European Central: Status Of Ukrainian Refugees In Europe
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In the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, millions of Ukrainian civilians were compelled to flee their country. Many sought safe harbor in the European Union, especially within member states that bordered Ukraine. In order to hasten the evacuation and reception process, the EU issued for the first time the Temporary Protection Directive, an EU emergency scheme designed to provide ‘immediate and collective protection’ to displaced individuals as a result of a mass refugee influx. Rights granted to Ukrainian refugees under the temporary protection directive include a residence permit, access to employment and housing, medical care, and access to education for children. This measure ensured that as Ukrainian civilians arrived at EU borders, they were accepted ‘with a speed – and generosity – that was a sharp contrast to other recent influxes.’
As of July 2024, approximately 6.168 million Ukrainian refugees were officially registered across Europe, the largest population displacement on the continent since World War II. Of that number, more than four million reside in the EU with temporary protection status. Of the more than six million refugees, two million are currently living in eleven countries that either share a border with Ukraine or are located in nearby Eastern Europe (Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, and Slovakia.) Another 2.5 million refugees are spread across Western Europe, with notable discrepancies between countries. For example, Germany alone is home to nearly 1.2 million refugees. Moreover, Spain, despite being further from Ukraine than France, is home to three times as many Ukrainian refugees.
Nearly 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees, as of December 31, 2023, reside in the Russian Federation. Numerous European and world governments, along with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), have expressed grave concerns ‘regarding their legal status, rights, and access to services within the country [Russia].’
Surveys of displaced Ukrainians, both within the country and abroad, conducted by the UNHCR in 2024 found that ‘65% of refugees and 72% of internally displaced persons expressed a desire to return home one day.’ However, security uncertainties surrounding the ongoing conflict, as well as other concerns related to deficiencies in employment and housing opportunities, have prevented many displaced Ukrainians from returning to their country. Some 55% of ‘refugee returnees interviewed in Ukraine’ claimed that there were fewer jobs available in their home country than they had anticipated.
Looking beyond these concerns, analysts argue that it is crucial for Ukraine’s future that as many refugees as possible return to the country at some point. Failure to do so could result in significant economic and demographic losses for the country. The total population of Ukraine in 2023 was under 37 million people, ‘a 7.45% decline from the previous year, and, with so many young people abroad, the age profile is increasing.’ At the onset of Russia’s invasion, most men between the ages of 18 and 60 were barred from leaving the country, ‘and Kyiv is [now] looking for ways to encourage the return of those who were abroad already or managed to leave to boost its military and economy.’ In 2024, Ukraine passed legislation that banned ‘exiled males of military age – there are an estimated 200,000 in Poland alone – [from being able to] renew passports in [foreign] consulates.’ President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also approved legislation ‘making citizens living abroad liable for military service.’
Yet, it may end up being pressures from within the European Union which force many Ukrainian refugees to return to their native country. Hungary, a longtime thorn in the side of Brussels, passed a controversial decree last year ‘in breach of EU law that cancels state funded shelter for refugees from western Ukraine, leaving many homeless.’ The decree, which went into effect in August, limited ‘access to state-funded housing to Ukrainian refugees whose registered residence is in what the Hungarian authorities deem a war-torn area, effectively deeming other parts of Ukraine safe to return to.’ An attachment to the decree listed ‘13 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine designated by the Hungarian government as war-torn areas, excluding those in western Ukraine.’ Approximately three thousand Ukrainian refugees, most of them women and children, were impacted by the decree, according to the Hungarian Helsinki Committee. These refugees faced ‘homelessness and the inability to access social services in Hungary, including health care and education, which require having a registered address in Hungary.’
‘The Hungarian government has stooped to a new low with this cruel law that is putting thousands of people who fled the war in Ukraine on the streets,’ commented Lydia Gall, a senior Europe and Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch. ‘The European Commission should use all instruments at its disposal to make Budapest scrap the law and fulfill its duties as an EU member state,’ she continued.
Ultimately, whether Ukrainian refugees return to their home country depends on the course of the war. According to a study from the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the ‘liberation of their home district significantly increases the likelihood of an individual returning home, while more intense conflict in the home municipality makes refugees more likely to plan to settle outside Ukraine.’ Therefore, success on the battlefield and the liberation of additional territory from Russian forces will ensure that more refugees feel secure enough to return, helping to address some of Ukraine’s pressing challenges and rebuild their country. However, the ongoing war and resulting instability is unlikely to come to a complete end anytime soon, thus impeding a full-scale return and reintegration of Ukrainian refugees.