Europe — A Continent Divided

The last time an event like this occurred, the two nations involved sent troops to kill each other. The French ambassador was recalled from Mussolini’s Italy, and in return, the Italian dictator sent his soldiers across the Alps as Hitler’s forces annihilated the French military. Since then France and Italy have generally been on good terms - until now. Last Thursday, French president Emmanuel Macron recalled his ambassador from Rome. The French president couldn’t suffer the Italians anymore; or rather, their deputy prime ministers.

First blood was drawn by the Italian deputy prime ministers, most notably by Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the Five Star movement, one of the competing anti-establishment forces in Italy. Di Maio pushed Macron over the edge when he met with members of the yellow vests. The yellow vests erupted as a movement in November of last year and have been demonstrating against the French government ever since. The protests were sparked by a rigid fuel tax raise meant to discourage driving that proved disastrous for everyone not living in metropolitan Paris

Emmanuel Macron is an easy target for populist protesters. Macron is an accident of history; he ran an outsider campaign for the French presidency that was not expected to gain any traction. Whatever media attention he received was due to the general interest, the same way politicians without hope are given attention in America.

It was thought that the center-right Republican candidate, Francois Fillon was expected to be the clear favorite. His opponents included the Socialist Party candidate, who was running on the heels of an unpopular Socialist president and thus had little chance of victory; Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front; and Emmanuel Macron, the former Socialist Party minister.

A miracle for Macron occurred late into the election. The Republican candidate becomes saturated with corruption charges that kneecapped his popularity. No candidate won a clear majority in the general election. There would have to be a runoff between the two most popular candidates: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Macron would win an overwhelming victory.

Despite being a dark horse in the election, President Macron proved to be a stereotypical establishment leader. The outsider candidate enjoyed a honeymoon period of media admiration and high approval. With the British exiting the European Union, many in the media, with their typical insufferable grandeur, labeled the Europhilic Macron as the leader of the free world. All of this made President Macron public enemy number one with the various anti-establishment groups, and soon Macron’s lack of political skill and charisma would be exploited.

The European Union’s general elections are coming in May, and for populist leaders like Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio, that means choosing an enemy to fight. After multiple jabs, the populist and the establishmentarian finally collided after the former met with a yellow vest who called for a military coup against Macron, and Macron in return would recall his ambassador from Rome – more than 75 years after the two nations were at war.

This is a snapshot of Europe’s potential future: the dichotomy of two Europes. While this moment in history can easily be more attributed to Emmanuel Macron getting his feelings hurt too easily, and the deputy prime ministers of Italy needlessly antagonizing the French President, the roots of this conflict is very real and span throughout Europe.

Populists anti-establishment parties are proliferating throughout Europe. They are strong in Italy, posed an electoral challenge in France and the Netherlands, control Poland and Hungary, and are increasing in number in Germany and Finland. They are not all ideologically alike, and many differ greatly, but they are united in that they are tired of the old order – and many are tired of the European Union.

There are only two potential solutions for the establishment if they want to preserve Europe: either wait out this populist and hard-Eurosceptic wave or take some of the anti-establishment grievances more seriously. To their detriment, it seems that the European establishment has chosen the former option.

Populism is an organizing of emotion rather than a political philosophy. Populism, no matter where is almost always exaggerated and prone to the mob. Only rarely is there a popular movement built on philosophical principles; the Tea Party movement in the US being the most notable example. But beneath the passions of the mob, there is almost always a core a truth.

There is some justification for the animas of the European anti-Establishment; most notably the botched handling of the refugee crisis. It would behoove the establishments in Europe to invite anti-establishment candidates in. Failing to do so, which they probably will cultivate an environment of greater mistrust. This will only inflame anti-establishment forces even more and propel them to greater popularity.

It does not take a strenuous exercise of imagination to see a Europe in which progress is impeded by conflicts between the establishment and alternative parties. Leaders like President Macron would be wise to realize this and remember that empires die from within.