Latin Analysis: The Return of Evo Morales

Claudio Santisteban

One of the most polemic elections held in 2020 in the South America region has been that of Bolivia. The past 18TH of October, only a year after the coup d’état which forced former president – Evo Morales – to flee the country, Bolivians elected a new head of state.

Even when the South American nation had faced severe social and economic instability due to Morales’s constant reelection such that citizens forced him to resign his position, the result of the elections has shocked the international community.

MAS Party Back to Power

To media and experts worldwide, it was rather surprising that the elections were yet again won by Evo Morales’s political party: Socialist Movement (MAS). Henceforth, Luis Arce, the winning candidate who is considered to be Morales’s “political heir” will become the president in the following weeks.

Naturally, right-wing political parties and associations hurried to call the elections “fraudulent” given that, on past occasions, Evo Morales had been accused of altering the actual results such that he could hold on to power for almost one and a half-decade. Thus, since the results of the elections were announced, there have been numerous protests throughout the country. Earlier this week, there was even an attempt to harm the elected president with low-impact bombs; however, Arce was able to come out unscathed from the incident.

Since the presidential campaigns, MAS’s candidate had established that he was “not Morales” such that he could regain the trust of left-wing voters. Given that the opposition’s main argument was that, if Arce was elected he would only be a means for Morales to keep indirectly ruling the country, the candidate remarked on multiple occasions that he was going to be the only one taking the political, social, and economic decisions over the country if he was elected. Nevertheless, he also repeatedly mentioned that he would gladly accept Morales’s advice and support if he wished to give it. Also, Arce had previously avoided answering media’s questions regarding a possible annulment of judicial accusations against Morales, however, he had publicly mentioned that it was Morales’s coming back to the country was dependent only on the former president’s decision. In other words, he was not opposed to his coming back when he decided to and was open to him advising his administration and being politically involved in the new government.

Yet, following Morales’s rapid reaction to MAS’s victory on the election and his visits to numerous Latin American left-wing heads of state, caused the international media to forecast that he would be back to Bolivia shortly. Nevertheless, before doing so, he needed to figure out a way to avoid being captured by the current national authorities, as he would be forced to go to trial due to several accusations he had pending with the Bolivian judicial system.

 Evo’s Crimes

Some of the charges that Evo Morales needed to face if he came back to Bolivia included terrorism, genocide, corruption. The government of the current interim president – Jeanine Áñez – even denounced him for crimes against humanity at the International Court of Justice in The Hauge. Mainly, it has been established that the former Bolivian president arranged, financed, and planned several violent attacks against politicians, journalists, and academics who opposed his methods and politics. Additionally, he has been accused of manipulating past elections so that he could illegitimately remain in power for over 14 years. 

Moreover, he has also been accused of being financed by, and therefore strongly supporting, drug dealers in Bolivia. Indeed, experts have declared that he closely worked with cocaine-producing groups such that they have supported him in the silencing of his political enemies. In exchange, it is said that Morales provided them with political support to carry their dealings within the country.

Evo Morales has been accused of these and many other criminal acts. Unsurprisingly, he rejects all accusations and justifies the lack of transparency and accountability during his administration as a way in which he protects “true” democracy and avoids the opposition to spoil his plans for the development of Bolivia.

Nevertheless, many experts had forecasted that if MAS won the presidential elections – which in fact, it did – it would be most likely that the new government would annul the criminal accusations against the former president. Furthermore, it has been said by MAS politicians – including future president Luis Arce – that all the accusations made against Morales were false, such that there had not been any proof that could demonstrate that the former president had actually carried any criminal acts.

Consequently, the fact that only last week the Bolivian judicial system revoked all the accusations made against Morales, came as no surprise. Indeed, the main argument for this was that there were not enough proofs to prosecute Morales, as well as that the former president had not been requested to court in line with the legal requirements. Hence, all charges were dropped. This phenomenon has led political analysts to forecast that the return of Morales to Bolivia is imminent, as well as there is a certainty that he will not be content with having a secondary role in the new government and will endeavor to be a key decision-maker.

The Future of the White Gold

Given that Bolivia possesses more than 40% of the world’s reserves of lithium, otherwise known as “white gold”, this has always been a matter of political concern and the main element to be considered on campaigns. Hence, like many politicians before him, Luis Arce promised to make new joint agreements with multinational companies and the governments of other states such that there could be proper exploitation of the natural resource, and consequently, this could boost Bolivia’s economic development. He promised, however, that said agreements would not be held with governments or firms that would try to privatize the lithium and “take advantage of Bolivia”. 

This strategy shows evident parallelism with Morales’s previous approach to the management of lithium, given that he had refused to make any agreements with right-wing governments (particularly the US) or “neoliberal companies”. Henceforth, he had previously negotiated with the government of China and Germany, as these intended to create a “mixed capital” that would allow the exploitation of the resource through the use of new technology, as well as this would result in significant Foreign Direct Investment.

Nonetheless, due to the 2019 social instability, said agreement was not concluded and Bolivia’s white gold is yet to be used to foster the economic growth and employment which politicians have previously promised. As a consequence of this, investors worldwide are expectant on which strategy Luis Arce will follow when he becomes president in the near future. Still, considering Arce’s statements during his campaign surrounding the management of lithium and his openness to be mentored by Evo Morales, it is expected that he will continue with the former president’s approach.

As of today, it is unclear if Evo Morales will return to Bolivia sooner or later and under which circumstances, as he is still accused of crimes against humanity in the International Court of Justice. However, as many academics have already established, Luis Arce is standing in a complicated position. This is the case as not only is he becoming head of state in the midst of a sanitary and economic crisis due to the coronavirus outbreak, but because how he manages the involvement of Morales on his administration will certainly have an impact on his approval ratings. Despite him winning the popular vote, Bolivian political analysts have warned that he must not take its approval rating and current social stability for granted, as it is very likely that if the people perceive his administration to be indeed continuity of Morales’s ruling, it is likely that he could face social unrest similar to that in 2019.

It is only true, then, that Morales’s return to Bolivia will have a significant impact within the country and the continent itself, and thus, the economic and political future of the continent is to be determined within the following months.