Third Way: The Divided Democratic Electorate and its Implication for 2020

Throughout the Second Congress of the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party during the Summer of 1903 internal bickering over the future direction of the party dominated the agenda. Without consensus on issues both minor and major, the defining consequence of the Congress was the division of the party into two distinct entities, the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks. The former, drastically more Marxist and espousing ideas deemed radically progressive for the time, would come to eclipse the latter after the October Revolution of 1917 and systematically eradicate all dissent in order to form what was to become one of history’s most abusive and totalitarian states, the Soviet Union.

Across the world over a century later, a similar division within the Democratic Party of the United States of America is taking shape and threatening to tear the party apart. While contending with different issues than the pre-revolutionary Russian democrats, the Democratic electorate is balkanizing over questions both small and large. With over a dozen candidates having announced their intention to contest the Presidency in 2020, it is important to take stock in order to understand the different factions within the Democratic Party as well as their ideologies and the likely recipients of their support. By examining their origins, ideologies, associated politicians and most important issues, their likely choice for Presidential representative will become more clear and fellow Democrats will be able to better anticipate the future direction of their party.

Justice Democrats

The Presidency of Barack Obama with its emphasis on expanding federal power and improving the conditions of the nation’s most indigent class reinvigorated the Progressive movement that had laid dormant in American politics since Theodore Roosevelt led the Moose party in the 1912 Presidential election. Since then, a political movement echoing many positions espoused by the original progressives - eliminating poverty, improving conditions for the working class and providing quality education - has taken hold of political discourse.

The Progressive movement of the Twenty-First Century exploded into the mainstream after the shocking election of Donald Trump and gave birth to the Justice Democrats, a political action committee focused on electing fresh faces with progressive ideals to political office. Adopting a progressive ideology centered around anti-establishment and anti-corporate undertones, Justice Democrats and their supporters align themselves with left of center and right of Marxist candidates. Likeminded democrats in general and the Justice Democrats PAC in particular supported young, non-established “working-class” candidates in the 2018 Midterm elections, contributing to the electoral success of Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) among others.

As per their website, the most important issues to Justice Democrats seem to be the imposition of Universal Healthcare, the enactment of a Green New Deal program, and the dispensing of Racial Justice for all Americans. Given the ideological progressive stance of the group, the most likely candidate to draw their support is Bernie Sanders (D-VT) who epitomizes their political vision. However, with Sanders being a septuagenarian white establishment politician, it is also likely that many Justice Democrats may show considerable support for younger, darker and female candidates such as Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) as well.

Democratic Socialists

Consistent with the leftward realignment of the Democratic Party after Ronald Raegan, Democratic Socialists is an umbrella term that has come to represent a tranche of the Democratic electorate that has grown despondent to American capitalism. Originating with the founding of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organization in 1982, sustained support for Democratic Socialism in the Twenty-First Century first began during the 2016 presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders where calls to reduce inequality and improve the working class were understood as a casus belli against the economic system that built the United States.

Espousing a socialist ideology centered around the tenets of anti-capitalism, anti-federalism and proto-communism, the movement calls for a socio-economic realignment of the United States and drastic political change. As explained on the DSA website, where one’s first greeting is a charming animated video lambasting capitalism and advocating for a quasi-worker’s revolution to seize the means of production, Democratic Socialists support a range of left-leaning issues including Medicare for All and Unionization, as well as radical measures aimed at centralizing political power in Washington, such as abolishing the U.S. Senate and monopolizing power by progressive Democrats.

The current representatives most strongly associated with Democratic Socialism are Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), both of which campaigned heavily on socialist themes and who are themselves formal members of the DSA organization. As for presidential contenders, self-described Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders is indubitably the most likely candidate to receive undivided support from this group, himself being both the inception of the modern movement and the candidate who most fiercely advocates for its principals.

American Descendants of Slavery (#ADOS)

The American Descendants of Slavery, most commonly referred to by the hashtag #ADOS, represents African Americans who are ostensibly direct descendants of either former black slaves or multi-generational African-Americans who suffered under state-sponsored discrimination after Reconstruction. The publicized debate over the ADOS designation first arose during the first presidential campaign of Barack Obama, when many African-American activists questioned whether Obama, the descendant of a Kenyan academic, truly was the nation’s first serious black presidential candidate and really understood the plight of African-Americans. ADOS was revived after the candidacy of Kamala Harris, herself the descendant of minority immigrants, was announced on Martin Luther King day of 2019 with tweets bearing #ADOS surfacing shortly thereafter on Jan. 29, 2019 and continuing since.

