Third Way: Republicans are winning on Immigration

Chicago Tribune

New York Governor Kathy Hochul recently blamed President Biden for the lack of federal aid and assistance regarding the recent influx of migrants to the state of New York. This criticism has shocked people given party unity towards the president and Democrats’ usual position on the issue of immigration. Immigration, while always a contentious political issue, has become increasingly partisan in recent years. The Trump administration’s bold statements regarding immigration as well as increased attention to the Southern border has pushed immigration to the forefront of partisan debates. In recent months, this issue has once again been brought to the front of public attention as Governors Abbott and Desantis began busing migrants to northern cities beginning in April of 2022. This influx of migrants to northern cities has overwhelmed local governments and their resources, leading people like Hochul to beg for help with the issue. Further, these events have led voters to question how well Democratic leaders can deal with an issue of this magnitude. Therefore, the current issue of migrant overflow requires federal government intervention to prevent harm to 2024 electoral outcomes.    

This surge in migrants in Northern cities is the result of both a political stunt and increased instability in South American regions. Beginning in April of 2022, Governors Greg Abbott and Ron Desantis began a political stunt to bus and fly migrants to Northern cities to make the point that stricter immigration laws need to be put in place to prevent the tax on resources. These leaders claimed that Democrats were able to be more passive towards immigration because they were not currently dealing with the numbers Texas was. Abbott sent 34,000 migrants since April of 2022, 13,000 of which have ended up in New York. Currently, New York has 100,000 migrants, meaning the majority of migrants arriving have not been bused from Texas. The ones that have been bused, however, tend to be the most destitute, accepting the free transportation since they did not have the means to travel beyond Texas. While the media has remained focused on the politics of both Southern governors, it is important to note that the majority of this issue is independent of the governors’ decision to bus. A big cause of the influx is the recent migration from Venezuela. Over 7 million people have migrated from Venezuela, a country comprised of only 28 million people, making it the 2nd largest displacement of people in the world. While migrants are moving up to many Northern cities, New York City is a unique situation as it has a right to shelter law, meaning the government must provide shelter for everyone who lives there. The migrants are coming in such huge numbers that the migrant facilities and homeless shelters are being overrun, leading the city to purchase hotels to house the migrants, losing as much as 8 million a day on this. Further, asylum seekers are not eligible for work permits for at least 6 months after their asylum status is filed. Given the huge numbers of migrants, the normal 6 month wait period is also backlogged. Therefore, the situation is incredibly difficult to deal with and is putting an enormous strain on resources.

Despite New York being a Democratic state and Democrats being more favorable towards immigrants, recent polls show perceptions of immigration, even by Democrats as shifting. Pew research found in 2022, 57% of Americans believed increasing deportation for immigrants living here illegally should be very or somewhat important goal of U.S. immigration. In New York, the polls are even more shocking with 82% of New Yorkers saying the influx of migrants is a serious problem. Further, 58% of New Yorkers believe New York has done enough for immigration and restrict migration while up to 60% of independents said its time to curb the flow of migrants. Additionally, polls for Joe Biden, Kathy Hochul, and Mayor Eric Adams, have  worsened as a result of the crisis. This poll found Biden’s unpopularity higher than his popularity for the first time in New York, with 59% disapproval. He also now only leads Trump by 13 points, a sharp decrease from his 22-point lead in June. Hochul has a 51% disapproval and Adams has a 47% disapproval. It is clear with these polls, that New Yorkers are fed up with the issue of immigration and are beginning to believe Democrat leaders are incapable of solving it.

This becomes a huge issue for the 2024 election, which is shaping up to be both contentious and close. Democrats have strongly opposed Trump era restrictions on immigration, citing human rights violations and advocating for better pathways to citizenship over border security. While that remains a Democrat priority, it is clear that there needs to be improved solutions fast in order to save their chances in the election next year. One of the things Hochul is asking for is for federal assistance for this issue. The federal government should be helping to relocate migrants, not state or local governments since they have more resources. Further, the federal government needs to provide FEMA aid to these cities to provide migrants with housing and food without putting a further strain on city resources. Finally, it is essential that the government expedite work authorizations for migrants so that they are not stuck waiting for 6 months. One recommendation suggests migrants apply for work authorization before applying for asylum status to speed the process up. If the federal government does not aid these cities, Democrats have no chance in 2024.

 The recent influx of migrants, resulting from new instability in places like Venezuela, is overwhelming local cities’ resources. These places, run by Democrats, are hurting politically as they fail to find a solution for the thousands of migrants needing to be sheltered. As the numbers continue to climb, officials need to look towards new and effective solutions. Expediting the work authorization and increasing federal aid to these cities is essential for aiding the migrants and helping to decrease the strain on resources. With many elections coming up in 2024, especially a particularly close presidential one, Democrats must prove they can swiftly address this issue in order to maintain the ground won in 2020.