Third Way: Abortion Is The Winning Issue For Democrats in 2024
Gayatri Malhotra
The November elections of this year resulted in huge wins for Democrats. Virginia kept Democratic control of the Senate and flipped their state house, the Democratic Kentucky governor won re-election, and the state constitutional amendment to abortion in Ohio was passed. While these results were encouraging for Democrats, these elections communicate an important message about how voters feel regarding abortion.
Due to the election results in 2022 and 2023, abortion rights must be the central message of the 2024 campaigns. It has become the social issue Democrats can win on and mobilizes large groups of voters. Abortion continues to poll very well in this country, especially after the Dobbs v. Jackson decision.
It is the key issue Democrats and Biden can win on. While Biden has demonstrated support for Roe v. Wade, he needs to do more to advance abortion rights and Democrats must make their messaging stronger on this issue. By doing this, both Biden and Democratic leadership can ensure Democrats have victories in 2024.
Election Results
The election results from this year boded well for the Democrats. Despite Trump winning Ohio in 2016 and 2020, 56% of voters supported the abortion protection measure. One reason for this was a high-profile situation occurring last year in Ohio where a 10-year-old girl was raped and forced to travel to Indiana to receive abortion services.
In Kentucky, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won re-election by campaigning heavily on abortion; Kentucky voted last year to protect abortion rights. In Virginia, the state legislature flipped blue after Governor Youngkin promwised a 15-week ban if Republicans controlled the House and Senate.
Currently, Virginia guarantees the right to an abortion up to 26 weeks and is the only Southern state not to enact restrictive abortion laws after the Dobbs decision. These outcomes align with 6 additional red states that codified abortion rights since 2022. As seen here, voters showed up for abortion rights in 2022 and 2023, resulting in key Democratic victories.
Abortion As An Issue
A huge reason abortion issues result in pro-choice legislation is due to how the vast majority of Americans feel about abortion. Previously considered one of the most polarizing issues in American politics, it has quickly transcended party lines to be a highly popular issue that polls generally well with both parties.
In June of 2023, 64% of voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Additionally, following the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, 55% of voters said abortion was very important to their vote in November. This was a 9-point increase from the February polls taken prior to the Dobbs decision. Therefore, abortion has become far more mobilizing as the issue has been threatened.
Additionally, since the decision, more Democratic women say this issue is important as less Republican women do. This issue has become more salient for Democrats and has resulted in increased numbers at the polls. Since Republicans successfully stopped the national protection of Roe v. Wade, many of those voters are less compelled to fight for an issue they have already won. While the issue is less polarizing, it does mobilize Democratic voters in higher numbers.
The issue of abortion is also important for Democratic messaging because Democrats have not won on social issues in years. Many issues regarding childhood education, CRT, LGBTQ rights, and crime are won by Republicans who go on the offense to frighten voters into showing up. Republicans demonstrate the consequences of Democratic leadership on a particular issue, and it is that concern that mobilizes voters. Democrats now have a social issue they can win on.
When polled, voters said the most important issues for the 2024 election were Medicare, education, abortion, immigration, and crime. Democrats have not been able to win on issues like immigration and crime. However, they could win on education, abortion and Medicare, if they lean into the ramifications of those issues in the hands of Republican leaders.
The Biden Administration
Given the clear importance of abortion as an issue as demonstrated through polling and voting, it would be wise for the Biden administration to throw full support behind this issue. Since Dobbs, the administration has demonstrated clear support for abortion protections. They issued executive orders to ensure access to emergency abortions, defended the FDA’s support for mifepristone, an abortion pill, strengthened access to contraception, ensured veterans had access to abortion, and defended a women’s right to travel for an abortion.
However, despite these stances, the action taken since Dobbs has been relatively weak. Biden ran on codifying Roe v. Wade in 2020 and suggested doing it in 2022 if there was full Democratic control of the House and a filibuster majority in the Senate. The likelihood of that, however, was nearly impossible since a filibuster-proof majority has not occurred since 2008. Further, Biden could have pushed for more comprehensive abortion protections with executive orders, even issuing a national guarantee up to a certain number of weeks, but he did not.
This lack of offense taken by Biden has huge potential ramifications, not only for 2024 but for the Democratic message. Democrats must show voters that when they are elected, they not only defend women from abortion restrictions, but they go on the offense and enshrine abortion protections.
In 2024, as many as 8 states have abortion referendums on the ballots, including many key swing states, like Arizona and Nevada. The Biden administration needs to make sure voters who care about abortion rights show up in those states to protect abortion and to ensure another Democratic presidency.
Biden is currently polling behind Trump in key swing states. Trump has yet to take a hard stance on abortion, but has shown in his presidency, he prefers pro-life justices, who overturned Roe v. Wade. Biden needs to emphasize the disparity between Trump and himself regarding this all-important and incredibly popular issue.
The elections in 2022 and 2023 show how fear of abortion restrictions mobilizes voters, even in red states to show up and vote to protect it. Democrats must make this a central issue of 2024. Abortion can and should be the winning issue for the Democrats.