Mideast: Why Does Israel Miss The Russians in Syria?
Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre al-Jolani, ousted the al-Assad regime in Syria in the early days of December 2024. As it became clear that his forces were outmaneuvering the regime and victory was close, Israel began a massive air campaign against the regime's military infrastructure. It also took territory through a ground invasion, territory that was formerly a buffer zone between Israel and Syria.
The context for Israel’s current relationship with Syria dates back to Israel’s founding, but most importantly, to 1967 and the Six-Day War. The Six-Day War was fought between Israel and a coalition of the Arab states Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. By the end of the short conflict, Israel occupied a piece of Southwestern Syria known as the Golan Heights. In the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel triumphed over Syria once again for the Golan Heights. The UN and US-brokered ceasefire created the UN Disengagement and Observer Force (UNDOF) to maintain the ceasefire along the boundary.
No country on earth recognized Israeli sovereignty in the Golan until 2019. Donald Trump made the first official recognition of the Golan expansion in 2019. The UN maintains that it is illegally occupied land. Until December of 2024, there was a buffer strip between the occupied Golan Heights and Syria, agreed upon by the two nations and overseen by the UNDOF. Israel took this strip of land for its own in the 2024 invasion.
Israel views the Golan Heights as an important security outpost. As the name implies, the Golan Heights are a high ground in the area. Arabs attacked Israel from mountains in the Golan Heights during the first Arab-Israeli war and the 1967 war. Israel now uses the land for intelligence gathering, settlements, and access to water.
Israel’s motivations for the targeted airstrikes are different than its motivations for invasion. Ahmed al-Sharaa was a Jihadist for his whole career. He used to be a part of ISIS and Al-Qaeda, then al-Nusra Front, and now Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. These organizations are well-known international terror operations. While they display a career in steadily less radical Islamist groups, they indicate hostility toward Israel. Israel was engaged in a cold but peaceful neighborship with Bashar al-Assad. Now, they are nervous about the new leader and his radical following.
Al-Sharaa has taken important steps to separate himself from his extreme past. These steps include outreach to ethnic minority communities in Syria for inclusion in the government and meeting with liberal foreign leaders. However, violence in minority enclaves in Syria and governorships in the hands of Jihadist warlords has raised skepticism about Syria’s future.
Israel’s airstrikes targeted the military capacity of the former regime, which was now in the hands of HTS. Israel, over a matter of days, destroyed the entire Syrian naval fleet, targeted several airfields, and destroyed weapon manufacturing plants and storage facilities. The Syrian White Helmets, a civilian-run rescue organization, condemned the strikes for the risk posed to civilians and confirmed that they had targeted military infrastructure.
Israel claims this was to make sure al-Sharaa was not immediately able to make use of al-Assad’s military capabilities, that he would have to begin again from scratch.
In response to the Israeli invasion and airstrikes, al-Sharaa turned the other cheek. He said, over and over again, that he had no interest in engaging in war with any other country, including Israel.
Israel had a complicated relationship with the al-Assad regime. Al-Assad was propped up by Iran, Israel’s sworn enemy, and provided material support to Hezbollah and Hamas, two more sworn enemies of Israel. However, al-Assad was also propped up by Russia, which gave Israel more flexibility in its attempts to counter Iranian influence. Russia maintained military bases in Syria and operated on Syrian land, air, and sea. The Russian government allowed Israel to strike Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syrian airspace.
When al-Sharaa’s forces deposed al-Assad, he fled to Russia alongside an exodus of Russian military. While observers the world over celebrated the Russian defeat and exit, Israel has lobbied for continued Russian presence in Syria.
This is confusing. Russia has been no friend to Israel historically. Russia is a supporter of Iran. Israel supports Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Furthermore, Russia is a long-time adversary of the United States, Israel’s greatest ally.
It appears that Israel is scared of the changed leadership in Syria. Israel’s place in the Levant is precarious and dangerous. Since the origin of the state in British Mandatory Palestine, surrounding Arab states have been opposed to the Jewish state. Syria is no exception. Thus, Israel employs an extremely wary and defensive foreign policy and military strategy with its neighbors.
When al-Sharaa took power in Syria, Israel’s unease increased. Al-Sharaa is a known Salafi militant, associated with violent Islamic Extremists. Historically, Israel does not get along so well with such groups. These groups tend to believe in the abolishment of Israel at the very least, if not also the extermination of Jewish people. Israel gutted al-Sharaa’s capacity to make war before he had finished taking over.
Perhaps the Russian military was a more predictable neighbor than HTS. Israel had dealt with Russia for decades, and they had agreements in place for allowing one another’s presence in the region. While not friends, Russia was the ‘devil’ Israel knew, so to speak. Now, HTS presents unpredictability. The revolution has created a power vacuum which is for now held by al-Sharaa. However, there are many in his HTS faction who think he has been too soft with power and should be more extreme. He has yet to succeed in uniting the Syrian territories.
Furthermore, Turkey backed al-Sharaa and HTS financially. Israel sees Turkey as a greater threat than Russia. Turkey has accused Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza and supports Palestinians in their struggle against Israeli occupation. Turkey also has a conservative Muslim government. Israel seems to prefer Russia as a regional neighbor to Turkey. Now Erdogan spreads his influence in Syria.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now demanded that Syria maintain a demilitarized zone in the southernmost districts of Syria, which border Israel and the occupied Golan Heights. In a joint press conference with American Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Netanyahu warned against Israel’s enemies using the new Syrian state as a positioning ground for attacks against the Jewish state. In this manner, Israel perceives Turkey to be a greater threat than Russia.
The US has not taken a large role in the state-building of post-al-Assad Syria. However, as a global power broker, and Israel’s most reliable friend, Israel has pushed for the US to allow Russian presence in Syria. It is unclear how the US would go about doing this and if they have any intention to allow continued Russian presence. Russian presence in Syria has been unpopular in Europe and America since the Arab Spring, and al-Sharaa’s victory over al-Assad was seen the world over as a celebration of a weakened Russia.
Israel, continually petrified by hostile neighbors and quick to appear strong, has invaded Southern Syria and eliminated its military capacity. Israel’s endless war against its neighbors has resulted in strange bed-fellows, so they long for the days when Russia controlled Syria’s airspace.
