European Central: An Election Looms As Germany’s Coalition Collapses
Sean Gallup/picture alliance
Germany’s coalition government collapsed on November 7, 2024, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner due to internal disagreements over the country’s economy.
Lindner’s removal prompted him to pull his Free Democratic Party (FDP) from the governing coalition that included Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens.
The collapse of Germany’s governing coalition has forced Scholz to call a vote of confidence in his minority government, which is set to take place in mid-December. If the government loses the confidence vote, a snap election will be held on February 23, 2025, a full seven months ahead of the originally scheduled date.
Snap elections are rare in Germany, a country known for its political stability in recent years. The last instance occurred in 2005 when Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, leading a coalition between the SPD and the Greens, called for a vote of confidence after his party’s damaging defeat in a state election in North Rhine-Westphalia. After losing the vote, Schröder’s government was ousted in the subsequent federal election by Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU. Merkel would go on to hold power for sixteen years, though she frequently formed coalition governments with the SPD.
After the 2021 federal election, the SPD emerged as the largest party and formed a ‘traffic light’ coalition with the Greens and the FDP. (The name ‘traffic light’ refers to the parties’ respective colors: red for the SPD, green for the Greens, and yellow for the FDP).
Forming and leading a governing coalition of three ideologically diverse parties was always going to be a daunting challenge for Chancellor Scholz. The alliance combined the FDP, a business-oriented advocating for free-market policies, with the SPD and the Greens, two left-of-center parties committed to increasing government spending on social welfare programs and environmental initiatives.
Tensions quickly arose within this uneasy coalition, as the stark ideological divides between the parties made it difficult to build consensus. The coalition’s situation was complicated by mounting pressures from both far-right and far-left movements. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), in particular, has made substantial gains at the local and state levels in recent years. In September, it became the largest party in the eastern state of Thuringia, marking the first time a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since 1945.
Ultimately, the SPD-led coalition unraveled after tensions over Germany’s budget policy and economic strategy came to a head in early November. Chancellor Scholz’s calls for increased state investment conflicted with Lindner and the FDP’s more cautious stance on government borrowing. Scholz accused Lindner of obstructing his government’s economic agenda, stating: ‘Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposals.’ In response, Lindner claimed that Scholz had urged him to suspend the ‘debt brake,’ a constitutional provision that limits government borrowing to prevent excessive debt – something Lindner was unwilling to do. The exchange between the two leaders became unusually acrimonious, with Scholz telling reporters that Lindner’s ‘egoism is totally incomprehensible.’ The collapse of the coalition complicates the ongoing challenge of closing a multi-billion-euro shortfall in next year’s budget, a task now made even more difficult with Finance Minister Lindner and the FDP out of the picture.
Between now and the end of February, the SPD and the Greens will continue as the governing parties, but they will need to secure support from opposition parties to pass legislation. On key issues such as backing Ukraine, bolstering the armed forces, and tackling illegal immigration, there is a broad consensus between the governing parties and the opposition. Therefore, German policy on these vital matters is ‘likely to remain the same’ during this turbulent period.
Looking ahead to the federal election, the winner seems preordained. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its conservative Bavarian partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are currently leading in the polls with 32% support. This commanding position makes it increasingly likely that they will lead the next government, with Friedrich Merz as chancellor. In contrast, Olaf Scholz’s SPD is polling in third place at 16%, narrowly trailing the AfD. After the election, the ‘formation of a new coalition government could take weeks or months.’ The CDU/CSU has firmly stated that it will not enter into a coalition with the AfD, making an alliance with the SPD a likely scenario. Given the current polling trends and the increasingly fragmented political landscape, driven by the rise of new and more extreme parties, ‘the next government may also be a three-party coalition involving the Greens or the FDP, though the FDP is now only polling at 4 percent – below the threshold needed to make it into parliament.’
This political vacuum in Germany could not have emerged at a more critical time. The reelection of President Donald Trump in the U.S. has generated significant angst and uncertainty across Europe, particularly on matters of defense and trade. At the same time, Russia’s relentless invasion of Ukraine demands decisive and steady leadership from Europe’s dominant powers – leadership that, at present, Germany is unable to provide.