European Central: Lithuania's Border Crisis With Belarus

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Many have heard about the saga of Roman Protasevich, the Belarusian journalist who was taken into custody after his flight from Athens to Vilnius was diverted to Minsk. The European Union then hit Belarus with heavy sanctions in retaliation. Belarus is punishing Lithuania now by allowing migrants to flood Lithuania. Lukashenko stated Belarus would no longer prevent asylum seekers, drugs, and nuclear materials from entering the European Union. Lithuania has already seen 1,700 migrants arrive via Belarus. Over 700 of these migrants arrived in the country in the first week of July alone. While this may seem like a small number, it is important to remember that Lithuania has been traditionally a country of emigration and has seen 900,000 Lithuanians move away since the population peaked at 3.7 million in 1990. Only 75 migrants were detained in Lithuania in 2020 meanwhile Lithuania saw twice the amount detained in a 24 period this year. Lithuania estimated that there were 81 migrant crossings in 2020 while this has risen to over 800 this year, and five months remain of the year.

While this unexpected migration is causing a stressful situation for Lithuania, it is important to point out that this is simply another feeble attempt from Lukashenko, Europe’s longest dictator who is desperate to hold onto power. Not only is he facing opposition from the European Union and the United States, but he is facing opposition from within Belarus. Lukashenko is also in trouble as his former opponent from the Presidential election continues to meet with world leaders and helps keep Belarus in the spotlight of the international community. While Lithuania is initially struggling, it is important to remember that Lithuania can ask for support from other EU member states while Lukashenko continues to back himself into a corner. This support can be seen from the European Union which has already sent agents from Frontex, the European Union’s border agency.

At the same time, being a member state of the European Union may have partially brought this migration crisis onto Lithuania. The European Union has started to apply more and more sanctions on Belarus since the 2020 election in August which was not viewed as free and fair. After Lukashenko’s regime took Roman Protasevich into custody, the EU has applied even heavier sanctions to Belarus. Now it is banned to sell directly or even indirectly technology, equipment, software that can be used to monitor or interfere with internet access. This is important as Lukashenko is partially able to remain in power due to making it difficult for his political opponents to have a voice. The EU has also restricted the trade of petroleum products and potash which are key exports for Belarus. This can be a large blow to the Belarussian economy since these goods represent over 25 percent of exports and Belarus relies heavily on exportation to Europe. Over 42 percent of exports in 2019 were to Russia, but Germany and Poland are also among the top five destinations for Belarusian exports. While this may make the current situation worse for Lithuania, it may in the long run help remove Lukashenko from power if it becomes too difficult for him to hang onto his power.

While Belarus is opening its border with Lithuania to migrants, it has had to close the border it shares with Ukraine. Lukashenko fears that weapons are coming from Ukraine along with Germany, the United States, Lithuania, and Poland which can help support terrorists. This likely means he is concerned his citizens may try to overthrow him from power. However, Belarus also needs to be careful as Ukraine is the second most important country for exports only after Russia. As Russia is currently busy with other conflicts such as Crimea and attempting to claim the Champagne name for Russian sparkling wine producers, Putin may not make Belarus his top priority.

Lithuania’s Seimas (Parliament) has passed new legislation in response to the recent migrant crisis. Any migrant who crosses over from Belarus will stay in detention for at least six months. The vote passed with 84 members of the Seimas voting in support, one voted no, and 54 members abstained from voting. Migrants also can be deported even while their appeals are being considered. The processing time for asylum applications will be reduced from potentially months to only ten days. In addition, the country has started to construct a 550-km fence along the border it shares with Belarus.

NGOs are furious with Lithuania’s handling of the migrant crisis and feel Lithuania is punishing the migrants. NGOs point out that this legislation does not seem compatible with current European Union law on how potential asylum seekers should be handled. As many of these migrants are from the Middle East or Africa and particularly from war-torn countries, this is possible. However, it is yet to be seen what the European Union has to say about this. Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister has already visited Ankara and Baghdad to say that Lithuania would work towards stopping the illegal immigration to Lithuania and that migrants would be returned to their country of origin. Landsbergis maintains that the migrants crossing into Lithuania are economic migrants. Denmark has already announced that Syrian migrants will be returned home as soon as the situation is safe again. Possibly similar to Denmark, the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats which is currently Lithuania’s current party holding power needs to show it is willing to take a strong stance on migration to appease voters. Lithuania has accepted political refugees from Belarus who have spoken against Lukashenko but is now struggling to cope with the large increase which seems to have happened overnight.