Third Way: Looking Towards The Light: Catholic Voters In 2020
CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP
The first October surprise of the 2020 election came in September. The passing of the legendary Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has left open a seat on the Supreme Court, allowing the Republican Senate and White House to nominate a conservative, Catholic judge to fill her seat. Both parties are crusading for the White House and now the Supreme Court, and religion has become one of their battle tactics.
The “Catholic Factor,” or the weight of the Catholic electorate, has the potential to affect the outcome of the 2020 election. Catholics, however, cannot be defined as a single bloc. In this election, the Lord's favour seems to lie with Hispanic Catholics and moderate White Catholics who can overlook Democratic candidate Joe Biden's stance on abortion. While President Donald Trump may be using the controversial debate on abortion to swing the electorate, it is Biden's use of Catholicism as a moral stance that may pay off in the end.
Despite the attention towards Catholicism and faith as a whole in politics, religion, especially Christianity, is on the decline in America. Non-affiliated groups, or the oft called “nones,” are becoming the majority in America. These nones are increasingly left-leaning and are largely made up of Millennials. Despite this, religion is still an important factor for voters. Tolerance of Muslims and atheists in politics has only marginally grown, and, as of writing, there has yet to be a president who does not worship some branch of Christianity. With only 41% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats willing to vote for an atheist president, it seems that a total absence of faith would only hinder a candidate’s chances.
Although Christianity across the country is dwindling, Catholicism has played a pivotal role in the 2020 election. Biden has frequently spoken of his Catholic roots, while Trump has heralded evangelical policies. The decrease in those heading to church does not mean that the electoral impact of religion has dissipated. The white evangelical voting group may only constitute 16% of the country, yet it was their influence that helped President Donald Trump win the 2016 election. According to exit polls, 80% of these voters chose Trump in 2016. It seems likely that they will vote for him again. Midwest Catholics, who make up a considerable if not unstable voting bloc, may vote for Trump again, too.
The devil, however, is in the details, at least for Trump. Biden may see God. The reason: the growing amount and power of Hispanic Catholics. Hispanic Catholics make up 40% of the American Catholic population, and a median age of 29 makes them millennials. It is also the case that 68% of Hispanic Catholics identify as Democrats, and are more concerned with climate change than White Catholics.
This plays into Biden's hand well. Climate change is becoming a pivotal part of his campaign, and his focus on his Catholic faith and the ongoing pandemic (rather than immigration) could win him the votes of non-Democratic Hispanics.
But is the focus on religion in this election just about taking the other sides marbles and going home? This idea on its surface may be true. Even before Trump's inflammatory bible photo-shoot, some white evangelicals were turning away from Trump due to his mishandling of COVID-19. Biden is trying to sway those dissenters, but both candidates are trying to chip away at the other’s advantage, specifically with regards to white Catholics.
If Biden and Trump want Catholic coins in their coffers, it is unlikely their campaigning will do much. Catholic voters support specific policies depending on their political alignment, rather than simply voting in support of policies aligned with Catholic doctrine. Although their votes will count and should not be ignored, the alignment of white Catholic voters by policy means it's less likely for moderates to switch to Biden or Trump based only on their religious posturing. Biden is more likely to have success by focusing on Hispanic Catholics, which will become increasingly important as Hispanic immigrants began to become more politically active in their communities.
Re-reading The Psalms
Although happening for years, the 2020 election is revealing a historical shift in the role of religion in politics. The ideas of Thomas Hobbes, who understood religion as being a tool of the sovereign to encourage obedience among citizens, are passé. Hobbes believed religion to be a fundamentally political institution that should be used to ensure the sovereign was restricted by nothing, as he argued in the third part of Leviathan. However, political history from Baruch Spinoza and John Locke onwards sees a decisive split between church and state, although Catholic values continue to influence American worldviews and have been used as political shorthand for conservative policies. The liberal (as in liberalism) notion that one's commitments to faith are of their own business remains true in America today.
Now, with religion taking a back seat, faith is no longer a political instrument used to strengthen obedience to the law or a stumbling block worth waging a Kulturkampf against. Instead, it is possible to see religion as a form of identity politics. Both Trump and Biden can be seen as attempting to appeal to a single group of people by appealing to Catholicism. Yet, as discussed earlier, the Catholic demographic is anything but homogenous.
A complex mix of individuals doesn't seem like a useful audience for the delivery of a single sermon. Identity politics scare off right-leaning Catholics. Conservative writer Brian Burch argues that many Catholics see identity politics as "a social poison" that doesn't address their concerns as a group. Despite Burch's self-contradictory logic (as he invokes an identity group that is against identity groups), his point is fair. Treating Catholicism as a uniform group in identity politics could worsen the odds for Biden.
Biden's approach to religion does have echoes of identity politics and the broadchurch pluralism of his party in it. While his campaign website includes a Catholic agenda page, there are also agendas, among others, for Jewish and Muslim people. Yet Biden's strategy for Catholics is not all about identity. Biden uses his faith as a means to show his saintliness; faith serves as a marker of his morality. The use of the phrase "battle for the soul" on his campaign page indicates this. The presence of “dignity” and the invocation of the Pope on the Catholic agenda page further imply that Biden is aiming to appear saintly in spirit and soul. Recent polls show that this is working.
Despite this, Trump has his him nailed on Catholic doctrinal policy. While the President has been anything but transparent about his religious leanings, his policy stances make it clear that he understands what white evangelicals and half of the Catholic population are seeking. His intense anti-abortion stance has culminated in the nomination of the staunchly conservative (if not questionably cultish) and Catholic Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. That threatens the distinction between church and state more than Biden’s faith ever could.
Biden's faith is not wholly for the campaign trail; it demonstrates a guiding principle. His association of Catholicism with morality may indicate his plans for future policy. For instance, Biden's evokes a moral authority when discussing his plans for immigrants, which revolve around protecting their rights and re-thinking border separation. In the foreign policy arena, Biden's moral leadership may be a code word for being tough on China's Uyghur Laogais, Iran's Evin prison, and the election crisis in Belarus, which the White House has not even addressed. That will score him points in the foreign policy arena that President Trump has dutifully ignored.
Biden's Catholicism may appear to be just ‘Holy Spirit,’ but his faith does encourage images of him as a saintly member of the Church, and therefore something of a moral leader. This strategy may win him crucial Hispanic and white Midwestern Catholic votes. Regardless, what should be taken away from his faith is not his electoral success, but his plans for the Oval Office. Biden, like JFK, plans on being a president first, Catholic second; there is no establishment clause issue here. The moral righteousness of Catholicism, however, guides his desire to return moral leadership to a nation that has worshipped a golden-haired calf for far too long.
