China View: Abe's Sayonara and the Redistribution of Regional Power
The Asahi Shimbun
On August 28th, the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun communicated Shinzo Abe’s decision to resign as Prime Minister. This prompt leave may be due to both the frequent health problems Abe had been suffering from since 2007, and the deep economic crisis Japan is undergoing after two COVID-19 waves. Creator of “Abenomics,” the strategy that lifted up the economy of Japan from 2012-onwards, it has been a shock to many both inside and outside Japan that the global disaster of the pandemic will not be supported by the same leadership. While multiple leaders worldwide have paid their respects to Abe publicly on social media, wishing him a full recovery, the main worry in Japan remains tied to the unprecedented fall of the GDP. As shown from the line chart below, the fourth quarter of 2019 has marked a continuous and precipitous decrease of the GDP which, according to sources, is comparable to post-World War II values.
Japan’s 2020 GDP drop amid pandemic. (CREDIT: Reuters)
Japan, therefore, is undergoing a weak moment both politically and economically-speaking, meaning its role in East Asia may emerge as passive as ever. This is because, as stated by BBC, its “nationalist agenda has been primarily domestically focused.” Among the richest and most developed economies in Asia, Japan has long benefited from a certain level of independence, engaging with countries like China, South Korea, and those in ASEAN without necessarily depending heavily on the regional economy. Instead, it has always been politically attached to the U.S. (e.g. Trans-Pacific Partnership), while only intensifying trading relations with China. The reason concerning the diversification of the Japanese geopolitical strategy from the Chinese one is mainly that Japan, being aware China is aiming to become the hegemon in Asia, prefers to make friends with economically-stable and influential countries that would provide support in the Pacific, such as Australia and U.S.
What would Abe’s resignation mean for Asian regionalism, however, remains an unanswered question. With China being the first country in the world to have recovered successfully from various COVID-19 waves, it is likely that China will newly emerge as the most powerful leader in East Asia. In fact, while most of the world economies were on lockdown, Chinese in all cities were already back to the workplace by the beginning of summer 2020. This means that, while China surely must resolve domestic issues too, it will likely be the first power to lean out from its secure borders to assess whether it is safe to step out again.
Asian Review Nikkei also believes Japan has overall suffered from the recent worsening of U.S.-China relations. Just like South Korea in Modern Treatise’s “South Korea Between Two Hegemonies” article, Japan is put in a difficult position too, as both countries may pressure it to get closer to one or the other, especially if Japan undergoes a period of weak or no leadership.
All, of course, depends on whether the successor of Abe will choose to continue or change the current Japanese foreign policy approach. Because diplomatic ties with China mainly improved after 2018, the option one would think Chinese politicians will favor is that to continue the collaboration with Japan, Abe-style. A similar leadership to that of the former Prime Minister, indeed, is possible because of the popularity of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), where Abe was elected from. A potential change in the status quo could be risky for Sino-Japanese relations, because Beijing would prefer working with pragmatic leaders it is already acquainted with, rather than having to deal with the unknown.
Regardless of who will be chosen as the new Japanese Prime Minister, it is certain the successor will have to face many challenges on the domestic and international stages alike. In fact, he will be given the deed of planning strategies for the economic rebound of Japan while respecting the conservativist approach cherished by the LDP. Events like the Tokyo Olympics will be central to demonstrate the wellbeing of Japan and would be among the first duties in the political agenda. At the same time, on a global level, there is the possibility that the new administration will have to face a new leadership in the U.S., as elections come to a conclusion. All this, while making sure to prioritize Japan and enhance relations will the countries able to provide a valid vaccine against COVID-19. From the other side of the shore, China will be watching closely, to analyze how to re-approach Sino-Japanese diplomacy with better benefits.
What will happen to the territories disputed between China and Japan during this period of transition? If one reasons according to the realist theory, portraying states as individual actors acting out of self-interest, a potential Chinese diplomatic move to englobe the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in its territory is not out of the question. The East China Sea has been a key factor of Sino-Japanese competitiveness, translating their economic ambitions into a terrestrial “cold” conflict in the islands. Various incidents involving ships and fishermen have nearly led to military conflicts between the two. In this moment, Japan is in disadvantage, and the problem is that China knows. As politically stable power with terrific control over its territory, Xi’s government is of the confident and ambitious type.
However, Beijing is very aware that if it uses its binocular to stretch its gaze towards Tokyo, it will see Washington right behind its shoulders. Japan’s solid alliance with the U.S. is an obstacle for China, and a benefit for Japan because, this way, China is unlikely to make sudden foreign policy changes. Also, as shown from a video by the South China Morning Post below, before leaving, Abe made sure to engage China in different initiatives that will go on after its resignation. Among these, China’s agreement to strengthen ties with Japan ahead of the G20 summit participation.
Finally, whether China’s attitude towards Japan and the region will change clearly depends on the people that will rise to power abroad. This not only stands for Japan, but also for the U.S. It could be that, if Biden is elected, relations with the emerging Japanese Prime Minister could not be as positive as those shared between Abe and Trump. China, however, could have adopt softer stance if the future ruler in Japan will be more embracing of Japan’s responsibilities in Chinese history. After all, a huge obstacle that stands to this day is the problem that Japan did not apologize enough for its doings during the Japanese Occupation of China, according to Chinese public opinion.
Through soft or hard power, however, it is certain that this dark period for Japan will redistribute power in the region and China is likely to have a more extended role on economic regionalism. Strategies thanks to which Japan and China have long worked together in other parts of Asia, like the ASEAN+3, could be more reliant on Beijing’s decision-making rather than Tokyo’s. This is mainly because the Chinese are ready to invest, while Japanese firms are not in the same condition.
