Mideast: Where Do Egypt And Iran Stand Now?
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On February 7, 2013, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Egypt, marking the first visit by an Iranian president in over 30 years, even if you count the exiled Shah’s taking refuge in Cairo. The Middle East is dynamic. Observers around the world, on edge at the rising violence, are nervously waiting to see how current affairs will create a new status quo in the region. As an ally and trading partner of the US, Egypt is a focal point for hostility between the West and Iran. On the other hand, Iran has built a coalition with Russia and China and supports non-state militant factions across the Arab world, antagonizing American-Arab partnerships.
Egypt and Iran both inherited ancient and great civilizations. Both embody unique cultures whose imperial forbears spread throughout the world. Revolutionary governments rule both nations, and their people have endured multiple coups d’état in the last century. Both are majority Muslim, although Egypt is majority Sunni and Iran is majority Shia. Both sustain powerful militaries and nurture strong economies in a complex, swift-moving region.
The closest relations between Iran and Egypt in recent memory date back to the 1930s. They exchanged ambassadors between Cairo and Tehran and even a political marriage in 1939.
Relations cooled off after Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successful revolution and establishment of the Republic of Egypt. Mohammad Reza Shah, heir of the Pahlavi dynasty and singular ruler in Iran following the CIA-backed coup d’etat in 1953, was wary of Arab Nationalism and especially Arab Socialism, both of which Nasser represented.
After war raged against Israel earlier in the decade, Egypt normalized relations with the new nation through the Camp David Accords in the late 70s, making them the first Arab nation to do so. In doing so, Egypt angered much of the Arab world, but not Iran. The Pahlavi dynasty recognized Israel in 1950 and supported Arab states in normalizing relations. Unfortunately for the Shah, Mohammad Reza Shah was deposed one year after the Accords and lived in exile in Cairo.
The new Islamic Republic of Iran severed all diplomatic ties with Egypt over the Camp David Accords. Sadat was now feeling stranded. The Muslim Brotherhood had been treated as an enemy of the Egyptian government since the early days of Nasser’s rule. Now, their allies in Islamic nationalists rule one of the largest countries in the Middle East. When the Iran-Iraq War enflamed the 80s, Egypt took Iraq’s side as part of a Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Egypt’s government viewed and in many ways still views, Islamic Nationalism as a threat to regional stability and progression.
As punishment for his secularism and peaceful relationship with Israel, a member of a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot assassinated President Sadat in 1981. The revolutionary government of Iran praised him as a martyr and named a street for him in Tehran. The relationship between Cairo and Tehran was broken at this point, which was understandable since both nations actively supported the other’s enemies.
The tension between the two countries has waned since then, but they still limit diplomacy, trade, and tourism between the two countries today. After the Arab Spring, the brief presidency of Morsi spelled good news for their relationship. President Morsi was a candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt's first democratically elected president. Under his rule, Iran was allowed to pass warships through the Suez Canal, Iran sent an ambassador to Cairo, and Morsi visited Iran.
President Morsi was booted from office in a popular uprising, and the following and current president, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, has a terrible relationship with Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. Although leaders and statesmen from both nations have stated an interest in rekindling their relationship and their shared memberships to the OIC, BRICS, and the Developing Eight, they have only talked publicly a handful of times in the last several years, and mainly under the mediating eyes of neutral countries such as Oman or Iraq.
Armed with historical context, what’s next for the two powers, and where does this leave their people?
Violence in the Levant, sponsored in many ways by Iran through proxy groups the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah, has slowed Egypt’s economic engine in the Suez Canal. Egypt sees Hamas as aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood and strongly condemns Iran’s backing of the group. While Egypt did not join the Saudi-UAE coalition in Yemen to battle the Houthis, they are certainly no friend to them either.
Egypt is a close trading partner of the United States, receiving over one billion dollars this year in military aid and exporting products worth over 3 billion to the US in 2022. Their favorable relationship with the US coincides with several multi-billion dollar trading partnerships with Spain, Italy, England, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and India. Iran comparatively only has China as a multi-billion dollar export client with a relationship worth over 5 billion.
Iranian and Egyptian GDP Per Capita 2012-2022
Over the last decade, Egypt’s GDP has improved while Iran’s has slowed due to international US-led sanctions. From 2017 to 2022, Egypt’s export rate to Iran fell by 39 percent, and Iran’s export rate to Egypt fell by 57 percent.
Despite this economic downturn and the political obstacles, early 2023 showed signs of a new day for their relationship. A China-brokered normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia marked a turning point for the Sunni-majority states and Shiite-majority Iran.
A flurry of rumors surrounding mediated negotiations between the countries’ representatives and an intention to exchange ambassadors reveal an optimistic tone in their relationship.
The multi-front war between Israel and the Iranian-supported Axis of Resistance has stalled peace-making diplomacy in the region. However, as recently as December of last year, the two nation’s presidents spoke about progressing the nations’ relationship beyond charge d’affaires, where it has remained for decades. Iranian publications and other regional observers indicate the necessary influence of Oman, Iraq, and other interlocutors to progress this relationship.
There is reason to doubt the progress of Egypt and Iran’s warming relationship. The current conflict is creating economic peril for Egypt, and Iran is isolating itself from many of Egypt’s friends. Yet, the leaders seem hopeful. Iran’s President Pezeshkian met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdel Atty in July, and both used friendly language to describe the meeting and one another’s people.
For America and its Western and Arab allies, Iran’s relationships with moderate, secular states should be supported, not degraded. Solid and stable countries like Egypt can play an important moderating role for the extremist government in Tehran and provide trading partners and regional allies aside from Russia and China. Furthermore, Egypt must maintain strong allies with as much of the region as possible, including Iran, to protect its economic interests in the Suez Canal and its status as an international power broker.
