European Central: Italy’s Demographic Decline
fineasanton
Italy has seen a cumulative population loss of 1.36 million people since 2014, equivalent to the population size of Milan, the country’s second largest city. The country’s national statistics bureau, ISTAT, anticipated last year that Italy could lose 10% of its population in the next twenty-five years, with the population projected to decline to 54.4 million by 2050.
In 2023, births in Italy dropped to a record low, the fifteenth consecutive annual decline. Italy recorded just 379,000 births last year, a 3.6% drop from 2022 and a 34.2% drop from 2008 (the last year that Italy saw an increase in the number of new births). Italy’s fertility rate fell from 1.24 children per woman in 2022 to 1.20 in 2023 (far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a steady population). On the other side, approximately 661,000 deaths were recorded in 2023. While there were more than 280,000 more deaths than births, the country’s overall population declined by less than 10,000 people to just under 59 million due to the arrival of immigrants and returning Italian emigres. Foreigners consisted of 9% of the country’s population in 2023, for a total of about 5.3 million residents.
Adding to the demographic pressures is Italy’s rapidly ageing population, despite it being a positive development. ISTAT reported that the country’s average life expectancy increased to 83.1 years in 2023, up six months from the previous year. Approximately one in four residents were over the age of 65, with more people over the age of 80 than under the age of 10 for the first time ever. According to Italy’s National Institute of Health and Science on Ageing, this trend is largely due to effective social policies, including robust pensions and a universal healthcare system that ensures access to care, even for those who could not otherwise afford it.
Life Expectancy At Birth In Italy From 2010 To 2023, By Gender
If Italy is effectively supporting its elderly population, what then are the key factors driving its demographic decline? Most experts point to an underinvestment in the country’s young people. While young people in Italy still plan to have families and children, inadequate economic and social policies hinder these aspirations. Italy has one of the highest average ages for first-time parents in Europe due to difficulties in entering the workforce and securing stable employment, along with challenges in finding affordable housing. As a result, a growing number of young people are delaying or forgoing marriage and starting families altogether, with 61.2% continuing to live with their parents until the age of 35.
Those who do choose to start families and have children often struggle to balance family and work life in a country which lacks adequate economic security and support for young parents. Alessandro Rosina, professor of economics at the Università Cattolica di Milano, observed that ‘In Italy, the birth of a child is likely to represent a worsening of the parents’ economic conditions, as well as a complication of their life from an organisational perspective, more than in other countries.’ Moreover, according to Rosina, Italy’s limited assistance for young families conveys a discouraging message ‘that having a family doesn’t bring value to the community and it’s not worthy of support.’
All of these trends are expected to continue in the future. The risk for Italy is that its already fragile economy will continue shrinking, eventually leaving the country unable to afford its pension and welfare system.
Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, has made increasing the birth rate one of the top priorities of her government. After coming to power in 2022, Meloni’s right-wing governing coalition halved the value-added tax on diapers and baby formula, though it has since rolled back those tax cuts. Earlier this year, the government set aside €1 billion for measures designed to support young mothers, including temporarily covering pension contributions for working women with at least two young children. Additionally, Italy planned to use part of the €200 billion in EU funds it receives to construct childcare facilities for 260,000 children, but the government has now reduced that target to 160,000. Meloni has also been quick to dismiss what many consider the only viable solution, albeit a politically charged one, to reversing Italy’s demographic slide: increased immigration.
Ultimately, experts have warned that there is no easy remedy to Italy’s demographic situation. Francesco Billari of Milan’s Bocconi University has said that reversing the trend would ‘take time and stability of policies . . . which should not be seen as partisan.’ ‘It’s unlikely that a strong drive from a single government will radically change the way people see becoming a parent,’ he said. ‘We are talking of the most long-term decisions that humans can take.’ Yet, even if Italy can somehow become more family-friendly, there are still formidable obstacles to reversing its population decline. The country has just 11.4 million women of reproductive age, down from the 13.8 million women in that category twenty years ago. Due to its historically low birth rates, Italy lacks the necessary mothers and fathers to recover its population. ‘Even if there is a recovery in the number of children per couple, the potential couples is decreasing,’ said Billari.
An ageing population and low birth rates are not unique to Italy; they reflect a wider issue across Europe. The European Union’s median age has increased to 44.5 years, with the elderly now accounting for more than one-fifth of the bloc’s population. As the European Union’s oldest country, Italy serves as the proverbial canary in the coal mine. The challenges it is currently grappling with are likely to spread across Europe in the coming years. However, if Italy successfully tackles its demographic decline, its solutions could serve as a model for the rest of the continent.