Third Way: To Recall, Or Not To Recall: Does Surging Crime In Oakland Warrant Mayor Thao’s Removal?
Sheng Thao - Jane Tyska
In January of 2024, a notice of intent to recall Mayor Sheng Thao of Oakland, California was officially sent to the mayor’s office by Brenda Harbin-Forte, a retired superior court judge from Oakland's district, Alameda County. The main driving factor for this recall effort against Thao is her alleged mishandling of the issue of crime. Thao's critics are accusing her of neglecting, even actively, to handle the surge in violent crime over the past several months.
Elected in November of 2022 and sworn in the following January, Thao has been described by one of her allies as a “down-to-earth candidate.” Along with her history of service to her community, she is the first renter to become mayor of Oakland and the youngest mayor in three-quarters of a century. Thao has a humble background which can resonate with her constituents.
Thao’s family fled to the United States from Laos, which was amidst a genocide against her people, the Hmong. She was born in Stockton, California, and when she was very young, she left an abusive relationship and slept in her car and on people’s couches. In this way, she relates to the impoverished and empathizes with them in her policy.
Harbin-Forte said that Thao “has blood on her hands.” In the letter, she accused the mayor of, among other things, “systematically dismantling the Oakland police department” and missing the deadline to apply for millions of dollars of grant funds towards combating theft. This is on top of the rising crime under her watch.
“Businesses were not leaving Oakland at this pace before she came into office,” Harbin-Forte noted. “So we can't pretend that there is no correlation between her decisions and what is happening with the city now.”
Thao has conceded that the buck stops with her. Addressing the missed grant deadline, she said “I am the mayor. So I take full responsibility for that.”
It certainly seems that even Thao would agree that she has made mistakes. But is a recall effort warranted? Three main questions will be explored to determine whether a recall is the answer. Namely:
Can the rise in crime be attributed to Thao’s policies as mayor?
Are the current numbers in crime so unprecedented as to necessitate new leadership immediately?
Is Thao actively working to curb the crime surge?
Upon answering these questions, it will be clear whether it is an appropriate move to recall Mayor Thao.
Can the rise in crime be attributed to Thao’s policies as mayor?
A key implication behind the recall effort is that Thao is at fault for the current rise in crime. Harbin-Forte asserts that “she didn't inherit all these problems. She caused several problems.” But does this premise hold any water?
Critics point to a couple of actions that Thao took which can be seen as undermining the criminal justice system. The first is that Thao did not appoint a permanent police chief to replace the one let go a year ago. She has since resolved that issue, finally appointing one.
This leaves the most compelling concern to be the grant deadline. Indeed, many other Bay Area cities, including San Jose and Palo Alto, have been able to earn the funding that Thao’s administration failed to secure.
To be sure, Thao may not have been directly responsible for this mishap, with decentralization and City Administrator Jestin Johnson having a great share of the blame for the grant application falling through the cracks. Johnson’s office released a statement on the matter, noting how they are working to hire someone who would specifically handle grant applications. But, to use Thao’s terminology, it is clear the buck stops with her when it comes to these concerns.
While there are more direct matters Thao has been confronted with, one could argue that failures in other areas, such as the homelessness crisis, infrastructure, and local businesses, may indirectly lead to increasing crime as well.
Moreover, there is a correlation between Thao’s administration and the recent wave of crime.
Julian Pierce has been a resident of Oakland for decades. He told CBS San Francisco that he only started having violent crime on his block this month. “I just installed a security camera today because someone got held up at gunpoint in front of my house a week ago.”
The statistics back Pierce’s experience. There have been significant surges in violent crime and property crime in 2023.
The alarming rise in crime under Thao’s mayorship is undeniable, and while it may be difficult to draw a direct line from Thao’s policies to the present situation it is hard to challenge this attribution either since recall supporters can point to specific failures on the mayor’s part that correlate with the escalating crime crisis in Oakland.
Are the current numbers in crime so unprecedented as to necessitate new leadership immediately?
While it could be argued that Thao’s policies are connected to recent crime numbers, a recall is an extreme measure to take. The question, then, is if the situation is so dire and unprecedented as to require immediate action to get rid of the mayor, as opposed to just voting her out of office in 2026.
Opponents of the recall correctly note that Oakland has seen worse crime numbers in the past. While this does not excuse the current rise attributable to Thao’s administration, it can bring the crisis into perspective when determining if a recall is needed.
Consider the fact that recall attempts appear to be a regular occurrence in Oakland. Former mayor Libby Schaaf was targeted for a recall in 2016. Another former mayor, Jean Quan, faced two recall petitions in 2012. In 2007 there was an attempted recall against Mayor Ron Dellums as well. None of these succeeded.
Even now there is a recall attempt against Oakland’s district attorney, Pamela Price — simultaneous with the recall effort against the mayor.
Since Oakland seems to have a history of making liberal use of the power to attempt a recall — which is an extreme measure — how can one be sure that the present situation is any different?
Is Thao actively working to curb the crime surge?
Perhaps the recall effort is extreme and unwarranted. Thao may need more time for the effects of her policies to be visible — which begs the question: what is she doing to combat the crime crisis?
For one thing, Thao announced in January (shortly after the recall effort was official) that she is resurrecting Operation Ceasefire, which she describes as more focused and evidence-based. It is an approach that combines social work with “focused enforcement” for those who “continue to engage in gun violence.” Thao argues that when Operation Ceasefire was no longer in effect in 2020, homicides surged.
Also, in September of 2023, Thao announced plans to increase funding for the 911 response system.
Finally, as previously noted, there is the appointment of a new police chief.
For these reasons, it would be tough to argue that Thao is not making an effort to combat crime. She has evidence to suggest that Operation Ceasefire could work, though it could take more time than recall advocates may allow.
To recall, or not to recall?
While there is certainly a rise in crime under Thao’s watch, the levels are not unprecedented, and the mayor is working to curb this surge. The situation can certainly change by the time voters make their decision this November, as of now it seems too early to take the extreme measure of removing the mayor in the middle of her term.