The Commons: Labor's Back to Back By-Election Victories

Joe Giddens l PA

On initial viewing, the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections may seem like just another contest that may or may not have a bearing on the general election, but these by-elections have much broader ramifications for both parties.

Historically, Wellingborough and Kingswood have been regarded as Conservative strongholds. In 2019, the Conservatives won the two areas with majorities of 18,540 and 11,220 respectively. The seats are a major representation of the Conservative core base – ‘Middle England’ voters who were economically and socially conservative and who generally do not believe in radical change.

Winning over these voters has traditionally been difficult for Labor, and their success with this normally correlates to their success in the general election. On February 15th, Labor won the Kingswood seat by a majority of 2,501 and Wellingborough by a majority of 6,436.

Their victory in these seats could be a major indication that ‘Middle England’ finally trusts Labor to govern the country after 14 years in opposition. Labor is heading into an election year with electoral momentum on its side, but there are some important factors that could dwell this heightened confidence.

Turnout in both by-elections was extremely low, as “37% of voters turned out in Kingswood, and 38% in Wellingborough”. Labor may have won both of these races, but the low turnout generally represents dissatisfaction from voters with the choices that they are given.

The UK operates in a First-Past-The-Post electoral system, and this heavily favors the 2 main parties – Labor and Conservative. The other political parties are highly unlikely to win a majority and the public knows this, which therefore creates the possible scenario of voters deciding to stay home and not cast a ballot if they do not resonate with either of the main parties.

Turnout in general elections is normally seen as an important indicator of success for the Labor party, as a high turnout generally correlates with those in a younger age bracket coming out to vote, and this social group mostly votes for Labor. By contrast, a lower turnout is usually a positive result for the Conservatives as the older demographics more consistently show up for the polls.

By-elections normally occur when an MP resigns from their current post and is generally seen to be a litmus test for any Prime Minister during their reign. Since the 2019 general election, there have been 21 by-elections – the Conservatives have won 4.

This rounds up to a 19% success rate in by-elections over the last 5 years, and for a party that has been in power for nearly 15 years, this would normally be seen as a worrying trend. But of course, by-elections do not necessarily foreshadow the result of the general election.

By-elections are generally swung in the favor of the challenging party in the seat as a result of the general circumstances around the triggering of the by-election.

When MPs do resign from their seat to trigger a by-election, it normally arises from a scandal or an unprofessional action. For example, former Conservative MP Owen Patterson resigned after he was found to have lobbied for Lynn’s Country Food and Randox in return for £100,000. He also “failed to declare his interest in some meetings”.

This culminated in a resignation from Mr. Patterson and sparked fury from his constituents. The scandal helped Labor win the seat of North Shropshire as the outrage led to demands for a change in leadership which is the consensus feeling in most by-elections and why the party in power rarely wins these contests.

The Conservatives do have a low winning percentage in by-elections since Boris Johnson won in 2019, and their losses alongside the public feeling could be seen as cause for concern for the party.

On the Labor side, winning 2 by-elections in a single day gives them real momentum heading into an election year. After the results had come out, Labor leader Keir Starmer expressed his delight but also warned that the party has “more work to do”.

By-Election Results Since The 2019 General Election

Labor is currently leading the Conservatives in the general election polls by a massive margin but Keir Starmer’s latest comments after the by-election victories explain the general feeling over by-elections.

The heightened caution shown by the Opposition leader reflects the previous points that have been made. Winning by-elections does represent a party going in the right direction, but it does not show how those same constituents will vote in the general election.

Labor has won 12 out of the 21 by-elections in the same period that the Conservatives have won 4 out of 21, a 57.1% success rate, and the added momentum from these victories is a massive bonus for the party, especially given the media backlash they received for backtracking on their Green policy investment.

The history of Wellingborough has shown that it has been a swing seat for over half a century. The Conservatives held the seat from 2010 to 2024 but before then, there were constant changes and flips between the parties in this seat.

As well as Wellingborough, Kingswood has also been a swing state and the seat has been filled by three Labor MPs and three Conservative MPs since its inception as a parliamentary constituency in 1974.

By-elections may not be the greatest representation of the result of a general election, but the consistent pattern of Conservative losses and Labor gains since 2019 alongside these latest results in Wellingborough and Kingswood could mean that the impact of these by-elections may have to be taken seriously.