China View: Complex Social Ties with Mongolia
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The history of Mongolia and China has repeatedly made these civilizations cross paths or separate depending on the politico-economic contexts both were undergoing. Since Imperial China, Mongol figures like Genghis Khan have had an important role in Chinese heritage. One of the greatest constructions renowned for being visible from satellites - the Great Wall of China - was finalized between the 13th-14th century to keep the Mongols from invading China. Despite this world may be too far away to thoroughly understand the initial encounters of these populations, millennials may remember the legendary Disney movie of “Mulan,” which indeed recounts the true story of Chinese warriors protecting China from foreign armies at that time. Below, the attached opening scene of the cartoon shows the presence of the Mongols and Genghis Khan, portrayed as a barbarian and dark army, while taking over the Great Wall. Although this scene only belongs to a movie for children, it confirms the importance of geopolitics in our lives already from a very young age. History later proceeded by effectively ceding China to the Mongols with the Yuan Dynasty under Genghis’ grandson - Kublai Khan - in 1271. From here, the start of a complex relationship between China and Mongolia.
Mongolia and Inner Mongolia (Credit: The Economist Intelligence Unit)
The unification of these civilizations continued for centuries, eventually making the Chinese-Mongolian one among the most relevant ethnic groups inhabiting Northern China. Mongolia only effectively became a sovereign state in 1911 during the fall of the Qing Empire, however, it still shares a significant border with the Chinese province of Inner Mongolia to this day. To the side, a political map shows the geographical location of this province. The independent Republic of Mongolia (also referred to as Outer Mongolia), sandwiched between China (to the south) and Russia (to the North), presents a Sino-Mongolian border that totals 4676 kilometers. Other than Inner Mongolia, this country also shares borders with the Chinese provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang.
Mongolia is, since 1990, a semi-presidential representative democratic republic in an authoritarian neighborhood, considered a “free” state according to Freedom House. This means that, in comparison with China, Mongolia presents numerous political and social differences. For instance, Mongolia is a multiparty system where people may directly elect the President (who appoints the Prime Minister) and are also protected by a series of constitutional freedoms, including freedom of expression and religion. Therefore, the Mongolian State is incredibly different both from China and Russia, which is believed to be Mongolia’s closest friend. Current President Khaltmaagiin Battulga won the election in 2017 as a representative of the Democratic Party, winning the 50.6% of votes with a 60.7% turnout.
But why is Mongolia so important to China? China is particularly attracted to the Mongolian economy due to the vast natural resources it can offer. Mongolia is one of the world’s fifteen coal-richest countries, where mining contributes to 21% of the GDP. Other than enormous coal deposits, Mongolia is also copper and gold-rich, a quality that turns out to be very beneficial to China’s construction sector. In fact, as Mongolia’s largest importer, China then eventually employs these materials into the mega-urban projects it is renowned for.
But, China also has other strategic reasons to cooperate with Mongolia. Due to the long-lasting friendship between Ulaan Baatar and Moscow, China could consider Mongolia as an essential piece to the puzzle completing Sino-Russian relations. In fact, China would not so easily connect with a democratic neighbor, but it may understand that the acceptance of the Mongolian government is essential to maintain cooperation with Moscow at its best.
Another reason is that, since 2015, Mongolia has been undergoing a deep economic crisis that could indirectly benefit the geopolitical power of the Chinese government. According to the Natural Resource Governance Institute, “Mongolia’s debt crisis was caused by a combination of wildly over-optimistic revenue projections based on unrealistic expectations of mineral sector revenue growth, off-budget spending, and a plethora of small infrastructure projects with questionable economic development benefits.” It seems that, in 2011, the Mongolian government had initiated a series of policies that had effectively brought unprecedented and immediate growth, only to make the economy collapse later in 2015. As a result, poverty remains a widespread social issue and the wealth gap has widened. What better context for inviting Mongolia into the China-driven Belt and Road Initiative? With the local government unable to provide for infrastructure, education, or health, Chinese investment could not have reached Mongolia at a better time.
Sources report that BRI projects promising to establish joint economic zones, improve infrastructure in the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor, and provide roads and railways for the transportation of minerals inside and outside Mongolia have certainly been solidifying ties between the two countries. According to articles by CGTN and Xinhua News, two state-owned Chinese media, Sino-Mongolian relations are improving amid Coronavirus outbreak thanks to the mutual help Ulaan Baatar and Beijing are providing for each other. President Battulga was the first foreign president to visit Xi Jinping during the pandemic in a symbol of support.
However, experts believe that China-Mongolia relations are rather one-sided than mutual and that the latter may be heavily dependent on Beijing. Because Mongolia is in need of financial aid, China is “prepared to negotiate a potential US$4.2 billion loan agreement.” Therefore, the main concern is essentially that Mongolia is increasing its debt with China, and that initiatives such as the BRI may only contribute to it further. After the experience of Sri Lanka, having to lease a port to China for 99 years due to overwhelming debt, some have become skeptical about China’s BRI. Among these, nationalistic groups in Mongolia question whether this might be an attempt to gain sovereignty over poor areas of the world.
The Mongolian population, on the other hand, has shown dissent towards decisions made by the central government for years and does not seem satisfied with the choices of the ruling party. Sinophobia and environmental activism are two of the reasons explaining the anti-China position of Mongolian society. A must-watch documentary by CNA explains this stance from the perspective of different social groups in Mongolia.
