Mideast: Relations Between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are Cooling Down
KeithBinns /JeanUrsula
Pakistan has been a relatively close ally to Saudi Arabia ever since its founding in 1947, and the two grew closer in the 1970’s. Saudi Arabia has assisted Pakistan through funding religious schools, arms, and investment in oil and energy industries. The two have enjoyed relatively amicable relations since then, although more recently as Saudi Arabia with the rule of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have begun making efforts to modernize and wane off dependence on oil, diplomatic and economic relations between the two have cooled down.
Indeed, relations are seemingly slowly deteriorating and three apparent causes are behind the cooling down of associations between the two: Saudi Arabia has been pivoting to India, it has remained silent on the issue of Kashmir to Pakistan’s chagrin, and it has been decreasing its economic support for the country as well as putting pressure on Pakistan to pay back economic loans at a critical juncture in Pakistani strategic arrangement.
Saudi Arabia’s Relationship with India
Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Pakistan’s contentious Indian neighbor has increased. The Gulf state sees better relations with India as part of a pivotal strategy tied to its economic ambitions. Saudi Arabia has announced $100 billion worth of investment as India and has made India a strategic partner in its Vision 2030 project. In a 2019 meeting, twelve agreements were signed between the countries including on security cooperation and defense collaboration and on the establishment of a Strategic Partnership Council. But for Pakistan, warming relations between India and Saudi Arabia will pose a threat to its own relationship with the Gulf country as well as its regional interests.
Pakistan, of course, has had a tense relationship with India, and as long as Saudi Arabia seeks partnership with the country, it will see its relationship with the Pakistan deteriorating. Pakistan sees Indian relations with Saudi Arabia as a threat to its own economic and geopolitical interests, especially as it is juxtaposed with India’s interests. Saudi Arabia, however, may not care enough to appease Pakistan as it seeks rather to build up a post-oil economy and work with international partners to cement its aspirations towards economic prosperity and becoming a more international power broker. It will therefore, perhaps to placate India, remain silent on another vital issue, especially the Kashmir dispute.
Issue of Kashmir
Pakistan has recently called on Saudi Arabia, in a fairly strong tone, for it and other Gulf countries to voice their support of Kashmeri autonomy from Indian intrusion and take on a decidedly a more pro-Pakistani stance on the issue. It has urged the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which Saudi Arabia heads, to “show leadership” on the Kashmir issue, which Saudi Arabia has failed to do. When Pakistan threatened to rely on only other Muslim countries, namely Iran and Turkey, to voice their concern over Kashmir, the Gulf country recalled a $1 billion loan as well as failed to renew a $.32 billion oil credit to Pakistan. Considering their interests in the region, Saudi Arabia will not voice their support for Pakistan in the Kashmeri conflict as long as they find benefit in economic and strategic ties with India. This will further put strain on Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Pakistan as the latter moves to consolidate some sort of power over the Kashmeri situation and deter any sort of reprise from India.
Deteriorating Economic Relations
Perhaps the most important relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as it comes to practical matters is economic relations. Besides remittances from Saudi Arabia, which the country remains Pakistan’s largest source of, Saudi Arabia has given Pakistan countless economic resources. In 2019, Saudi Arabia signed a oil deal with Pakistan to establish a refinery in the country, alongside a total $10 billion planned Saudi investment in the country. More recently however, Saudi Arabia has requested repayment for loans from Pakistan and with the economic punishments dosed out by the Gulf country when Pakistan threatened to bypass it in drumming up support for the Kashmir dispute, it seems as if economic relations are slowly deteriorating. This will prove a severe setback to Pakistan whom through tensions with India has found itself in an intense geopolitical situation which has made it dependent on foreign allies for both diplomatic and economic support.
How Have Relations Between the Two Evolved?
As Saudi Arabia looks to become a more powerful economic player in the Middle East and in peripheral areas, and as its Crown Prince seeks to modernize the country (in his terms) it will also rethink and adjust its relationship with historical allies. Indeed, Pakistan since the 1970’s has been an important ally for the Gulf country who through religious imports such as the madrassa school system with its Wahhabi leaning ideology, has made Pakistan a strong and relatively loyal ally. Of course, this has not always been the case, as exemplified by Pakistan’s neutrality in the Yemen crisis and its remarkably good relationship with Iran. Indeed, it could be said that there has never been a fully harmonious relationship between the two countries, but they have at least maintained enough economic and diplomatic ties as to bind them together as international allies. That said, relations between the two have evolved at a much quicker pace as Saudi Arabia pivots to India and remains non-aligned on the Kashmeri dispute. As Saudi Arabia moves away from its traditional allies to more strategic ones it remains inevitable that tensions will arise, so is the case with Pakistan. It seems unlikely that more deteriorating maneuvering will come from Pakistan, as it still relies on Saudi Arabia for much of its economic needs. Perhaps Saudi Arabia will cool down relations with the country in an effort to strengthen strategic ties with other regional players. If that is the case, perhaps Pakistani-Saudi relations will cool down for good. However, it is unlikely that a full deterioration of relations will come next.
