Third Way: Has Biden Kept His Promises To Young Voters?

Sergio Mendoza Hochmann

The 2020 election was historic; despite taking place during an unprecedented pandemic, the election showed huge waves of voter turnout. Specifically, more young voters showed up than in any previous election, carrying President Biden to victory. However, since that victory, Biden’s polling with young people has plummeted.

Some speculate it is the handling of foreign policy, while others argue it is the student debt crisis and climate change that has soured his reputation. While all these factors likely played a role, they are key to understanding how the 2024 election will shake out. Young voters will make up an even larger faction in 2024 so their votes play a huge role in the overall turnout. Biden must work to regain their favor.

2020 Turnout

In 2020, between 49-52% of eligible young voters showed up, an increase from 2016 when only 42% of eligible young voters showed up. The voters who did show up preferred Biden by a whopping 25-point margin, especially in battleground states.

In Michigan, young voters preferred Biden by 62% and in Arizona, Biden had a 24-point lead over Trump with young voters. Additionally, in Georgia, Biden received 188,000 more young votes than Trump and 154,000 more in Pennsylvania.

Further, young people of color were even more key to Biden’s victory. While White youth favored Biden by 51%, Latino youth favored him by 73% and Black youth by 87%. These percentages were huge in such a close race and especially in such close battleground states.

Issues Young Voters Care About

A huge reason for these key victories with young voters was the issues Biden campaigned on. The main issues young voters cared about were student debt relief, climate change, and criminal justice reform. Student debt relief was a huge issue among young voters since they were grappling with the overwhelming debt.

Regarding that Biden wrote, “I propose to forgive all undergraduate tuition-related federal student debt from two- and four-year public colleges and universities for debt holders earning up to $125,000, with appropriate phase-outs to avoid a cliff. The federal government would pay the monthly payment in lieu of the borrower until the forgivable portion of the loan was paid off. This benefit would also apply to individuals holding federal student loans for tuition from private HBCUs and MSIs."

Further, he proposed immediately canceling $10,000 of debt per person and canceling interest on payments for those making $25,000 or less a year.

Regarding climate change, Biden announced a plan to spend 2 trillion over four years to increase the use of clean energy, have an emissions-free power sector by 2035, and net zero emissions by 2050. Further, he proposed that disadvantaged communities to receive 40% of all clean energy and infrastructure benefits.

For criminal justice reform, Biden proposed ending cash bail, private prisons, and the death penalty. He advocated for ending the distinction between crack and cocaine and decriminalizing cannabis. His plan also stressed the importance of supporting formerly incarcerated people by providing guaranteed housing upon finishing a sentence.

He also supported increasing access to educational, medical, and mental health resources for those currently or formerly incarcerated.

While the plans on these issues seem encouraging and reflective of what the young voters want, it is important to understand whether or not Biden has fulfilled these key promises and whether those issues are as important to young voters anymore.

Biden has made small progress with each of these issues. With student debt relief, he has canceled 126 billion for 3.6 million Americans. He also did relieve the $10,000 of debt per person, although the Supreme Court later struck it down.

With climate change, he has protected 21 million acres of public land and is on a path to cut carbon pollution by half by 2030. For criminal justice reform, he has nominated a record number of public defenders to federal appeals courts and pardoned all convictions for simple possession.

He has not, however, taken further action regarding banning the death penalty. While he has enacted some parts of these plans, it is not enough for young voters.

Current Polling

Young voters are polling poorly with Biden because of the state of the country. Currently, Biden is tied with Trump for young voters, Biden polling 30% and Trump 29%. That’s a huge decline from Biden’s 61% with young voters in 2020.

While Biden has enacted these issues of concern from 2020, there are now other concerns in the nation that are affecting how voters feel. Inflation has become a huge concern for young voters because of high prices; they are the voting bloc feeling the greatest effects of inflation due to their general lack of financial standing.

Further, Biden is facing backlash over the Israel-Hamas war from more progressive voters who did not favor his stance. The war also upsets voters who see billions being poured into other countries while issues like student debt and climate change are not being addressed. This young voter explains his position.

Since 2020, voting rights legislation has stalled in Congress. The Supreme Court rejected a student loan forgiveness plan. And high prices – from food to housing – are fueling economic anxieties that have come together to dampen enthusiasm for the possibilities of what the Biden administration could achieve. The tied polling suggests increased support for Trump, but that is not the case. - Kerry Singleton

Young voters have soured on Biden, but they are not necessarily for Trump. Rather, they are highly critical of what the president has prioritized over the last four years. Young voters do not have the strong ties to parties that older voters have. Rather, they are issue-centered. They see Biden working harder for issues older voters care about and are frustrated with the lack of progress on progressive issues.

Young voters also tend to be more idealistic in their voting. In 2020, young voters were optimistic about the possibility of a Biden presidency. Now, that idealism has weakened as young voters have increasingly criticized Biden’s administration.

Young voters are key to the 2024 victory, especially in battleground states. Student debt relief, climate change, and criminal justice reform are issues Biden has not done enough on to get their votes in 2024.

However, it is not just these issues. Inflation has huge ramifications, especially for young voters. Their enthusiasm continues to wane as they work harder to make less.

These voters are a strong voting bloc and decide these elections. It is beyond essential to listen to young voters’ concerns. They have no party affiliation and will stay home if they do not have issues to mobilize for. Biden must mobilize them.