South Pacific: Bougainville Independence
The Island of Bougainville, located east of Papua New Guinea within the Solomon Sea and the South Pacific Ocean is emerging as a new country on the international stage. The long-standing secession movement gained success with a 97.7% vote during the 2019 referendum favouring autonomy from mainland Papua New Guinea. The island is home to abundant natural resources such as copper, gold, silver and gas. It is an undervalued small state with implications for the regional Indo-Pacific economy and the wider global economy.
Former President of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville, John Momis argued that “We are the indigenous people of our motherland Bougainville. We alone have to decide our future, our destiny. No outsider can decide for us.”
At present, political deadlock between the Papua New Guinea Government and the Autonomous Bougainville Government in ratifying the referendum results has undermined the democratic process that favoured an overwhelming vote for independence. Moreover, the nexus of historic political violence, corporate exploitation, and vandalism has fuelled regional concerns of a revolt by the people of Bougainville in response to the inaction.
2025 will mark 50 years since Bougainville was incorporated into mainland Papua New Guinea. Notably, the shared legacy between the two countries of autonomy and independence mirrors Papua New Guinea gaining independence from Australia in 1975. Under the 2022 Era Kone Covenant, both parties participated in consultations to form the basis of the Wabag Roadmap to implement the results of the 2019 referendum within a two-year window. The agreed condition is that it is no earlier than 2025 and no later than 2027. This time frame is not a coincidence given the 50th anniversary of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville.
As such, 2025 is emerging as a critical year for Papua New Guinea, Bougainville and the wider region in the formation of a new country, a new identity and new bilateral and multilateral relations.
A History of Political Violence
The decade-long Civil War in Bougainville from 1988 until 1998 is regarded as one of the deadliest conflicts in the Oceania region. Sparked by a combination of grievances including the
the 1975 incorporation into mainland Papua New Guinea as well as corporate exploitation of land and people relating to the Panguana mine. By 1989, the Panguana mine was shut down by mining company Rio Tinto following a year-long target of sabotage by Bougainville secessionists, including the Bougainville Revolutionary Army.
The deployment of the Papua New Guinea Defence Force further fueled escalation leading to the decade-long conflict. From the perspective of the Papua New Guinea government, the Panguana mine was the most important asset of the country following independence from Australia. Rio Tinto subsidized the project and provided operational responsibility to Bougainville Copper Limited, with the project generating 44% of total foreign earnings through exporting copper and other resources.
At the time of the referendum in 2019, Chairman of the Bougainville Referendum Commission, Bertie Ahern stated the vote was about “your peace, your history and your future”. According to Anthony Reagan, a combination of the mine and multinational industrialisation of Bougainville created “a pan-Bougainvillean sense of identity where none had existed before”. This sense of national identity and an aspiration to self-determination led to measures in the 2001 peace process that involved a semblance of territorial autonomy, and an effort of weapons disposal and demilitarization across the island. The memory of the brutal civil war is traumatic and raw to many within the population as the conflict led to an estimated 20,000 dead and mass displacement across the island.
2019 Referendum
The 2019 referendum was a resounding moment for the people of Bougainville, allowing for aspiration to attain independence as a nation. A historic process from the 1975 incorporation into mainland PNG, a decade long-civil war motivated by political violence and local grievance to the 2001 signing of the Bougainville Peace Agreement. This current phase of Bougainvillean history honoured the signing of the peace agreement in which a referendum would eventually take place.
Importantly, under the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement ratification of the referendum would be authorised by the Parliament of Papua New Guinea. The referendum was legally and democratically sound through the involvement of 250 observers from domestic and international groups to protect the legitimacy of the undertaking. These groups included women’s federation groups, youth groups, Transparency International, and the academia sector through representatives from the Australian National University and the University of PNG.
Process of Gaining Independence
The process of forming statehood and independence is a complex undertaking. For one, Bougainville has had an element of autonomy since the signing of the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement. However, beyond institutional change, both countries must come to realise the cultural and attitudinal change in achieving independence and statehood.
Political solutions to overcome the five-year-long political deadlock have included mediation from an external source. The announcement that former New Zealand Governor-General Sir Jerry Mateparae has been given the responsibility of mediating both parties is a welcome one. With experience in negotiations and representation, Mr Mateparae brings these skills through previous roles as a senior diplomat and governor-general, representing New Zealand in dealing with the head of State, Queen Elizabeth II and King Charles III.
From the perspective of Bougainville, and President Ishamael Toroama the referendum provided a social licence to implement change with a sense of urgency to resolve the complex history of the island, its relations with neighbouring countries and to enact a clear roadmap to the future.
