Far East: Southeast Asia’s Strategy in the South China Sea Disputes
On December 10, 2024, tensions flared once again in the South China Sea when the China Coast Guard fired water cannons and sideswiped a Philippine government vessel near the disputed Scarborough Shoal. This latest incident underscores the escalating assertiveness of China in the region, which claims nearly 90% of the South China Sea under its controversial "nine-dash line." The Philippines, along with other Southeast Asian nations, continues to grapple with balancing national sovereignty, regional unity, and external pressures, particularly from the United States and China.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia’s Response to China’s Territorial Claims
The Philippines has adopted a multifaceted approach to addressing Chinese aggression. Since its landmark 2016 arbitration case under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) invalidated China’s nine-dash line claims, the Philippines has sought to leverage international legal mechanisms to uphold its sovereignty. The recent actions of the China Coast Guard have reignited calls within Manila to strengthen military and strategic ties with the United States under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Meanwhile, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also pushes for greater investment in maritime patrols and defense modernization.
Vietnam continues to adopt a dual approach of outright defiance and careful diplomacy. While Hanoi has aggressively protested China’s activities and expanded its naval capabilities, it is equally focused on leveraging multilateral platforms, including ASEAN, to address maritime disputes. Vietnam has also fostered bilateral defense agreements with countries like India, Japan, and Australia to diversify its security partnerships without overly relying on the United States.
Malaysia and Indonesia have traditionally avoided overt confrontation with China, opting instead for quiet diplomacy. However, recent incursions into their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) have prompted a recalibration of strategies. Malaysia has increased naval deployments and expanded exploration of oil and gas reserves in disputed waters, while Indonesia has bolstered its presence near the Natuna Islands. Both countries, however, remain cautious about directly antagonizing Beijing, balancing economic ties with security concerns.
ASEAN’s Role: Opportunities and Limitations
ASEAN has long sought to mediate South China Sea disputes through its framework of “consensus-driven diplomacy”. The ASEAN-China Code of Conduct (CoC), under negotiation for over two decades, remains a cornerstone of regional attempts to manage tensions. However, progress has been slow, hindered by divergent national interests and China’s ability to exploit divisions among ASEAN member states. Countries like Cambodia and Laos, which are economically dependent on China, often adopt Beijing-friendly stances, complicating collective efforts.
To strengthen regional unity, ASEAN has been exploring alternative strategies, such as strengthening the ASEAN Maritime Forum, an initiative that aims to bolster cooperation on maritime security and ensure adherence to international laws, as well as conducting joint patrols and resource sharing, proposing agreements that reduce the risk of conflict while protecting economic interests such as fishing rights.
In Short, there are several different strategies that haven been taken by the ASEAN countries to deter China’s territorial claim in the South China Sea, including:
Legal Settlements: The Philippines has utilized international arbitration to challenge China’s claims, setting a precedent for other nations.
Military Modernization: Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia are investing in modernizing their naval and air capabilities to safeguard their interests.
Multilateralism: ASEAN remains central to fostering regional dialogue and cooperation, though progress is often undermined by internal divisions.
Bilateral Partnerships: Nations like Vietnam are forging bilateral defense agreements to enhance deterrence capabilities.
Conclusion
The South China Sea disputes exemplify the intricate balancing act facing Southeast Asian nations. As China’s assertiveness intensifies, these countries must navigate a complex web of national priorities, regional unity, and superpower rivalries. While legal challenges and multilateral frameworks offer pathways to mitigate tensions, the enduring effectiveness of these strategies will depend on ASEAN’s ability to present a united front and the willingness of external powers to support a rules-based order without exacerbating regional divisions.