Mideast: What Will the Hajj under Coronavirus look like?
FAYEZ NURELDINE
Hajj, the Islamic pilgrimage all Muslims are required to take at least once in their lives, will look a lot different this year due to the coronavirus epidemic. What will the consequences be?
The pilgrimage to Mecca, the holiest city for adherents of the Islamic faith, is an annual journey that Muslims performing Hajj (literally “pilgrimage”) make during a specific time in the Islamic calendar. In 2020, Hajj will be taking place from July 28th to August 2nd. This comes at a time where all over the globe, countries, and their populations are dealing with the coronavirus epidemic and its devastating consequences. In recent months, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that the annual pilgrimage will be severally limited this year in consideration of corona. Usually, around 2 million pilgrimages take the Hajj journey every year. However, this year Saudi Arabia will only be permitting 1000 Saudi Arabians to make the pilgrimage while foreign pilgrims will not be permitted, besides those who currently reside in the kingdom. The deadline to apply for Hajj was July 10th and requests to take Hajj were sorted according to how healthy candidates were. In addition, those over the age of 65 as well as those with previous illnesses will not be able to perform the Hajj. Coronavirus testing is also mandatory for those who sought to go on the pilgrimage, And for those who will be able to make the Hajj, protocols will be put in place to prevent the spread of the virus.
Provisions will include physical distancing, a prohibition on touching, and a requirement to wear a face mask during the pilgrimage. This will be in an effort not only to curb the active spread of the virus but also to ensure that latent coronavirus cases will not lead to an increase and spread in infection once Hajj is finished and pilgrims return to their homes.
Cost to the Saudi Arabian Government
The cost of a limited Hajj will primarily be a financial hit to the Saudi Arabian economy. Religious tourism thanks to Hajj represents a large sector of the country’s economy. Hajj has accounted for 7% of the country’s GDP and 20% of its non-oil GDP. Revenues from the pilgrimage were even excepted to exceed to $150 billion by 2022. Coronavirus has all but devastated this projection. Limitations on travel will diminish returns from the tourism sector tremendously, and the country that is struggling to diversify its economy away from oil will have to face the difficulty amassed from a big hit to its non-oil sector.
Coronavirus has devastated Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of most all non-energy sectors to invest in generally. Saudi Vision 2030, the pet project of Crown Prince bin Salman, has been put on hold. Diversification remains a difficult task considering that most industries have been hit harshly by the virus, and in the case of Saudi Arabia where foreign assets have fallen by $27 billion, the coronavirus will indeed pose substantial and perhaps long-lasting trouble for the country’s economy. The outbreak also comes at a crucial time in Saudi Arabia’s economic history, where oil prices are dropping at the same time Saudi Arabia’s welfare state has been giving those with Saudi citizenship a heavily financially supported lifestyle.
Crown Prince bin Salman’s governance will indeed be affected by the coronavirus outbreak. Economic problems will undoubtedly have sociopolitical consequences. Whether that be domestically where Saudi Arabia and its population continues to shift (slowly) towards a more “liberal” attitude and where a robust civil society is continuing to develop, opening up the possibility of protest and civil unrest; or on a regional scale where geopolitical conflict with Iran may be catalyzed by weak Saudi governance impacted by COVID-19, proxy aggressions in neighboring Yemen, and an ever-vigilant Iranian intelligence and covert operation agency looking to exploit weaknesses in the Saudi state.
What Will Hajj look like Next Year?
Currently, Saudi Arabia has over 63,000 active cases of COVID-19, with 169,842 who have already recovered. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to curb the spread of the virus have been moderately diligent, but it remains to be seen what role the virus will play be the end of this year and the upcoming year when the 2021 Hajj will be held. Indeed, any prediction of how the next Hajj will be impacted by this year’s pilgrimage is limited to analyzing the impact the current coronovirus’s impact on Hajj will have on Saudi Arabia’s economy and specifically in its tourism sector. Perhaps in an effort to recoup lost earnings, the Saudi government will invest more in the promotion of Hajj tourism and will encourage more religious travel in the country. Or perhaps 2020 Hajj will serve as a lesson to the Saudi Arabian government to extend their tourism sector beyond the Hajj pilgrimage, promoting other reasons to travel to the country: it’s antiquities, its rich culture, or the country’s growing infrastructure being keen examples. Saudi Arabia may even be coaxed by the current epidemic and the year’s limited Hajj to find other sectors beyond tourism that could help Saudi Arabia diversify its economy away from oil while still stimulating its domestic economy and workforce instead of investing in foreign assets.
Indeed, like many other countries, Saudi Arabia in finding a way to combat and deal with the coronavirus and its impact on the economic wellbeing of the state may uncover a blind spot in their economic policymaking. Perhaps finding a weak spot in their economy and finding innovative means to tackle the problem and ensuring that in the event of future global pandemics, the experience will bring knowledge on the subject and Saudi Arabia will not be scrambling for answers on how to deal with another coronavirus-like problem. Of course, this remains to be seen and one should first see how 2020 Hajj will look like in the time of coronavirus.
