Third Way: Don't Run From The Cities. Democrats Can Handle Crime

ABC 6 Philadelphia

Newsfeeds in recent weeks have been flooded with stories about overwhelming crime in Democrat-led cities. Philadelphia, specifically, made the news with a viral video that showed looters stealing from stores and cops attacking them, leading Republican leaders from across the country to claim Democrats cannot handle the rising crime in these cities. However, there is very little true merit to this claim and Democrat mayors across the country remain at the forefront of reducing crime in the cities. The belief Republicans can handle crime better comes down to political messaging surrounding this issue. Philadelphia’s next mayor, therefore, offers a potential case study for political messaging for Democrats to use.

Background

Are Democratic mayors unable to deal with crime in their cities? Since the 1970s and 1980s, there has been a perception by voters that Democrats tend to be soft on crime while Republicans take a hard stance to reduce it. Polling demonstrates voters trust Republicans to handle crime better than Democrats. In more recent years, that perception has increased in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests. Democrats have been more supportive of these protests than Republicans, calling for reform.  Many Republicans point to this support and claim they want to defund the police, a political position only taken by the far left, not center Democrats. The Senate recently overturned a D.C. law intended to increase police accountability but decrease sentences for certain crimes, like carjacking. Democrats voted with Republicans on this issue. This further demonstrates a shift towards more law-and-order policies to reduce crime and a closer alignment with Republicans on this issue to improve the perception with their base.

Perception or Reality?

This of course begs the question, are these perceptions grounded in reality? Not necessarily. Overall, violent crime is down, and homicide is significantly less than it was decades ago. However, that is not the picture that is painted in the news. Despite the media overreporting on these blue cities, the states with the highest crime levels are states that voted for Trump over Biden. This phenomenon is called the red state murder gap and has been consistent for over 20 years. This partisan gap in murder has even widened in recent years. Many believe this surge in crime in red states is due to their lack of gun restrictions. Most homicides are committed with guns, so states that allow easy access to guns have the highest rate of crimes, not major Northern Democratic cities. Despite the red state murder gap, people continue to perceive cities as a place of high criminal activity.

Crime Levels in the Cities

Clearly, crime still occurs in these Northern cities, but they are associated with factors that have nothing to do with partisan affiliation. Population density in these cities make crime more likely to occur. More people interacting more frequently increases the chances some issue could arise. Additionally, the opioid crisis is still prevalent in this country. Opioid users are much more likely to commit crimes to get the drugs they want. This relatively new issue requires a totally different approach to crime. Further, poverty has been historically linked to violence. There are higher numbers of impoverished people in cities also because of population density and historical factors. Due to these factors, there is very little difference between Republican controlled cities and Democratic controlled cities when it comes to murder rates. The four deadliest states are Mississippi, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Alabama. Two of these states have Democratic governors and two have Republican governors. Further, data shows it is a mayor’s policies towards area like crime that affects the crime rate, rather than the partisan affiliation of that mayor.

While crime in Democratic cities are not as high as believed, crime levels are still being taken seriously by local leaders. Democratic mayors across the nation are taking steps to combat crime in their cities. In Atlanta, the mayor has added 10,000 streetlights throughout the city. Chicago has introduced the biggest gun buyback program in Chicago history. Detroit received increased funds and resources to deal with mental health issues. Finally, Seattle created community conversations with citizens to understand their priorities when it comes to policing before selecting the next chief of police. Democratic mayors are using every tool at their disposal to help reduce the crime rates in their cities and are creative and resourceful to make the cities safer.

Changing the Perception

Despite Democratic leaders actively working to reduce the levels of crime, voters continue to have the perception that they do little to stop crime, unlike their Republican counterparts. Therefore, this comes down to voter messaging. Republicans frequently go on the attack when it comes to crime and Democrats are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They fear alienating their far-left constituents, but know moderates and independents want to see a harder stance on crime. The election for Philadelphia's next mayor, therefore, offers a potential model for how Democratic leaders can reclaim the messaging on this issue. Many Democratic cities have voted for more moderate Democratic leaders because voters believe progressives do not do enough to combat this issue. Cherelle Parker has beat her more progressive opponent for the primary by touting a proactive police presence throughout the city and tougher law enforcement. She claims you can invest in societal problems while investing in policing at the same time. While she has been criticized from the far left for her support of stop and frisk, her recent primary win against the far-left opponent demonstrates Democrat voters want a harder stance on crime. Her messaging on this issue for Philadelphia is vital for Democrats to understand how to take control of the political messaging, especially because Pennsylvania is likely to be another battleground state in 2024.

Democrats do not have a crime problem; they have a perception of crime problem. Crime occurs in places with population density and poverty. These greater societal issues need big reforms and affect red and blue states. Further, it is red states, because of a lack of gun restrictions that see the highest rates of homicides. While Democratic leaders are stepping up to address the issue and are even taking steps to change the messaging around crime, Democratic leaders need to continue to find ways to increase gun control and address mental health concerns. More importantly, they need to take back control of this issue and show voters they are actively making their communities safer.