China View: Do Africans see Chinese investment as altruistic or opportunistic?
Xinhua News Agency
The population of the continent of Africa is expected to be over four billion towards the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, China’s population has slowed to such an extent that the worried technocrats in Beijing have announced a three-child policy. There is clearly a possible synergy between the two regions, particularly if China can keep Africans convinced that mutual interaction is in their mutual interest. China gains access to a large market for its goods, natural resources, and labor; while Africa gains from the advances in technology and foreign investment.
Already, China has invested deeply in Africa and is the largest provider of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the continent. The largest portion of Chinese investment (by cost) is in the transportation industry, followed by the energy industry. As is often the case, high levels of investment in a country by a foreign power are often accompanied by ambivalence on the part of the recipient. According to a recent study, there is a documentable and clear correlation between Chinese investment projects and popular protests in Africa. Large Investment in urban areas is more likely to elicit protests due to the greater impact on population than it is in rural areas; but protests in rural areas occur as well, especially when there are environmental concerns. Environmental disruptions are also a concern of multiple African NGOs, which have been highly critical of Chinese extraction projects. This is likely to become more pronounced as the scramble for rare earth, which comprises the base materials for strategic technologies such as components in electric vehicles and computer chips, intensifies. Chinese investments in urban infrastructure particularly communications and water supply will also have their share of controversies if the broader public views are ignored.
The aforementioned social discontent does not mean that Africans are generally opposed to foreign investment. A 2020 pan-African research institute, Afrobarometer, conducted a survey on Chinese influence on the continent. The survey shows that about 6 in 10 Africans believe Chinese investment is positive, which is in line with the view on American investment. However, the survey found that most Africans who were aware of Chinese loans believed that their governments had taken on too heavy a debt burden. It also found that debt to China erodes trust in African government officials. Nevertheless, according to a report by the Johns Hopkins Africa-China Initiative, although there is a risk of unpleasant legal brinksmanship between Chinese creditors and indebted African countries, “Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy” has its limits. A country might be sued for a debt owed but seizing the assets of a sovereign nation is rare and politically difficult. If China has trouble collecting its debts, its strategy would probably be to persuade the elite that repayment is in their self-interest, if not in their national interest. The aforementioned Afrobarometer survey, with its findings on the correlation between distrust of public officials associated with Chinese financed projects and the amount of indebtedness to China, reinforces this point. It found that the number of infrastructure projects was associated with lower trust in local government and the officials associated with the project.
Influence more broadly, and investment more narrowly is more trusted if it is reciprocal. However, though Western investment in Africa is neither reciprocal nor narrow, it is still more favorably received than that of Chinese investment. In this case, the Afrobarometer survey is again helpful. It shows that Africans view the American development model more favorably than that of China. While China certainly competes with the West in terms of price and speed, there may be a belief among Africans, particularly those who are younger, that close government-to-government ties with China pose a greater risk to human rights than ties to the West. Africans see the possible correlation between ties to China amongst their leaders and heavy-handed tactics against minorities and/or popular protest by their own governments. There is little need to doubt that such actions lead to a lack of accountability and transparency.
As mobile technology has proliferated across the continent, much as it has across the world, discussion of grievances and coordination of protests has become easier. The perception that Chinese investment does not align with national interest is also intensified by ethnic tensions. For example, in 2020, in an enclave of African businesspeople in Guangdong province in southern China, anti-African sentiments led to thousands of Africans being displaced (thus resulting in a reduction of its population in the area by 70%). In addition to a diplomatic protest from multiple African countries, the incident prompted prominent African intellectuals to call out China’s lack of reciprocity in terms of how it treats the African diaspora. They contrasted such ethnic violence against the reception of Chinese citizens in Africa, which has been far more welcoming. The West, and particularly the United States with its large African diaspora, has recently had to address with great urgency its treatment of its Black population. The Black Lives Matter movement generated worldwide protests and drew attention to police brutality in other parts of the world. This had relevance in Kenya, where police brutality has been rampant and reported by the press.
Returning to demographics, the Afrobarometer survey found that there is a perception that Chinese influence has declined on the continent in the past year or so. The African continent, with a population in 2020 of 1.3 billion people, is highly populated and vast and benefits from youthful demographics. If one searches the Internet for information on Africa in Mandarin Chinese, among the most popular questions is how the population of Africa compares to that of China. As mentioned above, Africa will be a key region for economic growth in the 21st and 22nd centuries. Foreign influence may be significant, but it is certainly not all-encompassing. Covid-19 and the restriction of flows of people and goods have slowed such influence, and we have yet to see the impact of the pandemic on perceptions. As China’s population ages, the country will need new markets and, perhaps, even immigrants. Africa, with its demographic boom, is an obvious choice. China’s treatment and view of the African people, their environment, and its position on the debt will have an outsize impact on how the interaction develops and therefore the prosperity of China itself.
