China View: South Korea Between Two Hegemonies
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The Republic of Korea (ROK), also known as South Korea, is a highly developed economy in East Asia, presenting the 4th largest GDP in Asia and the 12th largest in the world. Occupying the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, this country holds a complex history often dictated by domestic conflicts and interference of foreign forces. Like Japan, South Korea is considered to be one of America's closest allies in Asia. This friendship was fortified after the 1950-53 Korean War, under the intervention of a United Nations coalition, which eventually separated South Korea from its northern, communist-backed, counterpart.
Interactive map of the KOrean War, leading to the formation of the modern ROK (Credit: VOX.com)
This division was a consequence of the differences among Koreans as well as interactions with other civilizations like the Japanese, which had occupied Korea for over 35 years until the end of World War II in 1945. Separated first along the 38th parallel and later with the Military Demarcation Line, South Korean society nonetheless grew into a tragic context that will eventually determine its present role in the world.
The current shift in the global balance of power is indeed putting South Korea in an ambiguous position. Being situated in East Asia, its leaders value keeping constructive diplomatic relations with emerging powers in the region. However, the U.S. still exercises an incredible influence on Korean foreign policy decision-making. While the military presence of Americans in the state has decreased, this does not exclude that Washington is still able to pressure countries like South Korea via soft-power to affect decisions. If one considers that the U.S. is Korea’s security ally while the rising economy of China is Korea’s top trading partner, then understanding the uncomfortable position Moon’s government must be undergoing is rather easy.
There are at least three examples that show South Korea has been frequently “caught in the middle.” For instance, the institution of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was a rebalancing strategy to deviate from the leading Japanese-administered Asian Development Bank (ADB). Along with countries such as Germany, the U.K., and Australia, South Korea signed to join the bank in 2015, giving it further support to function as the engine of Chinese-led economic programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative. The AIIB left out both Japan and the U.S., even outperforming existing institutions, said the former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund and professor at Cornell University Eswar Prasad.
If South Korea viewed China in a positive manner in 2015, however, events corresponding with the U.S.-led 2017 THAAD and navy operations in the South China Sea did not contribute to fostering relations between Beijing and Seoul. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) is an anti-ballistic missile defense system designed by the Trump Administration to prevent the North Korean nuclear threat. Among the countries permitting the deployment of THAAD to encircle North Korea, Moon’s ROK decided to value the security of the region and agree to Washington’s conditions. This move, of course, angered Beijing as the Chinese not only saw South Korea slip away in the arms of America, but also worried that this would go to Trump’s advantage and the U.S. would have acquired more power in East Asia.
Given the recent events concerning the U.S.-China Trade War, Xi’s government is particularly impatient with who aligns with the US side and therefore retaliated to THAAD by punishing South Korean businesses in China and stopping outgoing tourism to ROK. This way, Seoul was coerced into its corner.
Then again, another harsh challenge limiting the power of South Korea has been the ongoing conflict in the South China Sea. Partner of both ASEAN (through the ASEAN+3 mechanism) and China, South Korea has been put in a situation where it does not know whether to align with the US navy and strengthen regional security for ASEAN, or whether to prioritized a non-interventionist approach, much appreciated from the pragmatic Chinese government. While the US has been conducting military exercises with countries such as Vietnam, India, and the Philippines in the South China Sea, South Korea must be more careful in choosing where it stands. While holding this ambivalent stance may only be temporary due to its unsustainability, it is clear Moon would rather not pick the side of the U.S. and anger both China and North Korea. After all, the U.S. might be its friend, but South Korea does not share borders with Washington and could receive a punch in the face from geopolitics at any time.
While the U.S. has attempted to reopen talks with North Korea, South Korea is aware it needs China’s help to do so. On its side, Beijing argues that the Chinese government only has little influence over how Pyongyang acts, however, it is true that North Korea needs China to back its security decisions due to the avant-garde capabilities and control China exercises in Asia. Therefore, China remains an indispensable player for the countries involved in East Asian matters, and could not be left unconsidered.
The decision of the Republic of Korea, therefore, is to uphold multilateralism while valuing bilateral ties with China. The balance it maintains with Beijing and Washington is hazardous, but also inevitable. In the globalized world that South Korea also exists in, it would be unthinkable to prioritize exclusive diplomatic relations with one power over the other. In 2020, South Korea accepted Trump’s invitation to the G7 summit but also initiated FTA talks with China. The future of this balance interestingly depends more on the political maneuvers of China and the U.S. as big powers, rather than from the decisions taken by South Korea in itself. As a small economy, indeed, dynamics in the region will continue to change according to the moves of greater powers.
