European Central: Bulgaria, The Land of the Aging
Anadolu Agency
Bulgaria is one of the European Union's newer member states and joined alongside Romania in 2007. While this had benefits for the nation it also resulted in a major challenge. Bulgaria's economy has grown significantly since 2007 yet emigration remains high due to the European Union's freedom of movement. This has a negative impact on the nation as it removes workers from the workforce and consequentially slows down economic growth for the country. Besides emigration, the National Statistical Institute points to the low birth rate and high death rate as other factors contributing to the nation’s demographic woes. As more Bulgarians emigrate and fewer who remain have children the population continues to shrink, the country continues to struggle to reach the economic strength of wealthier member states such as Denmark and Luxembourg. Bulgaria reached its population peak in 1989 when it had just over 9 million inhabitants compared to 6.52 people who currently reside in the nation. Besides a lack of job opportunities, people move due to the drastic difference in wages. Bulgaria in 2018 had a median hourly wage of 2.4 euros meanwhile Denmark had a median hourly wage of , the highest in the European Union. Due to this significant wage difference migration is one way, out of the country as there is not a strong economic incentive in order to move to the nation.
The effect of deindustrialization has been felt all over Europe, including in Bulgaria. In the Gabrovo region of the country, there used to be 1,000 live births annually when the factories were pumping out goods yet last year there were only 263 live births. When the majority of factories closed no major industry moved in to replace the void leaving people without job opportunities. It is fairly straightforward to understand that without jobs to put food on the table, people are unable to have children and even remain living in the region. This has resulted in elderly people staying behind in the region who no longer have to work meanwhile younger workers emigrate to other EU nations under the freedom of movement of workers. Even then, life may become impossible for the few who remain. In the 17th village of Zaya, there is no grocery store and no polling station. 77-year-old drives elderly women to a grocery store in a nearby village. Given the driver's advanced age this may not be possibly in the near future. The village joined a program entitled "Grandchildren for Rent" which helps provide companionship for the elderly in Zaya and provide younger people the opportunity to live in a village. The abandonment of rural areas is not just a Bulgarian issue and can be seen with homes being sold in Italy for one euro and the area of Spain known as "Vacio España".
Bulgaria's current political crisis does little to help the resolve the demographic crisis either. Bulgaria has had four elections in the past year and a half. Part of the problem is no group of parties with similar values win enough of a portion to govern alone and instead have to form coalitions that collapse easily over political disagreements. While fragile coalitions are not helping the situation in Bulgaria, the most stable coalition this century which took power after the May election in 2013 saw protests daily against the government. This is the last thing that the poorest member state in the European Union needs when attempting to accomplish one of the bloc's main goals, economic convergence amongst member states.
It is also worth noting that Bulgaria had some challenges conducting the census the last time in 2021. As can be said for any nation the Bulgarian census had the challenge of citizens simply refusing to partecipate. The website for the cnesus was also repeatedly hacked. Another factor that inhibited the nation from having a fully accurate count were citizens who were hospitalized or had to quarrantine for Covid-19. While this may have resulted in an undercount of residents in the country in 2021, it is still safe to say that Bulgaria’s population has dwindled for decades and an undercount is not hiding a surprise population increase. If this study is accurate, Bulgaria’s population may shrink to as low as 2.28-2.62 million people.
Bulgaria's demographic issues will not be resolved immediately and instead will require longterm planning. Fragile coalitions will have to find a way to compromise in order to promote economic growth and find creative solutions to deal with the demographic crisis. Bulgaria is stuck in a vicious cycle of a lack of economic opportunities leading to fewer births and continuous emigration. As people cannot live forever just yet, deaths contribute to the population decline as well.