Centered around a pro-black, anti-racist and anti-immigrant (or rather an “anti-immigrant-focused-policy”) agenda, the single most important issue for this group is developing a plan for distributing reparations to the “true” African-American community for slavery and subsequent legal discrimination. More notable than who they support is who they oppose. Despite being black Kamala Harris, an ex-prosecutor turned senator who has the opportunity of making history by becoming the first black woman in the oval office, has been a target for criticism for not truly being an ADOS. Furthermore, it appears hard for ADOS to find candidates to support since their chief argument is that candidates don’t do or don’t advocate enough for ADOS interests. As such, candidates who propose reparations or revitalization measures in depressed ADOS neighborhoods would likely garner support from the group. Short of that, should the group remain true to its boycott of non-ADOS candidates, the likely fall back option would be 2020’s only ADOS candidate, Cory Booker.

Centrist Democrats

Centrist or moderate Democrats are the bread and butter of the modern Democratic Party. Staying true to the moderate vision of Democratic policies under Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, these Democrats represent the diversity of America and differ from their Republican counterparts by very slight degrees. While the Democratic Party may indeed be moving more towards the left, 48 percent of Democrats still describe themselves as moderate and the “liberal” banners now waved by 51 percent of Democrats today come in many shades of red. The centrist Democrat represents every Democrat that has ever achieved the Presidency and most of which that have obtained political office throughout American history.

Viewed in the context of American politics holistically, centrist Democrats are slightly left-of-center. They believe in a real, albeit limited, role of government in the economy and support adherence to liberal interpretations of the Constitution. As such, centrist Democrats support proposals such as background checks and military weapons-bans in regards to the Second Amendment as well as pro-choice abortion policies that have been argued to fall under the protection of the Fourteenth Amendment. Furthermore, moderate Democrats foster moral ideals for pragmatic policies that see them support initiatives aimed as securing the border without sanctioning the separation of families and draconian internal immigration measures. With the leftward shift in the democratic electorate, centrist Democrats can be described as Obamacare Democrats in regards to healthcare whereby they recognize the benefits of limiting the discretionary and oftentimes discriminatory practices of insurance companies and the necessity of welfare programs while also appreciating the diversity and individual choice that is inherent to the private health insurance market. Finally, moderate Democrats are those that support a role for the United States abroad and who reject isolationism as a means of advancing our singular interests or disassociating ourselves from the goings-on of the world at large.

As such, the most important issues to centrist Democrats are impossible to identify because they comprise all political issues affecting the nation. Meden Agan as advocated for by Solon is their guiding ethos which puts them and the Democratic Party at risk when faced with potential nominees who advocate for excessive socialist policies that attempt to destabilize the center. With this in mind, the most likely Democratic candidate for the presidency in 2020 that would receive support from this preponderant voting bloc is Joe Biden who mirrors Obama in almost every respect and does not come across as morally corrupt (although the Biden family is no model for society) like the Democrats’ moderate candidate in 2016 did. Another ideal candidate that has not signaled a potential bid is the former Democratic governor of California, Jerry Brown, a man who has proven himself to be a fiscal moderate, does not espouse radical social policies and stays true to the left of center base by advocating for climate change solutions and moral integrity in issues such as immigration.

#MeToo Democrats

The #MeToo social movement first saw sparks after the allegations of sexual assault and subsequent trial against Hollywood producer Hervey Weinstein in 2017. Since then, fueled by a litany of sexual assault allegations leveled against celebrity figures ranging from actors to musicians to the sitting President of the United States, the movement has gained traction and now sees nearly 40 percent of Americans believing that it has led to positive change in the country. Building off of this social support, activists and organizers have channeled their energy into making substantive political change by supporting both female candidates and those that advocate for tougher laws regarding sexual assault and victim rehabilitation. Unsurprisingly, given the reputation of the Republican Party's top elected official, the Democratic party has become the mainstay of the #MeToo political movement, with the Democratic electorate ushering in a record number of women in the 2018 election.

#MeToo democrats and the movement’s adherents believe that rampant sexual assault and the discriminatory treatment of women negatively impact the nation and reflect poorly on the values the U.S. is built upon. As such, their ideology focuses on empowering women in society, especially in the realm of politics, and preventing discrimination against women across all aspects of life, including but not limited to the workplace (e.g., equal pay) and education (e.g., prevention of sexual assault on college campuses). Unsurprisingly, female politicians are at the forefront of the political #MeToo movement as seen in the all-white attire worn by Democratic congresswomen during the 2019 State of the Union Address. Because of this, #MeToo democrats are likely to rally around the strong female candidates among the field of 2020 Democratic hopefuls such as Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), and Kamala Harris.

