European Central: Russia Aims To Control Moldova
Magnilion
European Central: Russia’s Plan To Control Moldova
Moldova has feared a potential invasion from Russia, and a recently leaked document does little to comfort the nation. While Moldova borders Romania, an EU member state to the west, Ukraine is directly to the east of the nation. This document was drafted by the FSB, Russia’s security service. The leaked document is entitled “Strategic Objectives of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova.” and details Russia’s intent to control Moldova politically by 2030. It does not mention physically occupying the nation, yet nothing says that that is not part of Russia’s long-term plan.
Besides gaining political control of Moldova, Russia also wants to weaken its economy. In order to achieve this, the goal is to ensure that Moldova remains dependent on Russian energy. Seemingly uncoincidentally, an energy crisis began in Moldova when Russia was demanding a significantly higher price for energy when Moldova’s energy contract with Russia expired the same year the document was written. In 2021, Gazprom, a Russian state-owned energy company cut gas delivery by a third to Moldova and increased the price dramatically until a new contract was agreed upon. In 2022, households had to spend 70 percent of their entire household income on just utility bills. The Russian energy Gazprom has been threatening to stop providing energy to Moldova repeatedly. Moldova is attempting to pay its debts to Gazprom and is storing extra energy in Ukraine and Romania.
Moldova Shift Toward The West
Conveniently, the document was written in 2021, the same year that Moldova had a parliamentary election in July. President Maia Sandu’s PAS party, which is pro-West, won a majority of seats in the Moldovan Parliament. This directly followed President Maia Sandu’s election in 2020, who had to cohabitate with a pro-Russian parliamentary until the 2021 election. Since taking office, President Sandu has remained committed to her pro-west position and intends to help shift the nation closer to the European Union whether or not Vladimir Putin approves of this. It is clear that Moldova is moving out of Russia’s sphere of influence, and Russia is intent on stopping it.
Transnistria Dilemma
Last summer, Moldova was formally recognized as an EU candidate country alongside Ukraine, but Transnistria complicates the ability to actually complete accession as a member state. Besides this, there have been concerns that Transnistria can be used by Russia to attack Ukraine from the West. 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in the region, justifying the fears of potential Russian military action within the nation. Russia further complicates the situation by delivering half of all gas that the Moldovan government pays for to Transnistria.
While territorial integrity is not a requirement in order to become a European Union member state, it is an implied condition. Cyprus has struggled for decades with the occupation of Northern Cyprus by Turkey and the European Union has not been able to do much to resolve the issue. It is clear that Cyprus officially supports unification and for Greek and Turkish Cypriots to live peacefully together, yet this is easier said than done. It appears that the European Union would prefer to avoid a similar situation in other member states, which would be a problem for Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine must first end the war with Russia meanwhile Moldova must find a way to push the 1,500 Russian troops out of Transnistria. Until then, it is likely Ukraine and Moldova will be excluded from the European Union.
Russia’s Secret Document on Belarus
Similar to Moldova, another document was written up focusing on Belarus. The seventeen-page document is entitled “Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus”, similar to the Moldovan document title. The document for Belarus also detailed a Russian infiltration of Belarus politically and economically. The document is a plan divided into stages and by 2030, Russia plans to absorb Belarus.
While Western influences are much more visible in Moldova, it appears Russia wants to be more cautious with Belarus. In stark contrast to Moldova, Belarus is still run by a dictator with no ambitions to join the European Union. The West has been very supportive of President Lukashenko’s main political rival, Tsikhanouskaya yet she is exiled. Recently she was given a 15-year prison sentence to be served in a prison camp despite not being in the nation to participate in the trial. The European Union and the United States do not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate ruler of Belarus but this has not forced him out of office. The election also passed a constitutional amendment that grants President Lukashenko immunity from prosecution for any actions he took as president and allows him to serve as president for even longer. In addition, protests after the election last year did not result in Lukashenko stepping down from power. Similar to Moldova, Belarus also borders Ukraine. Russia may be concerned about what can potentially happen in Belarus if Ukraine ends up winning the war. While the protests were not successful last year after the election, Russia may be concerned about Ukraine causing a domino effect of nations distancing themselves from Russia.
If the invasion of Ukraine was not enough to convince people that Russia cannot be trusted, the two secret documents discuss the nation’s intent to control Moldova and Belarus. For those who described the situation in Ukraine as an attempt to reconstruct the Soviet Union, this description unfortunately now appears very appropriate. It is unclear how President Lukashenko feels about the possibility of Belarus being reabsorbed into Russia, yet Moldova clearly would resist such a scenario. Besides giving Lukashenko immunity, the constitutional amendment also gives Russia permanent permission to station troops and nuclear weapons in Belarus. Lukashenko may be only concerned with maintaining his power rather than his country’s independence. On the other hand, Moldova needs to be supported in its mission of independence from Russia’s sphere of influence, particularly since this is the desire of the majority of Moldovans. While the document may suggest political control and economic dependence as the primary goals of Russia for Moldova, this can easily change. Currently, it is impossible to trust what Russia says publicly.
