream of material support.
Speaking in normative terms, the potential of a more heavy-handed Iranian approach to Afghani relations is indeed a negative development. The danger of (1) an even more instable Afghani state with (2) a struggling central government coupled with (3) the ruthless and human-rights-defying insurgency campaign of the Taliban backed by a (4) formidable regional power will do little to benefit Afghanistan’s citizenry themselves. Indeed, as with other states in the region Afghanistan has suffered tremendously in the past 20 years and a never-ending cycle of internal violence catalyzed by international and regional interference has negatively impacted the country’s population to a devastating extent.
More should be done for Afghanis themselves and is up to the international community and countries who have stuck their hands in the country in the recent past to do more for the Afghani public, at least for the semblance of some sort of stability and security in the country. Iran’s increasing role in Afghanistan should not be taken lightly, and indeed should continuously be observed and scrutinized for the sake of the people living within Afghanistan.
