Third Way: Polarization, Inflation, and Immigration: The Biggest Issues Facing America

LaylaBird

America has huge political and policy challenges to overcome in the next few years. The biggest issues in 2024, however, are polarization, inflation, and immigration. Polarization worsens our democratic strength and trust in government institutions. Inflation hurts the economy and affects trust as voters see the government as unable to address these issues. Immigration has recently become a huge issue as migrants are being bused to large northern cities. This issue overwhelms the cities and hurts trust in local governments. All three pose huge challenges to America’s ability to govern and must be tackled in 2024.

Polarization

Polarization has quickly become one of this country’s biggest issues. It has skyrocketed in recent years, resulting in huge issues for the government. Severe polarization correlates with democratic decline which is a huge concern. Three factors worsen polarization: binary choice, or a two-party system, the Senate filibuster which reinforces minority rights, and the three-decade-old trend of partisan sorting, in which the two parties reinforce urban-rural, religious-secular, and racial-ethnic cleavages rather than promote cross-cutting cleavages. In other words, there are factors unique to America which allows polarization to grow stronger. People in one political party don’t just view the other party negatively, they view anyone in the other party negatively with 72% of Republicans viewing Democrats as immoral and 63% of Democrats viewing Republicans as immoral. Polls find that this sentiment of the other party’s policies being harmful to the country is a huge reason for people’s party affiliation. People are not necessarily pro their party, but anti the other one.

The force that empowers polarization is tribalism: clustering ourselves into groups that compete against each other in a zero-sum game where negotiation and compromise are perceived as betrayal, whether those groups are political, racial, economic, religious, gender, or generational. Party identity reinforces already existing identities. Since there are distinct demographics that support certain parties, it is easier to see distance between groups of people since there are no pre-existing commonalities.

Result of Polarization

What are the effects of this extreme polarization currently? At the elite level, deep political divides in Washington have crippled efforts at legislative compromise, eroded institutional and behavioral norms, and incentivized politicians to pursue their aims outside of gridlocked institutions, including through the courts. Additionally, polarization worsens gridlock, increases government shutdowns, and decreases laws passed. Researchers have noted that the 112th Congress passed fewer laws than any other Congress dating back to the 1800s. When this occurs, people lose faith in these institutions. It then furthers a disconnect between voters and politicians. For example, over 90% of voters support universal background checks for gun purchases. Yet our polarized Congress, and a media environment that treats gun issues as a zero-sum game between gun owners and gun control activists, elude that consensus.

Further, since the 2016 election, hate crimes have risen and more Americans seem to be endorsing the idea of intergroup violence. One 2018 study linked these trends to “partisan identity strength”—how much being Democrat or Republican is part of who we are. In sum, polarization worsens government efficiency, hurts trust in democratic institutions, increases the divide between the desires of voters and their politicians, and creates potentially violent situations. It is essential to reduce political polarization to protect people from the worst effects of it.

Inflation

 Inflation is also a huge policy concern in 2024. Americans have lost a lot of purchasing power this year. Back in January, the typical consumer had to spend $395 more a month for the same goods and services bought a year ago. Despite these rises in prices, 55% of Americans say their wages have not kept up with the costs. Initially, a burst of stimulus checks, government spending and lower interest rates helped prop up demand, while shutdowns drastically slowed the economy.  At the same time, many companies cut output in anticipation of slowing demand amid a recession, creating a low supply of goods. Other factories — both within the U.S. and abroad — halted production altogether because infections kept floors closed. However, demand for goods and services sprung back as soon as state governments lifted stay-at-home restrictions. That strong demand and lack of supply helped create inflation.

“A gap exists and that's what I think workers are telling us. Their incomes have come up and they are reaping the benefits of the job market, but prices have gone up even more so they're still playing this game of catch up,” - Bankrate Analyst Sarah Foster

The effects of inflation are especially hard for people on a fixed income who cannot keep up with these prices. Inflation has severely hurt the housing market as well. Finally, it erodes trust in institutions like the Federal Reserve because they appear unable to bring prices down again. This negative perception of institutions perpetuates issues like polarization which feed into the narrative of government inefficiency and gridlock.

Immigration

Finally, immigration is a huge issue. 47% of Americans now say illegal immigration is an issue, up from 38% last year. Further, only 23% believe the government does a good job at the U.S. Mexico border when it comes to receiving immigrants. Additionally, the record number of asylum seekers and other migrants entering the United States after being apprehended at the Southern border is placing an unprecedented financial strain on states and cities nationwide, even as local governments continue to recover from the economic toll resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the insufficient federal funding and newcomers’ limited access to public benefits, city services have become the last resort for meeting individuals’ basic needs.

Local leaders have responded in different ways and with patchwork approaches, relying heavily on local nonprofits for assistance. The issue of migrants continues to overwhelm local governments. Their inability to quickly deal with this issue hurts voters’ trust in local government, overwhelms resources available, and increases the potential for violence between these groups.

All three issues pose a huge challenge to America in 2024. Polarization is an existential threat to our democracy and continues to correlate with our democratic decline. It hurts trust and increases violence. Inflation reflects a poor economy and an inefficient government unable to help the most vulnerable people. Finally, immigration has overwhelmed cities, hurt resources, and worsened trust between voters and local government. These issues have the potential to cause several more issues down the line. It is imperative that these issues be addressed to move the nation forward.