Latin Analysis: AMLO and Biden Have Their Work Cut out for Them

Marco Ugarte / AP file

A new U.S. executive administration has the potential to greatly alter the geopolitical dynamics of Latin America. The diplomatic agenda, as well as the relationship between heads of state are important actors in creating foreign policy that can be mutually beneficial for both countries. Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador (AMLO) has been the president of Mexico since 2018, and his relationship with the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump was surprisingly great, despite their political platforms falling on the opposite end of the spectrum. With the 2020 U.S. presidential election bringing in a new administration headed by Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris, AMLO is wary and apprehensive, although both administrations are leftist oriented. Why is this? What is Biden’s agenda with Mexico? What does this mean for AMLO?

AMLO and Trump

The good relationship between Donald Trump and AMLO was definitely one that tilted many heads. During Trump’s campaign and his first year in office, his harsh and offensive rhetoric toward Mexicans and other Latinos, as well as his pursuit to build a border wall financed by Mexico led to a tension-filled relationship with Mexico’s previous president, the right-wing Enrique Peña Nieto. One would assume that this strain would continue under a leftist Mexican president. Instead, where Peña Nieto refused to bust, AMLO went along with many of Donald Trump’s wishes, especially in regard to immigration and revising NAFTA, which were some of the Trump administration’s key legislative goals. 

AMLO and Trump made many bilateral agreements that served to fortify Mexico’s own border to stop Central American migrants from reaching Mexico, before they could potentially enter the U.S. Much of the Mexican National Guard went from fighting against violent crime to stopping migrants. They also established a revised version of NAFTA, called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

It’s not to imply that there wasn’t pressure on AMLO to do as Trump wished. Trump threatened the stability of the Mexican economy with increased tariffs and even a total border close. However, AMLO avoided admitting to such tension, and instead frequently praised Trump on twitter and at events. In return for cooperating with Trump on such matters, Trump largely stayed out of Mexico’s domestic affairs.  

AMLO and Biden

The Biden administration represents a big upcoming change in U.S.-Mexico relations. Not only has President Biden been rolling back on Trump’s migration policy, but the administration has an overall more in-depth agenda for Mexico. While Trump left AMLO alone if he handled his end of the bargain with curbing migration, Biden plans on being involved in tackling problems regarding corruption, human rights, democracy, security and drug enforcement, among others.

The Mexican government does not have the best track record regarding any of the above mentioned problems. Corruption exists at every level of government. Security forces, including the AMLO-created National Guard are at the center of Mexico’s many human rights abuses, either against migrants or regular civilians in the fight against drug-related crime. While security forces are meant to stamp out violent crime in Mexico, inefficiency plagues the criminal justice system, with a whopping 98% of crimes remaining unsolved. 

Following the 1917 Mexican Revolution, the country set up a federal presidential republic. However, democratic institutions in Mexico have never been stable. Although set up to be a multi-party system, from 1929 to 2000 the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) continuously ruled Mexico using tactics of patronage, clientelism, and hijacking elections. During this time, Mexico was simply not a democracy, and although it wasn’t the kind of military dictatorship found all over the rest of Latin America during the mid-late twentieth century, it was authoritarian. Once another party took over in 2000, the Mexican government implemented many checks to enforce clean elections, and although the PRI remained a powerful institution, new politicians from other parties could rule the government.

Despite the new democratic system finally taking form, AMLO was a politician that continuously vocalized distrust in elections. Both his presidential bids in 2006 and 2012 ultimately failed, and yet he was unrelenting in calling the electoral process corrupt. After Felipe Calderón won the presidency in 2006, AMLO went as far as to set up an alternate cabinet, and referred to himself as the legitimate president throughout Calderón’s term. Once AMLO won in 2018, he has continued to question and delegitimize other fragile democratic institutions such as the press. With the president acting as both head of state and head of government, and executive powers holding less checks and balances in Mexico, experts are worried about the possibility of slipping into an autocratic form of government. 

With reason for AMLO to worry about Biden’s plans for Mexico, it makes sense that his response to Biden’s win is all the more understandable. AMLO was one of three world leaders to not recognize Biden’s win until after the Electoral College vote. Their first call was reportedly cordial, yet much of the contentious issues were not discussed. However, Biden did mention his intent to roll back on Trump era immigration policy.

A Further Stain on Relations

Since Biden’s victory in November, certain scandals has made relations between the two countries even more contentious. Shortly after the election, Mexican military commander and former minister of defense Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda was arrested in the U.S. by the Drug Enforcement Administration on drug trafficking and corruption charges. The Mexican government was outraged by this, and so the U.S. released him from their custody as long as the Mexican government opened up their own investigation on him. Instead, in January the government dropped all charges against Cienfuegos, completely exonerating him from his alleged crimes. 

In response to Cienfuegos initial arrest, in December Mexico passed a law that will regulate the U.S.’s involvement in anti-drug and security operations, making them more difficult and less frequent. This law is a clear cut example of how AMLO wants the U.S. to stay out of his administration and Mexico’s domestic affairs. Ciefuegos’s exoneration also highlights how AMLO will respond to such foreign intervention. 

While the state department, Congress, and the executive branch was vexed over Cienfuegos’s exoneration, Biden’s agenda for Mexico has already made drastic changes in regard to immigration. Apart from that however, other plans are most likely going to come further in the future once the pandemic and economy are recovering.