Mideast: What is Egypt’s Three Phase Plan to rebuild Gaza?
Amir Levy / Stringer
On Tuesday, March 4th, the Arab League met in an extraordinary summit in Cairo to present a plan for Gaza in response to Trump’s vague plans for a US takeover and forced displacement of Palestinians from the enclave. The UN Secretary-General and the President of the European Council joined representatives from all 22 Arab League nations. Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent delegates instead of the heads of state.
Their plan was well received in the Arab region and the EU. Endorsements have come from the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. The two opponents? Israel and the US. On February 25th, the Trump administration posted to social media an AI video seemingly showing Gaza as a Trump-owned luxury resort. The video was widely condemned.
The war in Gaza has been disastrous. Since the war’s beginning in October of 2023, Israeli forces have murdered over 48,000 people, including tens of thousands of civilian women and children. Almost all of the 2 million Palestinian residents who live there are now displaced from their homes. Over 90 percent of homes in the enclave are damaged or destroyed. The healthcare infrastructure is demolished, as is the education system. Gazans currently rely entirely on foreign aid for food, water, fuel, and medicine.
Gaza is also nearing the deadline of stage one of Hamas’ ceasefire with Israel. Throughout the ceasefire so far, Hamas has released 38 hostages, including eight remains of deceased hostages, and Israel has freed nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The truce is as precarious as ever, and Israel is demanding more concessions from Hamas. To apply maximum pressure, Israel is blocking all aid from entering the desperate and starving enclave to force Hamas’ leniency on negotiation terms. On March 10, despite continued ceasefire negotiations, Israeli airstrikes killed several Palestinians in Gaza. Early in the morning on March 18, Israel killed over 400 Palestinians in renewed airstrikes saying negotiations had stalled. Hamas, so far, is ceding no ground.
The Trump administration shows no sign that it intends to rein in Israel or hold them to the terms of the original agreement. Trump’s vague plan of a US takeover or the displacement of Palestinians is a far cry from realpolitik negotiation norms. It would incite further violence with the militant resistance groups in Gaza.
For all of these reasons, citing all of the devastation, desperation, and fear, the Arab leaders put forth their own plan. The backbone of which is a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops, massive financial investment from Arab states in the rebuilding process, and the consolidation of Gaza’s governance under an Arab League-approved committee of Palestinian leaders backed by the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, West Bank.
The plan involves three phases over five years, resulting in USD 53 billion in investments and projects from willing nations. The first phase is the immediate “Early Recovery Phase,” which involves USD 3 billion to clear debris from central highways to provide logistical access and the building of 200,000 temporary housing units for 1.2 million people across six sites in Gaza, including Rafah, Khan Younis, and others not yet specified.
The next phase is “Reconstruction Stage I”. Over two years, it costs USD 20 billion to build 200,000 permanent housing units, clear rubble, establish new water desalination plants and irrigation systems, and reclaim farmland. “Reconstruction Stage II” is the final phase and costs USD 30 billion over two-and-a-half years to build an additional 200,000 housing units and complete renovations to 60,000 damaged homes, providing housing for the entire population. It also includes the establishment of an international airport, the development of a coastal road, a fishing port, and an industrial zone.
The plan details the proposed architecture of new municipal buildings, temporary housing structures, and urban planning needed for long-term resilience for over 100 pages. However, it only vaguely mentions the pathway to governance, currently Gaza's stickiest and most essential issue.
The plan vaguely refers to “transitional governance and security arrangements in a manner that upholds and preserves the prospect of the two-state solution and prevents future conflicts.” However, it does not outline a plan for the transition from the Hamas-run Gazan government to this centralized and technocratic Palestinian government.
Israel opposes the plan for several reasons. Firstly, it is a pathway to Palestinian statehood, a no-go under the current Israeli administration. Secondly, it requests the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, as well as the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. Israel is not prepared to withdraw. Thirdly, Israel does not trust any of the states or organizations that this plan would rely on, for example, the United Nations, the Palestinian Authority, the Arab League, and UNRWA.
The US has several problems with the plan, the main being Israel’s lack of support. They also told reporters that Hamas must be disarmed and dethroned as a first step. They defended the unpopular and radical plan of displacing Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan by claiming the land was too dangerous to live on during reconstruction because of the rubble and unexploded ordinances.
For this plan to take hold, Hamas and Israel would have to agree on terms for a permanent ceasefire and then agree on the terms of this reconstruction plan. Phase one of the truce has expired, and Hamas and Israel are in failed negotiations to continue the pause in fighting. While Israel has changed its terms for continuing the ceasefire, and Hamas has accused it of negotiating in bad faith, both organizations have backed away from the agreement, and fighting has resumed.
The United States could be important for encouraging Israel’s acceptance of the plan. At the moment, Israel is very far from allowing Palestine to move forward with statehood. The US, their biggest supporter and ally, could be instrumental in pushing forward a compromise to rebuild Gaza. However, the US would have to decide on a vision for the region since mixed messages are coming from the current administration. While Trump called for the displacement of Gazans and a new Middle East Riviera, his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, called the plan reasonable and a welcome first step in resolving the war.
At the moment, Egypt’s plan is the only serious day-after plan for Gaza anyone has seen for a while. Netanyahu certainly has no day-after plan and Israeli goals range from negotiated peace to displacement and settlement of the strip. Hamas has no authority in the enclave or internationally, only firepower. The Palestinian Authority is hopelessly unpopular in Gaza. Egypt’s rebuilding plan, backed by European nations and the Arab League, is the only plan to which some Americans, some Hamas leaders, and people around the world have been supportive of. What happens next is in Israel and the US’s hands.
