Mideast: What are Egypt and Turkey Doing in Libya?
Reuters
Today’s Libya is a divided country still reeling from the collapse of Muammar Ghaddafi’s regime in 2011. Currently, the North African country is separated by two rulers: Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and his Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA) in Tobruk. Both regimes are supported by foreign powers with the most active being Egypt, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates who back the LNA and Turkey, Qatar, and Iran who back the GNA. For Western powers, France has until recently been tacitly supporting General Haftar and most other Western countries including the United States, Italy, and Germany have broadly voiced support for the GNA. The United Nations have endorsed the GNA as well, owing to their role in establishing the group in the first place.
The UN helped create the group in 2015 to alleviate the rival administrations that came out of Libya’s 2014 election. In turn, the LNA, which was formally established in 2019, has been led by the above-mentioned Khalifa Haftar. Haftar was a former general for Qaddafi when he took power in 1969 but broke with the leader in the 1990’s and had allegedly assisted the CIA shortly after. The LNA has been able to garner control of land in Libya’s east and south, largely thanks to its support from its above backers. What remains of the conflict will largely be determined by each side’s respective backers, who are currently employing military means to garner their respective objectives in the country.
Tensions Mounting Between Egypt and Turkey
What’s happening in Libya today is of primary concern to two countries in the region: Egypt and Turkey, who both have their own visions of what they’d like Libya to look like and whom they would like in power. Currently, Egypt is on the verge of going to war in the country. If it does end up intervening in Libya, it will be to dissuade the GNA (backed by Turkey) from moving past the Sirte-Jufra line. The Sirte-Jufra line is a sort of redline created by the LNA and Egypt’s government led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the purpose of which is to stall military advancements made by the GNA and its Turkish funded mercenaries. Besides supporting the GNA with mercenaries, Turkey also is providing the party with weapons that are being countered by LNA support from Russia which has also allegedly been sending mercenaries to Haftar. As a result of Turkey’s involvement with the GNA and its advancement into the Sirte-Jufra line, tensions have come to ahead between Egypt and the Turkish government. Each country has similar enough military might and their allies more or less balance each other out; and according to the Africa Report, neither party could claim an all-out victory if they did end up engaging each other.
Why Are Egypt and Turkey Fighting Over Libya’s Government?
There remains one fundamental question as to Egyptian and Turkish involvement in Libya — what’s in it for them? Well, to begin with, for Egypt, Libya is a territorial neighbor. Meaning that any sort of conflict happening within the country can very well leak into Egypt. As such, its primary goal in any sort of action in Libya would probably be its want to protect the country’s security, most importantly along its borders. Of course, allegations remain that Egypt is interfering in Libya’s affairs for other reasons, namely for economic gain. For Turkey, this seems like the probable reason for its support of the GNA. Libya is energy-rich, and Turkey through military intervention is seeking to gain control over oil supply lines in the country. The Turkish government, which is facing other issues including the possibility EU imposed sanctions would stand to benefit from aligning with a pro-Turkish North African government.
In recent days, Turkey has rejected an Egyptian ceasefire initiative on the grounds that Egypt has made no strives towards unity in the region and its intentions are allegedly only out of self-interest. The ceasefire came after a series of failures by Haftar’s forces and called for the removal of mercenaries from Libya as well as talks between the rival organizations. However, recent belligerences near Sirte by the GNA seem to indicate that neither side is backing down, all though escalation could very well take the form of continued asymmetric warfare as opposed to all-out military intervention.
What Does This Mean For Libya?
It remains to be seen what foreign intervention on Libya will mean for the country’s wellbeing and for its citizenry. Libya has in the last decade seen monumental destruction: politically, economically, and socially. Neither Egypt nor Turkey is equipped to solve Libya’s most crucial problems: it’s political instability, it’s handling of migrant workers, human rights problems, the sustained presence of ISIS in the region. The list goes on. Libya will continue to be split between rivaling factions until a foreign entity, perhaps Egypt or Turkey, either stop supporting factions with material resources or military means or chooses to extend itself further into conflict until the point of intervention. The former although seems unlikely considering recent escalations in the region, is perhaps the most likely possibility in such a volatile region, where geopolitical alignments shift regularly. But it remains that for ordinary Libyans, a truly democratic Libya (in whatever fashion it may take) is not likely with several foreign players working within the country. Libya has not fared well since 2011, and further geopolitical rough-handling in the country is unlikely to help the country fare any bit better.
