European Central: Political Chaos Grips France As Government Collapses

ALAIN JOCARD

After the right-wing National Rally made significant gains in the June 2024 European Parliament elections in France, President Emmanuel Macron called a snap legislative election scheduled for June 30. The National Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral French Parliament, was dissolved on June 9, and the political parties began the arduous three-week campaign.

In the first round of the election, candidates from the National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, secured 33.21% of the vote. Candidates from the New Popular Front, an alliance of leftist parties, received 28.21% of the vote. Meanwhile, the liberal, pro-Macron Ensemble alliance, led by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, won 21.28% of the vote.

Ahead of the critical second round of the vote, scheduled for July 7, the so-called ‘Republican Front,’ an old French political strategy in which candidates from the left and center would step aside in key races to reduce the right’s chances of securing a parliamentary majority, was revived. In the second round, the National Rally secured 37.06% and 142 seats. The New Popular Front received 25.8% and Ensemble earned 24.53% of the vote. However, due to tactical voting between the left and center, the New Popular Front won 180 seats and Ensemble won 159 seats, locking the National Rally out of power.

What followed was two months of political wrangling and negotiations. Finally, on September 5, Michel Barnier, a veteran conservative politician who gained international recognition as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, was appointed prime minister, leading a shaky and ideologically fractured coalition government. Barnier’s appointment particularly angered the leftist politicians from the New Popular Front, who believed that as the largest bloc in the National Assembly, they were entitled to lead the government.  

Barnier had hoped the placate his critics on the far-right by echoing their rhetoric on immigration, crime and national security matters, while seeking broad, cross-parliamentary consensus on crucial issues such as the cost of living. Barnier’s hopes, however, were dashed as his short-lived government was beset by crises and motions of no confidence.

Eventually, on December 4, leftist politicians in the National Assembly brought forward a no-confidence motion in Barnier and his government ‘amid a standoff over a draft austerity budget that had sought to save €60 [billion] through spending cuts and tax rises in hopes of reducing the gaping deficit.’ Barnier had opted to ‘use a constitutional measure known as article 49.3 to pass a social security financial bill. The constitutional measure allows a government to pass legislation without parliament’s approval but also gives MPs the chance to challenge that decision by presenting a no-confidence motion.’ The leftists garnered support from the National Rally, winning 331 members in the 577-member National Assembly to their side, enough to oust Barnier and his government. Barnier was succeeded as prime minister by Francois Bayrou, a liberal and close ally of Macron, on December 13. Barnier’s tenure was the shortest of any prime minister during the Fifth Republic. His ousting also marked the first successful no-confidence vote since the defeat of Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962, when Charles de Gaulle was serving as president.

In the aftermath of the no-confidence motion, Emmanuel Macron faced calls to resign the presidency, with many placing the blame for France’s months-long political crisis squarely on him. While Marine Le Pen, the controversial former president of the National Rally, who now leads the party in the National Assembly, did not participate in calls for Macron to go, she nevertheless remarked that ‘if we do not respect the voice of voters and show respect for political forces and respect for elections,’ then pressure on Macron will ‘obviously be stronger and stronger.’

Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation on Thursday, December 5 from his official residence at the Elysée Palace in Paris. Macron thanked Barnier for his ‘dedication’ and accused the leftists and far-right of instigating ‘chaos,’ claiming that they ‘don't want to build, they want to dismantle.’

Although a new prime minister is in place, there is unlikely to be a resolution to France’s political crisis anytime soon. This mainly stems from the fact that none of the three political blocs in the National Assembly have a majority, ‘nor do any of them want to negotiate or compromise with one another.’ France’s electoral system, according to Ipsos pollster and Sciences Po lecturer Mathieu Gallard, provides few incentives for this dynamic to change, even if ‘Macron calls a fresh national vote in 10 months, which is as soon as the constitution allows after the last election.’ ‘Before the election of Emmanuel Macron, we had two blocks opposing in French politics, the left and the right, and it was quite simple,’ said Gallard. ‘Now we have three blocks, a left-wing block, a center-right block and a radical right block, and it makes the situation way more complicated.’

The political instability afflicting France, where public-sector unions have gone on strike in opposition to the austerity measures in Barnier’s draft budget, could have wide-ranging consequences for Europe more broadly. The downfall of Barnier’s government in France coincided with the collapse of Germany’s coalition government. With a war raging in Eastern Europe, caretaker governments now control two of the European Union’s strongest economies and most powerful militaries.

‘For the EU today, the No. 1 urgency is the Ukraine war,’ said Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, acting president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. However, an ongoing debate, often referred to as the ‘guns versus butter’ battle, has unfolded in many European countries. This debate contrasts the need for greater defense spending with the growing domestic demands, all amid the current cost of living crisis. It is this debate which has played a key role in toppling both the French and German governments during budget negotiations.

‘At the end of the day, the EU is not united on Ukraine, and it's always European fragmentations that fuels European weaknesses,’ said de Hoop Scheffer. ‘The crisis of French-German leadership — that truly doesn't help.’

With France now gripped by political uncertainty and economic challenges, the ‘new year may herald a new era for both [France and] the European Union.’