European Central: Can Georgia Salvage European Union Membership Aspirations?
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President Salome Zourabichvili of Georgia has made it clear she aims to apply for membership to the European Union in 2024. She demonstrated this with repeated trips to the European Union, including the first trip she made abroad as president in 2019. Zaurabichvili recently pointed out that Georgia has historical ties to Europe, being a Christian country since the 4th century, the nation was the first producer of wine, had a female king in the 12th century, and gave women the right to vote in 1918. While she did not include this, in modern times she is the first female president of Georgia, an accomplishment that a large number of current member states in the European Union have yet to see.
Democratic Backsliding Hurts Zourabichvili’s Ambitions
While President Zourabichvili has worked to convince the European Union that Georgia maintains European values, the country has a lot of work to prove it is a fully democratic country. A fully democratic nation would not arrest the leader of the main political opposition, yet this is exactly what happened in Georgia on the 23rd of February this year when Nika Melia, leader of the United National Movement party was taken into custody. Protestors tried to barricade themselves around Melia, but riot police were able to use tear gas in order to break up the crowd and arrest him. Authorities in Georgia maintain that Nika Melia has been detained because he incited opposition-backed riots in 2019. Further complicating the situation, Prime Minister Georgi Gakharia resigned due to disagreeing with the decision to imprison Nika Melia. He was the sixth prime minister that Georgia has in six years.
Despite this frequent succession of prime ministers, all have been members of the same political party, Georgian Dream, which has maintained control of the parliament since 2012. There is some concern with this political party, founded by Bidzina Ivanishvili. He is the richest citizen of Georgia and there is concern that he uses his financial resources to control the political situation of Georgia. He was also the first Georgian Dream Prime Minister in 2012, and all those who have come after him are seen as his political pawns.
The integrity of Georgian Political Elections
There are also concerns about the election that President Zourabichvili won herself in 2018. While she ran as an independent, Zourbichvili was supported by Georgian Dream in the second round of the election. Only days before Georgians voted in the second round, Bidzina Ivanishvili promised to wipe out debt for 600,000 Georgians through a charitable foundation he runs. This meant the debt was wiped out for one out of every six voters. Wiping the debt for this many voters was viewed as a way to buy votes and manipulate the outcome of the election.
The European Union attempted to hold mediated talks between Georgian Dream and United National Movement, but this effort proved unsuccessful. European Council president sent Christian Danielsson as the EU mediator, who spent a week in Tbilisi to try to break the political stalemate between the political parties. When these talks proved successful, Danielsson returned to Brussels on March 19th. This failure has called into question the capability of the European Union to have a major role in international diplomacy if the European Union was unsuccessful in Georgia where the majority of citizens are pro-EU and want the nation to become a member state. This stalemate is a result of the 2020 parliamentary elections in Georgia and began in November of 2020 before Nika Melia was taken into custody. The European Union itself classified the elections as competitive and respected fundamental freedoms.
As the European Union is already concerned with democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary, it is unlikely that the European Union would admit another member state that it would have to be concerned about. Georgia was already only rated as partly-free by Freedom House, which monitors democracy around the world and ranks countries as free, partly-free, or not free. Freedom House acknowledges that the country has elections held regularly and are competitive, but politics remain dominated by oligarchic actors.
Territorial Disputes
The European Union is not keen on accepting countries as member states with ongoing territorial disputes. Unfortunately for Georgia, not one, but two regions are trying to declare independence. Georgia maintains that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are autonomous within Georgia, but the two regions claim they are independent. Both regions have claimed independence since shortly after Georgia broke away from the Soviet Union in 1991. Both regions use the Russian Ruble instead of the Georgia’s currency, the Iari. The European Union stated that it recognizes the regional integrity of Georgia and it does not recognize the declaration of independence or Abkhazia or South Ossetia. When Abkhazia held presidential elections in March of 2020, the European Union declared the elections themselves and the results as illegal. It is worth knowing that the European Union frowns upon drawing borders solely based on ethnic divisions. Before the war, there was a significant population of ethnic Georgians in both, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. It is estimated 192,000 Georgians fled these two regions during the war as a result of ethnic cleansing aimed at Georgians.
Unfortunately for Georgia, despite the support from the European Union and the majority of members in the United Nations, Russia does not support Georgia’s claims over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As many countries are aware, Russia is a powerful enemy. Georgia personally knows this due to the five-day Russo-Georgian War of 2008. Russia intervened to protect Abkhazia and South Ossetia when Georgian forces seized Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. Georgia used military force to enter the two regions when separatists from Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not respect a ceasefire. Georgia and Russia agreed to a ceasefire after Russia secured both regions and started pushing into the rest of Georgia.
While the European Union may have been willing to work more with Georgia on the issue of territorial disputes and how it impacts Georgia’s chances of acceding to the European Union, this is currently unlikely. Since Brexit, it appears that the European Union is being more cautious about accepting more member states. This can be seen with the delays regarding letting Albania and North Macedonia into the European Union. Some member states are still concerned over these two member states not being ready yet due to lingering problems of corruption. Corruption is also a concern in Georgia, as several supporters of the Georgian Dream party were awarded public contracts related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
