Third Way: Is Hunter Biden Hurting Joe Biden's Political Prospects?
Visar Kryeziu / AP file
The government nearly shutdown last Saturday as a result of partisan bickering around the fiscal year budget. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, in an attempt to appease his side to vote to pass the budget, opened an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. The inquiry looked into Hunter’s business dealings with a Ukrainian company he worked for during his father’s vice presidency and it looks into his recent treatment in a criminal investigation. Many critics from the left have dismissed this inquiry as a political game and are worried about the political implications of this inquiry heading into 2024. Therefore, this begs the questions, is Hunter Biden’s record hurting Joe Biden politically and how would impeach effect 2024?
Hunter Biden
Hunter Biden has been under fire for the last several years for many alleged criminal activities. One of the biggest controversies, and a leading part of the impeachment inquiry, is Hunter Biden’s involvement in a Ukrainian energy company in 2014. When he joined, the company was undergoing investigation for corruption. The investigation at the time was being overseen by Vice President Biden. That same year, Hunter made 1.2 million from this company. While these facts do not bode well for the current president, there is not enough evidence at the moment to prove connection between these events. Further, Hunter Biden was also under investigation by the Department of Justice in 2020 for criminal violations of taxes and money laundering. He has also struggled with addiction issues. He purchased a gun and asserted on a government form he was not currently on drugs, which later proved to be false. He then pled guilty to two counts of failing to pay his taxes on time and accepted terms that would allow him to avoid prosecution for a falsified statement made when purchasing the gun. This rather long laundry list is not exhaustive of Hunter Biden’s legal troubles and issues; however, the impeachment inquiry opened in September of 2023 regards Hunter Biden’s involvement in the Ukrainian energy company while Joe Biden was investigating it and in Hunter Biden’s supposed easy investigation that allowed him to avoid prosecution for the gun violation. While that charge has now also been brought up, House Republicans claim these two issues demonstrate Joe Biden’s corruption to help his son.
What Polling Shows Us
While the issues plaguing the Bidens are vast, many Democrats wonder how stories of Hunter Biden and this potential impeachment could impact the 2024 election. Currently, Biden has a narrow 4-point lead over Donald Trump. Therefore, this election is going to be extremely close if those two candidates are the chosen contenders. Recent polling, however, shows only 33% of Americans are concerned about Biden’s potential wrongdoing. Further, polling demonstrates a clear political divide based on party identity, with 66% of Republicans highly concerned, compared to just 7% of Democrats. Additionally, another poll shows 56% of Americans believe Congress should not proceed with the impeachment, with 88% of Democrats opposing impeachment and 73% of Republicans supporting it. Therefore, opinions about impeachment remain highly partisan.
Impeachment
Impeachment, in general, does not appear to be a useful tool anymore to keep the president in line. Half of Americans have said Congress’ vote to impeach would make no difference on their vote in 2024. It seems clear here that even with an impeachment inquiry, Joe Biden does not necessarily hurt politically. He does not lose his base and those against him remain the most expectant of impeachment proceedings. 50% of voters will not change their votes, regardless of the outcome, demonstrating the strength of partisanship. A U.S. president has only been impeached 4 times: Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump, twice. Not once has an impeachment from the House of Representatives led to a conviction in the Senate. Therefore, impeachment seems more indicative of a slap on the wrist than a real threat to a president’s job security. What is important to note about past presidential impeachments, is the effect on approval rating. Both Donald Trump and Bill Clinton saw improved approval ratings after their impeachment. Trump had his highest approval rating ever at 47%, days after his first acquittal. Bill Clinton’s highest approval rating, 73% also came when Republicans were considering impeachment proceedings. Further, among independents, Trump’s approval leaped in the month of impeachment from the mid 30s to 51%. Impeachment, if anything, further solidifies support from the president’s base. Additionally, it seems to sway independent voters at times if they are convinced the trial is unfair to the sitting commander in chief.
How much does impeachment do? Constitutionally, it serves as an important check on power. However, in recent years, with increased polarization, threats of impeachment have become part of the political game if members of Congress disagree with a sitting president. In addition, when cases of impeachment arise, it rouses the president’s base to be more supportive and has the potential to win over moderates. Increased partisanship has hurt the power of impeachment to serve as a check on the president since members of political parties cannot act independent of them. Therefore, Hunter Biden’s current issues do not hurt Joe Biden’s prospects in 2024. His base is not convinced of these issues and if it came to an impeachment, it could improve Biden’s approval ratings. His slim majority in the Senate would work to save his job if it came to that as well. Joe Biden should work to rouse his base by building a strong platform for 2024 and save himself the headache of worrying about the political consequences of an issue that has failed to have real political consequences.