Mideast: Explaining Escalating Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
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The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have recently again come to ahead as tensions between both countries are mounting, perhaps over the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh
Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous landlocked region that remains the sight of a three-decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both countries have since the collapse of the Soviet Union been actively working against each other to gain de jure power over the territory, and recently on July 12th, tensions have stoked to an alarming level.
Azerbaijani and Armenian troops clashed on their border, with an Armenian spokesperson claiming the spat began when an Azerbaijani jeep attempted to cross into Armenia, with Azerbaijani soldiers opening fire an hour later. Azerbaijan, in turn, has claimed that the skirmish was started by Armenia, who attacked troops to capture a position on the border. The area in which the two fought was approximately 190 miles away from Nagorno-Karabakh, the epicentre of Armenian-Azerbaijani military and diplomatic tensions. Protestors in Azerbaijan stormed their parliament demanding that they go to war with Armenia, this at a time where negotiations are breaking down and Azerbaijan’s foreign minister has been recently replaced.
A Primer on Nagorno-Karabakh
To put it succinctly, Armenia regards Nagorno-Karabakh (which they call Artsakh) as its rightful property owing to the majority Armenian population of the region, while Azerbaijan claims that the area has been effectively illegally annexed by their neighbour.
Conflict in Karabakh stems back from its annexation by Russia in the 19th century and after the collapse of Tsardom and with the creation of the “Transcaucasian Federation” which saw the short-lived formation of a state encompassing modern-day Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and parts of neighbouring areas. When the Federation crumbled, territorial disputes among the newly nationalistic population of the Caucasus followed and a series of wars put Azerbaijan and Armenia in conflict with each other. Following spouts of British imperial ambition and the rise of the Soviet Union, Karabakh was eventually left within the border of the Azerbaijan Social Soviet Republic until the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region was formed. Concerted efforts were made to change the demography of the region by both the Armenian state and Azerbaijan, while currently, Armenians make up the majority of the population. When Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum voting in favour of joining Armenia amidst the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenian and Azerbaijani tensions erupted again. Early efforts for peace treaties failed and numerous atrocities were committed, including the Khojaly Massacre (which has been deemed by some Armenians a “fabrication”), until in the late 1980s full out war erupted between the two and thereafter significant territorial (and demographic) changes were made. A ceasefire lasted for a short while, but continuous clashes have marked the last two decades of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including a significant escalation of violence in 2016.
International Sentiments
Recent clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia have once again called into question the geopolitical implications of tensions in the Caucuses. The Caucuses have been a hotspot for geopolitical rivalries between regional powers, for centuries, namely between Russia and Turkey who were fierce rivals at a time when they were known as the Ottoman Empire and the Tsardom of Russia. Turkey has been a long time ally of Azerbaijan and has made it known that it continues to stand with the country amidst ongoing tensions. As for Russia, who has contrastingly been an ally to Armenia, it has called on both sides to restrain themselves, but it itself has a long history of interference in the region as well as strategic motivations in regards to its economy and regional diplomatic relationships. As for Europe and the United States, neutrality mostly characterizes relationships with the conflict although the United States and France co-chair with Russia the Minsk Group. The Minsk Group was created to encourage a peaceful resolution in Nagorno-Karabakh although it has recently received criticism from the Azerbaijani administration over its lack of adequately chastising Armenia.
Moving Forward
Armenia’s current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whom after Armenia’s recent “velvet revolution” was seen as a young non-establishment political figure, now faces his first serious threat from Azerbaijan and depending on how he chooses to move forward Armenian aggression may ramp up tensions. Pashinyan has already faced criticism from Azerbaijan for allegedly undermining peace talks between the two countries and has had his share of outspoken claims to Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s president has for his part, recently called Armenia a fascist state and has even claimed Armenian troops have opened fire on civilians.
Will all-out-war breakout in the Caucasus over Nagorno-Karabakh?
It is possible but unlikely. Recent skirmishes have followed a predictable pattern of clashes between the two states and both countries leadership have more or less towed a familiar diplomatic line. All that can change quite quickly, however, if the Armenian Prime Minister chooses, perhaps to bolster popular support, to wage a more aggressive campaign against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan too will have to deal with an increasingly eager population of Azerbaijanis wanting a conflict with their neighbour over Nagorno-Karabakh. It stands to reason that without diplomatic efforts, substantial and long-lasting ones built upon the mutual respect of both nations and the foregoing of unnecessary and derogative sentiments of the other, peace in the Caucuses and in Armenian and Azerbaijan will not easily be found. It remains to be seen if both countries leadership can stand to change their diplomatic behavior and look towards the future rather than cementing their antagonism of each other by dwelling on their at-odds past.
