The Commons: A Brexit That Never Ends
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Though the UK left the European Union on January 31st of this year, much was left undealt with. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s hope was to negotiate trade deals with the EU before October 15th and other nations accordingly. Unfortunately for him, COVID-19 has thrown a wrench in Brexit’s progress: stalling trade talks and creating issues for his leadership. Not only this, but coverage of Brexit in the media has waned in the last few months, with the pandemic commanding the news cycle. Where most Britons used to know at least the headlines of the Brexit situation, many have lost sight of it completely. So, what has been going on?
In effect from January has been the Withdrawal Agreement, which outlines the terms of the Implementation Period – also known as “the transition.” This agreement has allowed for the UK to remain in the EU Single Market and Customs Union while the new terms of a UK-EU partnership are negotiated. The transition will last until the end of this year, at which point, if the UK has not managed to spark a deal with the EU, the regions would be subject to the basic trade rules set out by the World Trade Organization. Under WTO regulations, tariffs would be applied to UK exports to the EU, a cost increase that could pose a real risk for British businesses. As of 2019, 43% of all UK exports were to the EU. WTO tariffs would compromise the profitability of importing goods and services from Britain – hence the importance of drafting a comprehensive trade deal. Not only would a no deal departure make British imports more expensive for the EU, it would make EU imports more expensive for Britain. Considering that the EU supplies 51% of all UK imports, this added cost could create a massive issue for trans-channel trade flows and UK importers as well.
Another issue the UK faces currently concerns its trade relationship to nations outside the EU. As part of the EU, the UK was included in “around 40 trade deals which the EU had struck with more than 70 countries,” representing near 11% of UK trade as of 2018. 19 of these deals are set to roll over into the new year, around 8% of UK trade, leaving near 3% left unaccounted for.
Many would argue that the UK’s greatest success so far is the trade deal it has negotiated with Japan. The nation was and remains key to Britain’s economic and COVID-19 recovery. The UK-Japan trade deal is similar to the 2018 EU-Japan deal, allowing for “99% of UK exports to Japan” to remain free of tariffs. The negotiations with Japan mark Britain’s first independent success at trade negotiations since the 1970s.
Of recent Brexit controversy is the Internal Market Bill passed on September 14th. After a lengthy debate, the bill passed by a vote of 340 to 263. The bill explicitly “breaches part of the Northern Ireland protocol as set out in the withdrawal agreement signed with the EU,” by granting ministers the ability to “unilaterally unravel sections” of the agreement. The vote openly undermines the Good Friday accord and has created waves not only within Parliament but across the globe.
For Johnson and the MPs in support of this bill, they are not to blame for the decision. In the words of Tory MP Angela Jenkyns had the EU “negotiate[d] in good faith,” Parliament would not have to “protect” the country.
In Westminster, the Bill has exacerbated growing tension within Johnson’s own party. Total, 30 Tory MPs abstained from voting while 2, Sir Roger Gale and Andrew Percy, voted against. The eyes of the British and European public are now on a proposed amendment to the bill, to be debated next week. The amendment comes from within Johnson’s own party, from Tory MP and former minister Bob Neill. Set to create a “parliamentary veto on overriding the UK-EU divorce deal,” the bill is more favourable as to the UK’s maintaining international respectability. Without the amendment, the Bill could create tension for Britain in negotiating new trade deals, especially with the United States. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is quoted in the Guardian, claiming that “If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress.”
The bill still has to make it through the House of Lords, in which the Conservatives do not hold a majority. Regardless of the outcome, many see this as just another break in Johnson’s continued fracturing of the British establishment. Not only does it anger Labour, but it adds to tension within the Conservative Party, eroding the foundation of trust Johnson will need if he wants to see Brexit and COVID-19.