European Central: Germany's New Prime Minister May Change Course of EU
KAY NIETFELD
As Angela Merkel was such a dominate force in not only German Politics but European Union politics as well, there was intense discussion over whether or not the next Chancellor would fill her shoes in both realms during the campaigns before the German elections. If not, it was thought French President Macron would become the dominate force in the EU to fill the void left by Merkel. However, from Chancellor Scholz’s first international trip as Chancellor to Paris it is clear he is willing to step up and continue Germany’s involvement in EU politics and Macron will not be standing alone.
There will be some differences however between Merkel and Scholz as they come from different political parties. Chancellor Scholz followed the tradition of taking his first international trip to Paris as former Chancellors have including Angela Merkel, but it is clear he differs on policy. Scholz is a member of the Social Democrats and formed a coalition with the Greens and Liberal Free Democrats. One of the first issues that will represent a challenge to this coalition is the Nord Stream II pipeline which coincides with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The Social Democrats are not on the same page with Greens regarding Russia and the Nord Stream II pipeline. Chancellor Scholz views the pipeline favorably and as a necessity while Germany works to wean itself off of coal and nuclear energy. The Greens oppose the pipeline first and foremost for environmental reasons but also because they are strong supporters of Ukraine. Anna Baerbock also views Russia as the culprit of the increase in energy prices in Europe. This is because Russia has been sending less energy to Europe. Regardless of what Scholz and Baerbock may think, it is clear that Nord Stream II will not receive its certification in the first six months of 2022. This is because a subsidiary must be created in order to be in compliance with EU regulations. The pipeline is currently owned by the Russian gas company Gazprom.
An associate professor of political Science at Université libre de Bruxelles, Amandine Crespy, thinks that the German government will be harsher on Hungary and Poland in comparison to Merkel. While Scholz and his coalition government may try to put more pressure on Poland and Hungary to abide by EU laws and regulations, it is important to remember that Scholz will only be able to do so much. While Article 51 in the treaty of the European Union allows member states to leave like Great Britain did, there is no treaty that allows the bloc to force out a member state. These two member states also used the European Union’s budget which requires unanimous approval as leverage to prevent the bloc from having a strong mechanism in place to force member states to follow EU laws. The bloc has considered other methods to discipline these member states to little avail. It isn’t a question of Angela Merkel ignoring the illiberal reforms in these two member states, but more of an issue of how the bloc can force them into compliance with the rule of law. Another example which highlights the difficulty is Poland has still not had its National Plan of Resilience and Recovery passed due to conditions attached to it. Compared to other member states, the pandemic did not hurt its national economy as hard.
China will prove to be a contentious issue for Scholz to deal with in his coalition as the Greens and Social Democrats appear at odds. The Social Democrats appreciate how important China is to the German economy. While other countries may have an unequal trade balance with China, Germany exports a lot to China. Almost 50 percent of Volkswagen cars manufactured in Germany are exported to China. The Greens on the other hand do not want foreign policy decisions to be guided by the economy. This would mean Germany would have a stronger reaction to alleged human rights issues along with other problems with China. At the same time, this has the potential to hurt the German economy, which Scholz may be reluctant to take this risk. At the same time, he will need to balance the demand of the three parties in the coalition or the government will collapse.
Looking at the European Parliament results from Germany from the most recent election in 2019, it is clear that the new coalition will have some allies in this branch of the European Union. The Greens won 20.5 percent and the Social Democrats won 18.5 percent in the last election. However, the Christian Democrats remain the largest German party represented in the European Parliament. The good news for Scholz is he will not have to contend with as large a portion of German Members of European Parliament being Eurosceptic compared to other member states. The European Parliament has several important powers, including voting on and amending EU legislation, along with deciding the bloc’s budget. This potential support from German MEPs can help Scholz secure Germany’s place as an important member state.
It is impossible to predict the future of politics, but Chancellor Scholz is likely to step up and be a dominate actor in the European Union. This has the potential of helping the European Union continue to evolve and address its weaknesses, instead of collapsing as is predicted every time the European Union suffers from some turmoil. While it is preferred for everything to always improve, the future is not doomed just because there are some challenges.
