Latin Analysis: The Mexican-Brazilian Rivalry and Its Implications for Environmental Leadership
@ Mariano Sayn/ husayno.com/kutaytanir
Mexico and Brazil are the two biggest countries in Latin America in terms of economy, geography, and population density. Indeed, both countries’ nationals make up for more than 50% of the Latino population and comprise more than 60% of the region’s GDP. Because of that, for many years now, there has been an ongoing diplomatic “rivalry” amongst the two countries, which have played a passive-aggressive game towards gaining the absolute economic and political leadership amongst Latinos. Even when this enmity has not permeated the societies – as both Mexicans and Brazilians have favorable views of each other – the competitiveness amidst nations in the political sphere has, at times, reached such tension, that experts have even described this dynamic as a Latin American “Cold War”.
A Continuous Competition
During the past two decades, Mexico’s and Brazil’s overall economic performance boosted at a rate that no other Latino country could match. Both nations, aware of the parallel development performance of the other, began, on the international level, voicing their goodwill to strengthen trade relations with one another to further foster their financial growth. Hence, on paper, both states have always shared nothing but cordial relations with one another. In practice, however, the passive-aggressive dynamics reflected on diplomats contending to get the highest positions on International Organizations (the latest example being Roberto Azevedo winning WTO’s top job over Herminio Blanco), each country teaming up with different nations to create free trade agreements (Mexico joining Canada and the US in NAFTA and Brazil leading MERCOSUR with South Americans), and both unceasingly fighting each other to get a permanent seat on United Nations’ committees (particularly on the Security Council). Political tensions were even shown amongst heads of state, as former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (popularly known as “Lula”) declared back in 2014 that “everything (regarding economic factors) is worse in Mexico than in Brazil”. Therefore, showing that the good intentions of collaborating between one another, did not ultimately translate into actions.
While Mexico has been focused on strengthening its economic relations with the other two North American nations, Brazil opted to seek international recognition and leadership through focusing on environmentalist politics, given that it recognized its increasing relevance in the transnational sphere.
Brazil’s efforts on investing in green energy production – such that it became one of the top producers of clean electricity – as well as in re-forestation policies and green job-creation, made the country an indisputable world leader in environmental matters. Thus, the country was placed in a positive light within the international community, as it was praised for its responsible use of natural resources, green innovation, and positive multifactor productivity; that is, for positively creating spillovers of production factors, economies of scale, and labor efficiency within its population and its economy.
Source: World Bank
As the graphs show, from the 2000s, Brazil decreases significantly the deforestation of the Amazon forest, while it boosts its GDP per capita. Hence, showing how its economy decreased its reliance on land exploitation such that it considerably lowered its CO2 emissions.
Source: Global Carbon Project
Given that Brazil was able to place itself in such a positive light within the global community, it called the attention of multiple international foreign direct investors that further boosted its environmental efforts. Likewise, establishing its leadership in a matter of such growing transnational interest, allowed it to collaborate hand-in-hand with other environmental leaders, such as the EU, such that it was recognized, not only within the Latin American countries but on a global scale, as the most promising country in matters of green economic growth and leadership. As a consequence of this, experts suggested that Mexico became more pressured to find new ways to attract foreign investors, as it had been outshined by the Portuguese-speaking country’s innovation and moral superiority.
New Administrations
Despite the seemingly Brazilian preference for green growth, during the last decade, Brazilians voiced their disagreement with the environmentalist approach that the governments had taken, as they considered that the agricultural industry (which is culturally highly valued by Brazilians) had been hindered for years. Additionally, many people argued that the Amazonian forest was the property of Brazilians and should be used and exploited to benefit the nationals. Henceforth, Brazil elected its populist far-right leader, Jair Bolsonaro in 2018, who promised to prioritize these ideas during his administration.
Accordingly, then, when he became head of state, Brazil ceased to be the environmental leader it had been during the last years, such that it significantly reduced its investment in green technologies and alarmingly increased its rate of deforestation. This has kept on happening since Bolsonaro became president in 2019 and despite backlash from civil societies and the international community.
Coincidentally – and almost simultaneously – Mexicans also elected Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) who led an opposing leftist perspective, and as such, had promised to increase efforts on environmental protection. Henceforth, many experts had established that this was Mexico’s chance to get the position of Latin American environmental leader that brazil had left vacant, as well as it lessened the international community’s concerns on Brazil’s sudden change of positions regarding the environment. Despite expectations, however, AMLO had not greened the Mexican political economy as scholars had expected. In fact, he had received harsh criticism from the international media as being “irresponsible” and “disregarding” the environment, as he has been carrying infrastructure projects (as a new airport and construction of a train) without significant research regarding its environmental impact and economic implications, as well as he has not stepped up within the international organizations and agreements with the leadership that it had been expected.
Besides, the COVID-19 outbreak and the highly questionable measures imposed by both heads of state, Bolsonaro and AMLO have further harmed their nations’ public health systems and economies. Hence, even when both states had been rivaling over a continental “leader” position, it is no longer expected for any to consolidate as such given their unprecedented current social and political instability.
A Possible New Leader?
There have been several Latin American countries that have stepped up as environmental advocates – particularly Costa Rica and Bolivia. Scholars recognize that; however, these don’t have the same influence over the continent as some of the bigger Latino nations.
Nevertheless, in recent years, a country that had been increasingly calling the attention of international investors worldwide is that of Colombia, as it had shown a rising economic growth as well as had increased its role as a key participant in international organizations. This is so much so, that it recently joined the OECD – considered the “rich countries club”. Consequently, many political experts had started considering the nation as a possible third agent that might position itself as a Latin American leader, particularly when it comes to environmental protection. This has been the case as there has been much societal pressure on the government to increase its green investment and improve the protection of natural areas, as well as it should comply with OECD’s regulation on environmental protection and its green indicators will increase international scrutiny as a result. Yet, it has been established that it is still too early to ensure that Colombia will thrive over Mexico and Brazil regarding green leadership, as not only is the current president, Iván Duque Márquez, following a development plan that contemplates the deforestation of over 220,000 forest hectares, but the country is also facing severe social unrest and economic downfall.
The panorama is currently unclear, as the entire Latin American region is facing an exceptional crisis that will have lasting consequences on societies and economies. Hence, rivalries and diplomatic relations between Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and the rest of Latin America is expected to change dramatically. Political experts hope this will lead to more positive south-south collaboration instead of the increasing rivalry they have shown in the past.
