The Commons: British Voting Intention Since The Election – Why Aren’t The Left Doing Better?
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The UK Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer has not had the best start as Prime Minister. There has been mounting criticism of his policies from both sides of the political spectrum, from the means testing of winter fuel payments for pensioners, to the decision to raise employer’s national insurance contributions. Fieldwork carried out by More In Common shows that 72% of the public think the UK is getting worse while only 8% think things are getting better. Voting intention polls have reflected this dissatisfaction, with Labour and Reform topping the polls at around 25% each and the Tories only a few points behind.
In the wake of growing dissatisfaction with Starmer’s policy choices, some of Labour’s 2024 vote share appears to be migrating toward the right-wing party ReformUK. Yet, despite much of the government’s criticism coming from left-leaning commentators, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party have not experienced the same surge in support. The polling company YouGov shows the Liberal Democrats at 14% and the Green Party at 9%. Both are only 1-2 points higher than their result in the 2024 general election. Meanwhile Reform have jumped from 15% to 25%. Reform is doing very well at vacuuming up disaffected voters from both the major political parties, but despite much of the criticism of the government coming from the left, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are not seeing a similar wave of support in the polls.
UK Voting Intentions since the 2024 general election
Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership began under a cloud of controversy. Among the early policy decisions, the means testing of winter fuel payments drew significant attention. The rationale for the policy was to direct economic help more precisely to those most in need; however, critics argue that it undermines the longstanding principle of universal support for pensioners. This move combined with the decision to raise employer national insurance contributions – a measure intended to bolster public finances – has sparked major discontent among traditional Labour supporters and business groups.
Recent opinion polls reveal political realignment within the electorate. While Labour base support has traditionally been among working-class and progressive voters, current data shows that many in this group are disillusioned with Starmer’s leadership. As many as 40% of 2024 Labour voters say they would not vote for the party or were now undecided. According to the latest figures, Reform has managed to successfully attract voters who are disenchanted with both the mainstream left and right, offering what many perceive as an alternative to the status quo.
Reform’s main appeal lies in its populist messaging and its ability to tap into a sense of national decline, a narrative that resonates with voters frustrated by overly complex or detached political rhetoric. Their straightforward approach contrasts sharply with the intricate policy platforms of established parties. While Labour continues to grapple with internal divisions and the challenge of maintaining its traditional voter base, Reform is benefiting from a clear, consistent messaging on issues such as the cost of living crisis and immigration that seems to cut through the confusion of partisan debate.
The Greens and Liberal Democrats are broadly left-of-center to left-wing, but despite significant criticism of Starmer’s administration coming from the left, these parties have not done as well in the polls as one might expect. The public view these parties positively, as a YouGov poll found, they are the parties the public find to be the most likeable, trustworthy, and which have a clear sense of purpose. But simultaneously, they are seen as idealistic and their policies unworkable. Some of their policies may be popular, ranging from ambitious environmental reforms to extensive civil liberties measures and voting reform. But, in a climate where voters are increasingly concerned with immediate economic challenges, these platforms may seem out of touch with the urgent needs of the electorate.
Reform has also effectively utilized media channels to spread its populist message. The party’s communication strategy emphasizes simplicity and directness, characteristics that are highly attractive in a period of political complexity. While the left-wing parties continue to engage in nuanced debates over policy specifics, Reform’s broad strokes and punchy rhetoric capture headlines and public attention more readily, especially concerning more polarizing topics such as immigration and asylum.
The current political environment has seen traditional allegiances begin to shift. Voters who were once staunch Labour voters and may consider themselves left-wing are now more open to alternatives that promise radical change, particularly if they feel that the established parties are failing to address their concerns. Reform has quickly capitalized on this group’s desire for a break from traditional party politics whereas the Greens and Lib Dems, with their longer-standing policy frameworks, may be perceived as part of the existing political order rather than a fresh alternative.
The ramifications of these shifting allegiances are significant, particularly as the UK approaches local elections in May that could reflect broader changes on the national level. Local elections often provide early indicators of public sentiment and can serve as a testing ground for national policies. If Reform continue to pull voters away from Labour and other traditional parties, the outcomes of these elections could foreshadow a major realignment on the parliamentary level in the years to come.
In this climate of uncertainty, the future of the hangs in the balance. The challenge for all parties will be to articulate and implement policies that not only address the immediate concerns of the electorate but also lay the groundwork for long-term stability. Only time will tell if the populist surge represented by Reform’s polling numbers is a temporary reaction to current frustrations or the start of a fundamental shift in British politics.
