The Commons: The Battle For The Falklands
Historic Uk
The Falkland Islands have long been an area of dispute between the United Kingdom and Argentina, but tensions have heated up again recently after Argentina’s newly elected President, Javier Milei, called for the Falkland Islands to be returned to Argentina.
Since 1690, when English captain John Strong named the strait between the islands ‘Falkland’, the U.K. has been interested in the islands and has essentially administered over the islands since 1833.
The Argentinian claim to sovereignty rests on the belief that after their independence, the islands were conveyed to their control from Spain. Spain controlled the Falklands for many years in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, which the British didn’t contest, which is why Argentina believes they are the rightful owners of the territory.
This all came to a head in the 1980s when Leopoldo Galtieri, Argentina’s Lieutenant General and leader, invaded the Falklands. The infamous Falklands War followed with the U.K. winning two months later.
There was even a referendum in 2013 that asked the Falklands people if they wanted to stay British and the result ended in a resounding 99.8% Yes vote with only three people on the islands voting No.
Ever since the conclusion of the war, the U.K. has remained in control over the territory without any major disputes, but tensions over the island are emerging as both Argentina and the U.K. are possibly having new leaders in 2024.
After his election victory in November 2023, Javier Milei declared his desire to regain control over the Falkland Islands and stated that Argentina had “non-negotiable” sovereignty over the Falkland Islands. He has vowed to win back the islands from the U.K. through “diplomatic channels”.
Despite the big statements by Milei, it was generally believed that it would be a very tall order for Buenos Aires to make this happen. However, in January 2024, Milei revealed he had “begun discussions with the U.K. about the Falkland Islands”.
The nature of these discussions was quickly cleared up by the Foreign Office and Foreign Secretary David Cameron has even visited the Falkland Islands in recent weeks in order to “reiterate the U.K.’s commitment to uphold the Islanders’ right of self-determination”.
Despite the Conservative government providing a strong and unwavering response over the potential of relinquishing the sovereignty of the Falklands, the impending election in the U.K. means that there could be a quick and different approach to the Falkland Islands.
There hasn’t been a Labor government for nearly 15 years, meaning their last active policy towards the Falklands is outdated. However, the last Labor prime minister, Gordon Brown, stated that the U.K. “will never discuss the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands”.
Previous Shadow Foreign Office Minister for the Falklands, Stephen Doughty, said in 2020 that the newly-elected Keir Starmer “were fully supportive of the Falklands” and respected the island’s right to self-determination.
The Opposition Leader has shown on numerous occasions that he is willing to alter some of his promises in order to win pragmatic victories, but these current approaches by both Labor and Conservative figures are very important for understanding the U.K government’s stance over the Falkland Islands.
There is clearly bipartisan solidarity between Labor and Conservative members over the Falklands, but could the added pressure from Buenos Aires alongside the U.K.’s economic woes force their stance to change?
Heading into an election year, a loss in negotiations over the Falkland Islands could represent a fatal blow for the Conservative government. Being able to drum up the patriotic sentiment could be a good tool for Rishi Sunak to use at the polls but by losing control over the Falklands, this tool would disappear.
The Falklands have played a key role in U.K. general elections before. In 1983, Margaret Thatcher was struggling heavily in the polls; her economic policies were not received well, and division was rife in the Conservative Party. However, the subsequent Falklands victory created a proud feeling throughout the country and allowed her to ride that momentum to win a 144-seat majority in the 1983 election.
As mentioned before, the impending election could also impact the latest dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom differently. With the election less than 12 months away, the stance of the U.K. might be altered if their current policy is not viewed favorably in the electorate.
Currently, the Foreign Office is standing strong by its initial statement that the sovereignty over the Falkland Islands is not up for debate. Despite this, the issue of rightful ownership of the Falklands has still stirred issues between countries around the globe, and this potential added pressure could force the U.K. to come to the table with Buenos Aires.
Although there has been cross-party agreement in the past over keeping the U.K.’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, a Labor government headed by Keir Starmer might change this. As shown before, Starmer has expressed support for the current government's stance over the Falklands, but this doesn’t paint the full picture.
Before becoming Labor leader, Starmer was a barrister. The Labor leader has no previous ministerial experience, but his former role as a lawyer could play a part in his foreign policy. The emphasis on following the letter of the law could be replicated in the Falklands debate over the argument of which country has the legal right to control.
In response to the Iraq War, Starmer believed that it was an illegal war, and his justification was “the passage of a law” that restricted the role of the British government to attribute forces without support.
This isn’t clear evidence of what his foreign policy would be if he was elected, but it is an indication of his emphasis on the legality of foreign policy issues. This could help Argentina, who reiterate that the Falklands legally belong to them. If they are able to prove this argument legally, the dispute over the Falklands may complexify.