Latin Analysis: Why is Taiwan Suffering a Latin American Crisis?
holgs
The China – Taiwan conflict is not new. Since the Chiang Kai-shek’s retreat to Formosa and the partition of China between communist and non-communist worlds, the People’s Republic of China has claimed Taiwan as part of its territory, whereas Taiwan has been fighting for economic, social, and political independence as a sovereign state.
This has been an ever-changing situation, as in 1955, only 23 countries in the world (mostly located in Latin America) maintained diplomatic relations with China and the rest recognized Taiwan as a separate state and supported the island to have an independent seat in the international organizations and transnational forums.
Today the situation has dramatically changed. Given that it is now China the one which has the most international recognition and a stronger voice in worldwide institutions. As of 2008, only 23 countries around the globe recognize Taiwan as a separate state; this includes Paraguay, Guatemala, Haiti, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Belize in the Latin America and the Caribbean region, which both Taiwan and China have been disputing amongst one another to gain greater political influence in.
Certainly, the overarching growth of China during the last years has had much weight in countries leaning towards its recognition as “one China” and turn its back on Taiwan. However, multiple other factors have also impacted Latin Americans’ decisions on this conflict.
The Chinese Diplomatic Strategy
To gain more diplomatic influence in the Latin American nations, the Communist Party of China (CPC) made it a salient part of its diplomatic strategy to get involved in Latin American congresses and parliaments, as well as in Latin American transnational organizations as San Pablo Forum, International Socialist Latin American and Caribbean Committee, the Permanent Conference for Political parties in Latin America, amongst others. Additionally, the Chinese government has been trying during the last few years to join the Interamerican Development bank, which is the main multilateral finance organization for the countries of the region, to which the USA and Central American (supporters of Taiwan, mainly) have strongly opposed to the initiative. Nevertheless, China has kept persisting on the matter to-date. This has been particularly relevant within the last 5 years, as many Latin American nations have been inclining increasingly towards leftist political parties, with which then the CPC associates with.
Additionally, in several other multilateral institutions, the Chinese government has maintained a strong discourse on “south-south” cooperation, in which it proclaims itself as a representative of developing nations. Also, China continuously remarks that as non-developed nations in disadvantage when it comes to making negotiations with “giant” nations (as the US and European nations), Latin America and China ought to remember their similar situations to support one another. Progressively, Latino nations have embraced this viewpoint, and thus, have turned their backs on Taiwan to strengthen their relations with China to pursue the south-south development path. This has been the case, particularly in nations such as Chile and Costa Rica, as the latter became the first Central American country to initiate diplomatic relations with Beijing.
Economies at war: China vs Taiwan
It is recognized that both China and Taiwan have a great abundance of financial, natural, and economic resources, which make very convenient trade partners for the Latin Americans, and which constitutes yet another factor why certain states decide to establish economic and diplomatic relations with each. Truth is, the fact that China is one of the biggest economies in the world is a decisive factor in why Taiwan has become less recognized by Latino nations.
At the start of the last decade, China stated exporting raw materials and finished goods at prices that were convenient for most of the trading partners – especially those Latin non-developed nations with strict budgets – due to the extraordinarily cheap cost of its workforce. Taiwan, unable to compete with this fact, lost several of its Latin allies at the time, as China became the ultimate trading partner and acquired a central role within the World Trade Organization. Moreover, given that an overwhelming number of Latinos started making important trading deals with the giant of Asia, several economists and organizations as the OECD, claim that these transactions have significantly boosted the economic and social development of the Latino region in the last years, which further damaged the situation of Taiwan with the nations of the region.
To try to improve its condition, Taiwan has been trying to use the “dollar diplomacy” strategy, which consists of granting “financial aid” to its remaining allies (mainly, Central American nations). One of the most relevant dealings made under this strategy was proving Guatemala with considerable amounts of money to build a new airport; scholars suggest that this was made in order to avoid a (what seemed at the time as) an inevitable turning of Guatemala to support China and cutting its relations with Taiwan as a consequence.
It can be stated then that, even though China and Taiwan have been using their economies to get the support of the Latin American continent, but that, however, given the size and massive financial and political growth of China, Taiwan has been continuously losing its recognition on the continent.
The International Concern
As the years go by and China keeps increasing its worldwide relevance, it becomes less likely that Taiwan will recover its recognition as a sovereign state amongst the international community. However, this situation does not only daunt Taiwan, but the fact that China is gaining influence in the region strongly preoccupies the US, as it could lose its leadership within the South America region, as well as it exacerbates the American-Chinese rivalry; especially as giants as Brazil and Chile are becoming strong Chinese allies and are further fortifying their commercial and political relations with one another. Overall, if more Latin American countries keep siding with China instead of Taiwan, it is expected that China could start creating initiatives similar to the Belt and Road initiative it carries in African countries to further enhance its influence on the Latin America region.
Moreover, Latino investors and business owners have parallelly voiced their concerns with the switching sides from the governments from supporting Taiwan to becoming Chinese partners, as this has significantly (and abruptly) increased the number of Chinese goods being traded in these countries – even though countries as Mexico have introduced stringent anti-dumping regulations to avoid unfair competition amongst Chinese and national products – as well as they feel threatened due to the vas increase of Chinese companies in the national markets.
All in all, Taiwan still retains the recognition of some of the Latin American countries, as well as maintains having a seat in independent United Nations agencies such as the World Health Organization. However, as it keeps losing Latin American support, it is not likely that Taiwan will be able to slow down the rapid loss of its remaining power and recognition as a nation separate from the People’s Republic of China. If there should be a hope for the nation to try to reverse its deplorable situation, experts suggest that it should do a dramatic (and rapid) transformation of strategy; otherwise, it might seem that its future could be set in stone in a new world order with rising south led by China.