Anti-Zionists

Like most Western political parties, the Democrats have historically shown strong support for the state of Israel and have been committed to brokering a sustainable peace between the latter and Palestine. Unlike most Republicans, however, the Democratic Party, without imperiling American-Israeli relations by challenging the prerogatives of the Jewish state, have put an emphasis on the viability of a two-state solution since the Oslo Accords brokered by then-Democratic President Bill Clinton in 1993. With the election of Barack Obama and the advent of the Boycott-Divest-Sanction (BDS) movement in the Twenty-First Century, the Democratic electorate has become more sensitive to the larger issue of Zionism and its oppressive realities.

Zionism, as conceived and understood, is a Jewish movement to return to and reestablish themselves within their homeland (Zion), historic Palestine and modern day Israel. Consisting of a long and complicated history involving the Ottoman Empire, the British Cabinet and the horrors of the Holocaust, Zionism became manifest in 1948 with the creation of the state of Israel. Since then, Zionism has been expanded to include the sporadic and mostly indirectly state-supported establishment of Israeli-Jewish settlements in the West Bank, a territory nominally part of the Palestinian Authority, the de jure state of Palestine. These settlements, seen as illegal extensions of the state of Israel and criticized for displacing the native Palestinians, have led to severe diplomatic and political backlash against the state of Israel and form the nucleus of the current anti-Zionist movement within the Democratic Party.

Understanding the origins of anti-Zionism is important to distinguish the movement from anti-semitism, that is, prejudice against Jewish people. Accordingly, anti-Zionist democrats are not anti-semitic, rather their chief priority is the establishment of a two-state solution (i.e., advocating for the formal recognition of Palestine as a country under international law by the United States) and ensuring the cessation of settlement building by Israeli jews in the West Bank. The most prominent anti-Zionists in Congress are freshmen Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and Rashida Tlaib, both of whom are Muslim. In a testament to her anti-Zionist fervor, Rep. Omar recently came under fire for a Twitter outburst in which she blamed the “hypnot[ic]” influence of Israel over the international community as a means of maintaining their “apartheid” state. Due to pressure from Democratic leadership, she apologized for the tweets which have since been deleted.

Anti-Zionist democrats would support any candidate who is committed to advocating for a two-state solution. As such, as ironic it would seem considering his Brooklyn Jewish background, a likely candidate who has galvanized support from the anti-Zionist community is Bernie Sanders, who has consistently backed an approach to a two-state solution. Other possibilities among higher-profile candidates include Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, although the latter emphasizes that there should be no two state solution without bi-lateral agreement between Israel and Palestine, an unlikely scenario even for the most optimistic diplomat.

Conservative Democrats

Originally most Democrats were considered conservative as they opposed the Republican Party’s efforts to combat slavery and impose Reconstruction on the South. After the New Deal era, many southern Democrats, wary of the influence big government could have on their way of life, continued the tradition in opposing efforts to desegregate America. More recently, with control over the South having shifted to the Republican Party, conservative Democrats became those representing largely rural areas, mostly from frontier or Western states that count progressive social views mixed with strong support for small government, fiscal responsibility and individualism. Indeed, the conservative Democrat is now mainly a Western phenomenon as seen through the membership of the Blue Dog Coalition in the House of Representatives, of which only eight are from the South with most being from the West or Midwestern states.

Today’s conservative Democrats are very different from their southern counterparts half a century ago. Usually, they are in most respects traditional centrist Democrats that disagree with the larger party on certain signature issues. For instance, Kurt Schrader (D-OR) is a traditional Democrat in many respects who supports the ACA and is pro-choice in regards to abortion. However, he is a firm supporter of the Second Amendment which has led many pundits to label him as a conservative. Thus, in order to acutely understand a conservative Democrat one must envision a moderate Democrat with conservative views on one or a few key issues, and a Democratic representative that tends to be more bipartisan than others in his party and has a greater tendency to cross the aisle and vote with Republicans.

Due to this lack of uniformity, conservative Democrats are liable to support any candidate that aligns the most with their signature issue. For instance, those who care deeply about gun rights but are moderate democrats or leftist in other regards could find solace with Bernie Sanders, while those who are more fiscally conservative and socially progressive could throw their weight behind a candidate like Joe Biden. However, this election could sound the death rattle for a majority of conservative Democrats as many may opt to cross the aisle at the polling place and vote for the GOP or even cast a ballot for the Democrat’s antithesis, Donald Trump.