The Commons: An Independent Wales?
Poligrafistka
For many, the notion of Welsh Independence feels an irrelevant topic. A small nation of just over 3 million, matters of the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd Cymru, fall to the wayside when discussing British affairs. This being the case, on July 15th and for the first time in its history, the Senedd debated a Welsh Independence motion. While the motion failed, it serves as a representation of changing times in the United, or not-so-United, Kingdom.
The last few months have put pressure on an already fractured union. Rising support for “sub-state nationalism” combined with the economic reality of Brexit and COVID-19 have pushed Scotland and Wales further away from Westminster.
Scotland’s push for independence provides the Welsh movement with both a barometer as to Westminster’s reaction and a blueprint for how nations in the Union can go about becoming independent. Similar to Scotland, Welsh independence seems more realistic than it previously would have because of the diplomatic uncertainty and economic insecurity surrounding Brexit. In Holyrood, the argument is that Scotland’s ability to function in the global economy is hindered by Britain leaving the EU – a decision that all of Scotland voted against. In Wales, the argument is slightly different. While the SNP’s argument largely focuses on their legal ability to self-govern, the Welsh push is also concerned with the cultural difference found between Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom. Wales holds close a unique “language and tradition,” a factor that plays into their discussion around independence. Nothing is more telling of this than the party behind the movement itself: Plaid Cymru.
Formed in 1926, Plaid Cymru – Welsh for “the Party of Wales” – began focused on the “preservation and continuation of the Welsh language” within Wales. As of 2019, 29.6% of the Welsh population, over the age of 3, were able to speak Welsh, compared to less than 2% of the Scottish population that can speak Gaelic. Plaid has historically been a party focused on “cultural issues rather than socioeconomic concerns,” though this is something they’ve been trying to address since the 1960s. With the help of younger generations, the second half of the 20th century saw the party’s aims grow; As Plaid matured, it has set its sights on bigger ambitions, namely, independence.
For the United Kingdom, the last six months have been anything but united. Wales’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has diverged from Westminster, after it became clear to the Senedd that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s “four nation” approach was not working. Leader of Plaid Cymru, Adam Price, has given credit to the “the Labour-led administration in Cardiff credit for showing independence from Westminster during the pandemic, with the Welsh response differing markedly from the approach in England.” Public support for the Senedd’s handling of the pandemic was at 62% in June, overshadowing a meek 34% who think that Westminster is handling the pandemic well. To Adam Price, this is a moment in which Wales has “proven” that it can act “independently to protect [its] citizens from the dysfunctionality and ineptitude of the Westminster government.” COVID-19 has pulled the question of indepence from the shadows of a small nationalist party to the debating chamber of the Senedd. Price believes that, for the first time, people in Wales are becoming aware of the “clear constitutional tensions that exist” between Westminster and Wales, as well a “leading many to question the long-term viability of the current settlement.” Why be in a Union if Wales alone can protect and provide for its residents better than Westminster can?
COVID-19 aside, it would seem that Johnson’s lack of concern around Welsh Independence, compared to that of Scotland, has worked in Plaid’s favor: the Prime Minister does not see Welsh nationalism as a legitimate threat to the Union. Countless visits to Edinburgh over the last few months have made clear that the SNP is of more concern to Westminster than Plaid. For Wales, the question is, if Johnson wants to keep the UK united, shouldn’t he also be paying attention to the Senedd?
Understandably, the SNP is Scotland’s majority party, making up nearly 50% of the seats in Scottish Parliament – Plaid only makes up 16.7% of the seats in the Senedd. As well, support for Scottish independence has been climbing over the last 6 months, with a comfortable 53% of eligible voters saying they would vote for leaving the UK. As of June, Only 25% of Welsh voters would support independence, while 54% would stick with Westminster. While the material support for Welsh independence is weak compared to that of Scotland, one has to consider how Scotland got to the numbers it now has. Dismissal from Westminster and a lack of self-governance are both factors in the SNP’s rise. Could this end up being the case for Wales?
Westminster is caught in a tricky state of affairs. The question is, by dismissing Wales as a threat and focusing on Scotland, will England push both nations further away? For many, it would seem that each trip Boris Johnson takes up to Edinburgh reinforces just how disconnected Wales and England are, a fact that will not serve the United Kingdom well.