European Central: Sandu’s Narrow Victory And Moldova’s Tug-Of-War With Russia
On October 20, 2024, voters in Moldova chose a government in one of the most consequential elections in the country’s history. The election was pitched as a choice between the West and Russia, with incumbent President Maia Sandu representing the West, and former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo representing Russia. In the first round of the contest, Sandu won 42.5% of the vote to Stoianoglo’s 26%, necessitating a runoff. Voters returned to the polls on November 3 and returned Sandu to office with a comfortable 55% of the vote.
2024 Moldovan Presidential Election Results (Second Round)
On the same day as the first round of the presidential election, Moldovans voted on a referendum to decide whether the country should amend its constitution to formally reflect the will of its citizens in pursuing European Union membership. If passed, the referendum would entrench the irreversibility of the former Soviet republic’s ‘European course.’ The proposal was passed narrowly, with 50.35% of voters approving the amendment and 49.65% voting against it. The referendum result was seen as a victory for Sandu who campaigned on the ‘yes’ side. However, the outcome was far closer than the polls had predicted. The result showed a country largely split down the middle over its future direction, falling short of the strong endorsement of Western integration that Sandu and her supporters in the European Union and the United States had anticipated.
The election cycle was largely overshadowed by Russian interference (an accusation which Russia rejects). In an attempt to knock Moldova off its European course, Russia unleashed ‘what Moldovan and Western officials said was an aggressive effort to sway the outcome through a massive campaign of disinformation and a flood of illicit financing aimed at buying votes.’ These efforts were spearheaded by Ilan Shor, a fugitive Moldovan billionaire and convicted fraudster based in Moscow. Shor argued that the election represented ‘our last chance’ to keep Moldova in Russia’s sphere of influence. To try and ensure his desired outcome, Shor made cash transfers to anti-EU activists and voters. He also facilitated a social media campaign aimed at ‘stoking fear of war if the referendum passes’ and spread false claims that the European Union sought to ‘brainwash Moldovan children into becoming gay or transgender.’ On X (formally known as Twitter), the only major social media platform from which he has not been removed, Shor called on those ‘who care about Moldova and the future of your children’ to vote against Sandu and to say ‘say NO to criminal amendments of our constitution, NO to the EU and NO to war.’
Moreover, Moldova’s national security advisor, Stanislav Secrieru, claimed that Russia had organized buses and charter flights to bring voters to the polls. Of Moldova’s 3.7 million eligible voters, approximately 1.2 million are expats, most of whom favored Sandu. Ahead of the second round of voting, polling stations in countries with significant Moldovan diasporas, such as the United Kingdom and Germany, became the target of bomb threats.
In response to the close referendum result, Sandu criticized what she called ‘an unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy’ by nefarious foreign forces and criminals. However, Sandu and the current Moldovan government have also benefited politically from outside aid. Less than two weeks before the first round of the election, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, announced a $2 billion dollar economic support package for Moldova.
In the aftermath of the second round of the presidential election, Sandu struck a different tone at her victory speech. Speaking in Romanian, Moldova’s main language, she praised voters for giving ‘a lesson in democracy, worthy of being written in history books.’ Then, switching to Russian, she said: ‘I have heard your voice – both those who supported me and those who voted for Mr. Stoianoglo. In our choice for a dignified future, no-one lost…we need to stand united.’
Reaction from Western leaders to the presidential election and referendum results was overwhelmingly positive. Ursula von der Leyen stated on X that ‘it takes a rare kind of strength to overcome the challenges you’ve [Sandu] faced in this election. I’m glad to continue working with you towards a European future for Moldova and its people.’ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also congratulated Sandu on X, posting that she had ‘steered the Republic of Moldova safely through difficult times and set the country on a European course. We stand by Moldova’s side.’ French President Emmanuel Macron also celebrated the results in a statement: ‘democracy has triumphed against all the interference and all the manoeuvres. France will continue to stand beside Moldova on its European path.’
In response to the war in Ukraine, Moldova applied for and was granted candidate status in the EU by the European Commission in June 2022. However, Moldova’s accession to the European Union and the community of Western nations is still many years away. In the meantime, Moldova’s strategic location between Ukraine and Romania, a member of both the European Union and NATO, as well as its significant pro-Russia population, will likely turn the country into a geopolitical flashpoint, caught between Russian influence and Western aspirations. Moldova’s next great test will come next year in parliamentary elections which Russia watchers argue could be Moscow’s main target.