Liberty Expose: US Seeking Peace With The Taliban

MARSOC PATROL | Flickr Creative Commons

From the Hellenistic Period of Alexander the Great to the 21st Century, few great powers have ever been able to tame Afghanistan as they must contend with long-standing tribal rivalries and competing interests from other states. The Graveyard of Empires – as it is known – is set on claiming its next victim. After 17 years of fighting the Taliban and democracy building in Afghanistan, the United States under Donald Trump is pushing to exit its longest conflict by negotiating a peace deal with the militant group. This drive for peace is the result of multiple factors: a resurgent Taliban sweeping across the countryside, inability to navigate the country’s ethnic/tribal rivalries, and rising skepticism from the American public about foreign engagements in the Middle East. While withdrawing from the conflict is an attractive policy measure for the American people, leaving our allies to the wolves may prove to be hazardous to US security down the road and we should be wary of the Taliban’s siren song.

Delegations from the United States, the Taliban, Pakistan, the Russian Federation, and Afghan organizations not affiliated with the state are still in the early stages of talks as no real terms have been negotiated. The US also has no plans to withdraw just yet. Noticeably absent from these talks is the Afghan government because the Taliban view President Ashraf Ghani as a pawn of the West and does not represent the country.  

While the peace deal is not fleshed out yet, the Taliban is demanding a withdraw of all foreign powers linked to the U.S. coalition from the country. However, it leaves open the possibility of neighboring states such as Iran, Pakistan, China, India, and Russia entering the arena to compete for influence. The insurgent group has said that they will allow some of the reforms that the new government has made -- particularly in the field of women’s rights -- but there is no guarantee that they will keep their word. Women rights activists in Afghanistan are wary of any claim from the Taliban that they are willing to moderate their beliefs. In an attempt to ease concerns, the Taliban has also stated that they will not seek to rule Afghanistan, nor will they use violence as they did when they captured Kabul in 1996. Whether the Taliban can be trusted is questionable. They have reneged on cease-fires before and may take advantage of an abandoned Afghan government. 

The War in Afghanistan has been a costly one with very little progress for the United States. As the map above from FDD’s Long War Journal shows, the Taliban is contesting half of the country, while it is also controlling 12 percent of Afghanistan’s 398 districts. Unless the Afghan government can project its influence to all corners of the country, the insurgent group is here to stay.  The Taliban is not the only concern the U.S.-Afghan coalition has to deal with. ISIS has expanded operations to the country’s eastern borders, namely in Nangarhar province, putting more pressure on the government. The cause of the Taliban’s continued insurgency comes courtesy of Pakistan’s intelligence community which has funded the group since its inception in the 1990s, giving the militant group access to cash, weapons, and safe harbor in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on the border of Afghanistan 

Further complicating issues for Afghanistan is the amount of support people have for the Taliban. Corruption is rampant in the Afghan government as officers pocket funds meant for policemen and the country’s troops. The inability of the government to win the trust of the people weakens any effort to cripple the Taliban’s bargaining position and drives them to support the insurgent group. 

Support for the war has also gradually declined since America entered Afghanistan in 2001. According to a 2018 Pew Poll survey, 49 percent of those asked said that the United States has failed in its mission, while 39 percent say it has mostly succeeded. Republicans are also more likely to view the mission as a success, while Democrats have a more pessimistic outlook on the conflict. In another survey conducted by Real Clear Politics, the Charles Koch Institute, and YouGov.com, 51 percent of those surveyed believe that it is time to reduce or withdraw troops from the conflict within a year.  

There is also a stark difference in opinion between the generations. Compared to their elders, Millennials are less likely to support military engagement abroad, opting for diplomacy to solve problems. However, as the CATO article points out, this is a common trend among age demographics when they are young. Over time, Millennials may become more supportive of an assertive US foreign policy as Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation are now. 

It should be no surprise that Americans no longer believe the War in Afghanistan is worth it. With over $100 billion dollars spent and more than two thousand US, casualties, Americans are tired of seeing their tax dollars wasted on a weak government and loved ones sacrificed to a war locked in stalemate on the other side of the world. Asymmetric conflicts like the Afghan War are not like conventional ones that pit two or more armies (First Gulf War, World War 1 & 2). The objectives surrounding counterinsurgency campaigns are ever changing and depend on a variety of factors.  Dependence on the figurehead guidance, support of the population, believe in the cause and more can either make or break an insurgent group.

Congressional Republicans, however, see the war differently -- specifically moderate neoconservatives who view retreat as capitulation to Islamic militants. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s statement  is possibly the sharpest individual rebuke of the President’s goal of ending US involvement in Afghanistan, stating that a withdraw could “pave the way for a second 9/11.” Furthermore, the Senate passed a resolution that condemned Trump for seeking to withdraw the US from its engagements in both Syria and Afghanistan. Congressional Republicans also fear that Afghanistan’s neighbors will take advantage of the vacuum created by our retreat and that it will demoralize an already weak Afghan National Security Force (ANSF).  

With all this said and done, the United States should proceed cautiously in the peace talks with the Taliban. The US must seek to negotiate from a position of strength rather than being perceived as desperate to vacate the region. The Afghan people deserve to live in their country without terror. To ensure that Afghanistan does not fall back into the shatter zone, the United States must demand the following points from the Taliban: no tolerance for Al Qaeda and ISIS (the latter of which is already seen by the Taliban as a threat); they will respect civil right reforms and no longer treat women as property; and finally, support the democratic process. The citizens of Afghanistan are worth fighting for, and now it is time to fight for peace in the Graveyard of Empires.