Third Way: Battleground States And What They Mean For 2024
Juan Moyano
Narrow victories in six states carried Joe Biden to victory in 2020. These new battleground states have become the center of attention as the 2024 election quickly approaches. The states are increasingly more diverse than previous swing states, representing the population growth of minorities. There are huge discrepancies between racial groups in terms of political affiliation. These discrepancies matter as populations move and change. As minority groups gain electoral power, they gain the ability to become the deciding factor in selecting the commander-in-chief. Both candidates need to be aware of the distinct voting groups in these states in order to effectively campaign. It is clear for 2024, the winning candidate will need as many swing states as possible.
The New Swing States
The new battleground states are Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. They are added in addition to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which have historically been battleground states. Looking at the political affiliations of the state indicates a clear divide in power. However, looking at the political affiliation by race in these states paints a slightly different picture and demonstrates the change in power in these states. It is not a 50/50 divide in political affiliation. Rather, they are unevenly divided by racial group and percentage of population.
Arizona: The population overall leans Democrat 30%, with 34% who lean Republican, and 34.5% who are independent. However, White people lean 49% Republican and 34% Democrat, while Latinos lean 41% Democrat and 31% Republican.
Georgia: Overall it looks like a clear split- 41% Republican, 41% Democrat, and 18% independent. However, breaking down by race shows - 59% of White people lean Republican and 12% lean Democrat. Black people lean 25% Republican and 73% Democrat.
Michigan: Michigan is 34% Republican, 47% Democrat and 19% independent. Breaking down by race shows White people are evenly divided with 40% Republican and 41% Democrat but Black people are not with 8% Republican and 81% Democrat.
Nevada: The population is 29% Republican, 31% Democrat, and 31% independent overall. 46% of White people identify as Republican and 35% Democrat while 18% of Black people identify as Republican and 29% as Democrat.
Pennsylvania: The population is 46% Democrat, 39% Republican, and 15% independent. By race, White people lean 44% Republican and 41% Democrat while Black people lean 84% Democrat and 6% Republican.
Wisconsin: Overall, Wisconsin is tied with 42% Democrat to 42% Republican. With White people making up the majority of the state, that statistic remains the same for racial breakdowns.
These statistics are important because rather than showing a true divide in the electorate, this demonstrates the differences in voting preferences by race. Rather than these states becoming more centralized, minorities have grown, granting them more electoral power than before.
Population Growth and Demographic Changes
Many of these states recently became battlegrounds because of population growth reflected in the 2020 census. States with high minority populations have become more important electorally than ever before. Since the 2000s, the non-Hispanic White population has declined with some states experiencing double-digit drops. At the same time, Hispanic voters have made up a bigger share of the electorate. In Arizona from 2000-2018, White voters fell from 75% to 63% while Hispanic voters grew from 15% to 24%. Similar things have happened in other swing states- Nevada had a drop in white voters from 76% to 58% while Hispanic voters doubled from 10% to 20%. Finally, in Georgia, white voters dropped from 68% to 58% and black voters grew from 27% to 32%. Overall, non-white eligible voters accounted for ¾ of total electorate growth since 2000.
Therefore, these states have become more competitive because of minority population growth. This growth has swung the pendulum away from guaranteed Republican victories. Not only is the electorate in these states becoming more racially diverse, but they are becoming more geographically diverse. Non-White population increases in the South and the West have shifted the concept that just the Midwest has swing state power. These factors are inherently important. The deciding electorate is becoming far more diverse, meaning candidates must shift their strategies to win them over.
The 2024 Election
What does this mean for 2024? In 2020, Biden narrowly won these six swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He won Arizona with just 10,000 votes, Georgia with 11,000, and Wisconsin with 20,000. Despite these narrow margins, the winner-take-all system in these states helped secure Biden the necessary electoral votes. However, currently, Biden is trailing Trump in polls in all six of these key states. Republican strategists know Trump must appeal to suburban voters to win his way back to the White House. In the Biden camp, concerns over recent policy issues have hurt him. These six states hold the path to victory in 2024. Biden must work to regain in the polls and appeal to voters there.
These new battleground states represent an important electoral shift in the country. As the population continues to diversify, new states begin to become more unpredictable. Clear political divides by race show the importance of new strategies to appeal to these racially diverse states in the upcoming election. These states were key to Biden’s 2020 victory. For 2024, both candidates need to shift their strategy in appealing to swing states. These states now represent a diverse coalition. The playbook used for the Midwest cannot be useful anymore. Both candidates need to acknowledge the growing electoral power of minorities and work to gain their votes.