Abacus: California Needs a Scapegoat
Mario Tama
In California, COVID-19 cases have skyrocketed, and as of February 13th, it is now home to more Coronavirus deaths than any other state in the Union. After what many considered to be a most impressive response to the virus back in March when California was the first state in the nation to impose a statewide lockdown, many have pointed to Governor Gavin Newsom's inability to stop the economic bleeding or the virus' spread as grounds for a recall.
Much of the controversy surrounding Newsom's handling of the pandemic is a response to his attempts, some more successful than others, to balance economic recovery with public health and safety. While this dichotomy has often been the balancing act for policymakers around the country during this crisis, the supporters of the recall point to the inconsistency of Newsom’s lockdown policy and the economic dive that has been felt throughout the state as evidence of his failures.
The troubled economy in California, in some senses, is a matter of facts and figures. In the spring of 2020, as COVID began to emerge, the state unemployment rate ran up to an all-time high of 16.4%. Not only is a crisis like this devastating to the state economy in terms of its production capabilities and statewide demand, with almost 20% of its working population now without an income, but the strain on the state budget is massive when accounting for welfare safety nets that are stretched thin. Further, economic stimulus packages and lost tax revenues due to shutdowns pushed the state towards a budget deficit of almost $54 billion. These shutdowns are the point of contention for many, and the debts the state accrued will present challenges during COVID recovery that will need to be addressed by the state for years to come. In all fairness, the economic impact of COVID-19 has been unavoidable for every state. California is by no means an outlier, but many of the choices made by Gov. Newsom have come under fire in recent months. Most specifically, the sporadic nature of shutdowns and the inability to reopen schools in a significant way. California has imposed two major lockdowns within the state, one in March, another in December 2020 that Reuters reports, "are among the most stringent constraints on business and social life imposed anywhere in the country". While these lockdowns have been taken away and reimplemented as COVID numbers varied throughout 2020 and early 2021, California still became the most significant contributor to the COVID death toll. The discourse surrounding COVID recovery has revolved around saving lives vs. saving the economy and the state has failed to do either.
The COVID crisis has been just a part of what has become a challenging year for the Presidential hopeful Newsom. Former Governor of the State Gray Davis, who was recalled himself in 2003, said in an interview, "Look, I had the energy crisis and a recession. He has a pandemic we haven't seen for 100 years. He has the fallout from that pandemic, racial injustice, wildfires, and I think I'm leaving something out. But nobody, no living governor, has had to experience as many crises as him." In times of crises such as these, people's expectations of government get grander. And while the failures of the US COVID response are not squarely in the in hands of the nation's Governors, the people of California need a scapegoat. More than that, following the departure of Donald Trump from the White House, the people of California now have a new reference point for Newsom's performance in office; one that does not frame him as the same progressive leader of a state leading the charge against COVID while the federal government lagged. The statewide recall effort, spearheaded by Republican National Committee (who moved $250,000 to help the signature-gathering effort) and independent groups have been coming to a head in recent days, as the Secretary of State's office in California estimates that the campaign has around 900,000 signatures, a bit more than half of the 1.5 million required. While representing a small portion of the state as a whole, the effort has highlighted frustrations with the state's leadership and stirred up media coverage., exciting possible challengers. There is some sense that these numbers are inflated, as the recall campaign was given an unprecedented amount of time to collect signatures due to the difficulties of such a task during the pandemic. Even more important to remember, however, is that efforts such as this will do no more than get the question of recall put on the ballot in a state in which Republicans make up just 25% of the state's total registered voter count. Gov. Newsome will likely stay in office, yes, but that is not to say that many of the critiques of his recent policy and personal decisions are not valid. Maybe all of this pressure on Newsome has worked out? The state's budget proposal for 2021 sees relief for workers in the form of $600 grants, half a billion dollars for small businesses, and more for wildfire relief and the school reopening process. All of this while somehow running a surplus seems optimistic, but if those in the state who see the glass half empty get a few hundred thousand more signatures then the people of California can decide how well his plan has worked.
The pandemic has made supply chains fail worldwide, crumbled the labor market, and exposed the cracks in governments around the nation. California is no exception. The debate between saving the economy or locking down was a rhetorical one for most people and because of that, it is often forgotten that it was a real tightrope that policymakers had to walk as they led their states and localities through the crisis. Gov. Newsom, in some capacity, deserves the benefit of the doubt in the face of disaster, but it's hard to walk the line when it has slack in it.
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